Tennis 5/21

Books-
Spread 1326
Totals 296

Bets- Fognini -3 -110 over Darcis

Tennis 5/18

So books -

Spread: 1126
Totals: 296

Bets:
Gasquet +5 against Ferrer -114

It feels really good to just have a plain winning day, after the month we've been having. We had considered wawrinka -4 over Seppi, glad we didn't take it, would have been a loss (also Djok -5 over Monaco, which pushed).

With how well we did last month, its natural to feel like we're unstoppable, and we fell into that trap. We took picks we were on the fence about in our pride, and we've paid for it. Learning to ride the highs and the lows is something I'm glad we're going through on paper, but hopefully we have learned to keep ourselves distant enough to take nothing when there's nothing there, and 4 picks when there are 4 picks there.

Tennis 5/16

berdych -3 over almagro -106

I know books need to be updated... they're in the range of 900/300 spread and totals respective.

Tennis 5/16

isner -2 over seppi -110
wawrinka -2.5 over tipsarevic -104

Tennis 5/11

And down we go (1-2). April was amazing but May has been killer.

Books:
Spread -  946
Totals - what it was

Play today is Djokovic/Tipsarevic < 20.5. The line is djok -5 but this is more like djok -3.5 unless there are 7-game sets. You always get a little extra with the under because of that but you're getting quite a lot here. And we think Djok can do a break a set here.

Tennis 5/9 - edit 5/10

Ow.

Spread: 1214
Totals: 536

Bets are -

berdych -3.5 over monfils -120
simon -2.5 over tips -125
djokovic -4 over wawrinka -109

Tennis 5-7 & 5-8

Rough loss, think we did take it below -3 so using -120 juice.

Books:
Spread:1838
Totals:536

Bets -
5-7
youzhny over marti -4.5 -114
baghdatis -1.5  over garcia-lopez +114

5-8
400 gasquet -1.5 over bellucci -104
EDIT: also ramos -3.5 over delbonis -104

200 on each unless otherwise noted ofc. Can you believe this, lines a day in advance? Crazy.

EDIT: So its a true push with Youzhny winning and another loss (at least no juice) on Baghdatis. Man he's been godawful to us this month, 0-2 and the others we had considered he would have lost. Time to put the hammer down on all this considering of Baghdatis as a pick, when he should be a fade the way he's playing. We're adapting too slowly.

Tennis 5/5

2-0 for the day. Dat Andujar line... we shoulda made it a lock, it jumped out to both of us.

Very happy to be back in the black for the tournament week (7-5 so far, Note to self for future calculations 5-5 in May so far).

Books:
Spread:  2318
Totals: 536

OK so. The play is
400 Gasquet -? -?

The line right now is -3 -103, but I coulda swore when we settled on it it was 2.5, and that was a factor in making it a lock. So professional here... We'll see if dad remembers, and set the juice at -120 as a penalty if he remembers it -2.5, regardless of outcome. Otherwise its taken -3 -103, still as a lock.

Tennis 5/4

0-1 w a postponement. EDIT 1-1, ATP website derped but neiminen had won and covered.

Todays are
andujar -3 -104 over rosol
lopez -2.5 -108 over tomic


Oh we're starting a fucking around book, money line. We experimented earlier with money line in tennis and took a loss, and in football were not impressed with the small win we had given the risks. So this is purely for fun. Bets here will be 100 on dogs and to win 100 on favs... and if you look at some of the numbers you'll understand why the units are smaller, and why this is a fuck-around book. With my expected bankroll size, actually playing these would mean putting down over 30% of bankroll on gasquet for a big 2.5% profit. Sure, it's a "sure thing" but real money? Yea right. Anyway, bets here -
kohlschrieber even up -440
gasquet over de la nava -1300
bagh +175 x2

Tennis 5-3

Ouch, 1-2 again. Going to watch Baghdatis as a possible fade if he keeps having sets like that.

