Welcome! Week 8 ATS

Hello hello. This blog is going to serve as record as I test out different bets and try to become a good handicapper before I put the money on the line next year. I will be keeping different books to see how different types of bets do. All books based off 4k bankroll.  Season-to-date (since week 3, when I started this format, although started parlays week 5, money week 4):
Book 1, best spread: +600, up 380 last week.
Book 2, diverse spread: -470, down 150 last week.
Book 3, best money line: -1240, down 1200 last week (damn ravens).
Book 4, diverse money line: +500, off last week.
Book 5, parlays: -570, down 600 last week.

But nothing conclusive so far as I continue to learn. Except maybe staying away from large money line bets.

For reasoning behind week 8 best bets (and thoughts on wk 7), which has been consistently productive, see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfOUwuKrrmM

Here are the books for week 8:
Bk 1, best spread (+600)
400 buf -5 v was
200 ne -2 @ pit
200 nyg -9.5 v mia
EDIT: 200 no -13 @ stl

Bk 2, diverse spread (-470)
200 buf -5 v was
200 ne -2 @ pit
200 nyg -9.5 v mia
200 no -13 @ stl
100 sf -9 v cle
(100 ari + bal < 43.5) edit -didn't take
100 det -2.5 @ den edit edit - taking it at -3.
EDIT: 100 min/car > 46.5
EDIT: Ended up taking 200 on SD to beat KC, sadly.

Bk 3, best money (-1240)
840 buf (to win 300)

Bk 4, diverse money (+500)
560 buf (200)
460 hou (100)
550 nyg (100)
850 no (100)

Bk 5, parlays (-570)
200 ne -2.5 ne/pit > 50.5 (all parlays to win 520)
200 hou -9.5 + hou/jax > 40.5
200 sd -3.5 + sd/kc > 44

Very incestuous this week. And book 2 may come to look more like book 1, if Bradford isn't healthy (didn't practice today, cast off, we'll see tomorrow) I think NO -13 is a better bet than even the Buf bet, and I'll have to break the 3-bet rule and add it to book 1. This line has been off and I thought it would come back on over 17, and that I would take it then... aside from stating the obvious about this game, lets also remember that NO has been running the ball very well and STL has THE worst run defense in the league.

I took SF -9 v CLE largely on strength of san francisco's redzone defense and the failure of cleveland to put up points (27th). Hard to see them getting much here, and they'll be facing that vicious bastard (and I mean that in the best possible way) Harbaugh coming off the bye. They certainly didn't mercy rule TB, putting up 48 - I think this is one of those teams that will continue to score, even when the game is won, hopefully putting it out of range for CLE to score late and cover. If Hillis does play, he won't be 100%, and there's dissension in the ranks about how committed to CLE he is anyway. CLE's d only looked so amazing against SEA because they knew the throw was coming with Lynch out, and I actually think SF will be more multi-dimensional than they have been in the past now that Braylon Edwards is coming back. Look for more in the air.

If wells is out for Arizona, I like the under with the ravens. Two weak offenses and a strong defense, and that under's 43.5. I could see the ravens holding the Cards to 9 or 12, without Wells. And Arizona has an above average run d, which may make the ravens look silly like they did against the Jags. If stafford looks like he will play, I'm tempted to add det -2.5 @ den, they've been sliding and are due for a turnaround. Tebow didn't look reliable at miami. Also tempted to add Hou -9.5, although I think its stronger as a parlay, if Johnson plays I may have to take both, depending on Stafford and Wells (1100 max for that book).

I'm taking buffalo as my best money line play this week largely because of washington's injuries. Most of my reasoning is in the youtube video, so even though it's not so pertinent here I'm going to say I'll never again place a money line bet on an anemic offense, no matter how good their defense (ravens). If washington does keep this game close it'll be a defensive struggle, and I like buffalo to come out on top late in the fourth quarter if that somehow happens. The only other games I like better for absolute wins are NYG over miami and NO over STL, and the price is just too much better here (can't see myself putting down 2.5k to win 300 on NO, because what if).

On to book four. The theory here is that if I win 3 and lose 1, the 3 will be a hedge and keep the loss minor. Still going to need 80+% on these money line picks, esp. later in the season since the lines seem to be getting larger on the teams most likely to win reliably. This week the math doesn't quite add up, although a loss on the middle two bets won't be devastating.

Alright, Houston. Too strong an offense to see a loss to jacksonville's flailing offense. Johnson practiced today, and may play.

Most of my reasoning on NYG is in the youtube vid, but the culture of losing in miami bears emphasis. Even if they somehow beat the spread, they will find a way to lose.

NO over STL. Most of it I'll leave unsaid, but again, look for NO's strong run game to be a factor against STL's weak run defense. And bradford may not play.

Parlays. See my youtube vid for why I think NE will come out on top, but I'll say why I think there's strong correlation with the over. If Pit is to win or cover, the game will be more of a defensive struggle, with Pit coming out maybe 24 21, or some weird loss by 1 or 2. If NE covers, it'll be a shootout. NE defense cannot shut down pit, or anyone, really.

Hou -9.5 and over 40.5. Parlay delight, I think, with a huge spread and a low over. I think Jacksonville can put up 13 or 16, with that kicker and facing a weak houston run defense. That means Hou doesn't have to break 30 to cover the over, and I see that highpowered offense as completely capable of breaking 30 as Jacksonville has more than their fair share of 3-and-outs.

The scary thing about the SD parlay is that I'm not staying home on monday night, or taking the loser in division to cover the spread in the rematch, two things I want to be doing. But I just like rivers and the chargers to bounce back from the jets loss, and not fuck around this week. There's no question they're the better team, and I look for that to show. I think they'll put up 28+, leaving 16-17 for KC. But I admit this is the parlay I feel least strongly about, because it's a division rematch where kansas city is at home on monday night, and San Diego has historically struggled early in the season.

So here my bets are recorded. And if anyone's reading this, I feel obliged to say I'm not responsible for any bets you make as a result of this (though if you were to bet based on my thoughts, I'd highly recommend the best spread bets since they've been doing much better). Take what you like of my reasoning, and good luck.