Books (4k bankroll, both in the black)-
Spread: 1950
Totals: 536

Bets (200 on)-
lopez -4 over stakhovsky -116
nieminen -2.5 over veic -116

Tennis 5/2

Tough day (1-2). Shoulda gotten away from Gimeno-Traver - he hadn't done anything recently. Was able to get away from a Davydenko play for the same reason, that woulda been disastrous at -145.

Books (4k bankroll, both in black)-
Spread: 2210
Totals: 536

Gonna be-
baghdatis -4 over brown -112
cipolla -3 v munoz de la nava -118
nalbandian -4.5 v bedene -108

200 ofc.

Tennis 5/1

What a nice way to start the tournament week (2-0)! And there are c. 30 lines for tomorrow, I love it.

Books -
Spread: +2444
Totals: +536

Bets-
200 on
starace -3 over goffin -101
gimeno-traver -3 over navarro -112
fognini -2.5 over paire -105

Win-loss record for April:
 Spread - 19-8-2.
Totals - 1-0-1.

Pushes aside, 70.37% win rate. AMAZING month.

Tennis 4/30

200 Tomic -3.5 over Rochus -114
200 Dodig -2.5 over Unger -113

Books -
Spread: +2044
Totals: +536
Sets:  +174

Tennis 4/26

There we go! Books -

Spread: +2266
Totals: +536
Sets:  +174

Bets -
200 lopez -2.5 v nieminen -104
200 baghdatis -1.5 v fognini +106
200 troicki -3.5 v bachinger -111

Tennis 4/25

-104 yesterday., all from that ridiculous juice on a 2-2 day.

Today -

200 anderson -1.5 over delbonis -106
200 raonic -2 over andreev -112
400 lopez -2.5 over cipolla -117

Still kinda juicy, if not as bad as yesterday.

Tennis 4/24

200 andujar -4.5 -133
200 garcia-lopez -3 +101
200 dodig -2 -120
200 hanescu -3 -123

Healthy juice here...

Tennis 4/21

200 djokovic -4 over berdych -113
200 nadal/simon < 19 -117

Its tough to bet on both semis, this deep in the tournament. You have to wonder in a spot like this if you're trying to push past an average performance so far (5-4-1) and bound to turn your small gain into a loss.

But I can't really get away from it. Djok is 8-1 against Berdych, only loss on grass. His 6-4 6-2 today is slightly underwhelming for him considering his opponent, but he pointed to his emotions following his grandfather's death as part of the trouble and I believe it. I also think he's going to get it under control and go win one for the gipper. This is a tough line for the books to make, they're pretty pinned into Djok -4 since it seems the most likely result, but I see 5 as more likely than 3 here. I know you got a server like Berdych who sees a ton of tiebreakers, but here on clay....

As for the under w/ nadal, Simon just doesn't have the weapons to hurt Nadal on clay at all. He's not going to outrally him, no one can, and that's Simon's game. I'm taking the under because it's hard to see Simon winning a set, and in 2 sets the under's a better bet than -5.5 cause 6-4 6-3 a push and not a loss. Also saves a few juice and I sorely need that here, laying out nearly -120 on both these. Can't get away from em though.

Books-
spread: +1370
Totals: +536
Set: +174

Tennis 4/20

200 tsonga -2.5 over simon -107
200 murray/berdych > 22 -101

Books-
Game Spread: +1584

Totals: +336

Set Line: +174

Tennis 4/18

A rough push (1-1-1, net change -$8) and I'm going to hear it from my father for counseling against Fognini over Llodra. We cut more losses than wins though, so its not that disconcerting.

Bets to come. Early lean to Melzer -2.5 over Benneteau. Lots of large lines today, we need to get more comfortable with those.

EDIT. tomorrow's match:
400 melzer -2.5 -112 over benneteau
200 simon -4 -116 over gil

Tennis 4/17

Another good day. Books:
 Game Spread: +1840

Totals: +336

Set Line: +174

Tennis for 4/17:

200 volandri -3.5 -125 vs Gianessi

200 youzhny -3 -104 v Gil

400 andujar -3 117 vs. del Bonis

Andujar is going to bury delbonis. Send him on his bike.