I stayed on injury watch this week and looked at a couple bets to add to book 2, which is the most open format (any spread/total, between 9-11 bets). I should also mention that we're so enamored with NO-13, what with their star tight end practicing and bradford sitting for STL (and it bears repeating, St. Louis' abysmal run defense against NO's 2 strong healthy running backs - their weakest back is out this week though), that we decided to place it in the best bets book as well, breaking our three-bets-only rule, because, frankly, it's even more of a lock than BUF over WAS.
The one bet we are going to take is Min/Car over 46.5. Christian Ponder definitely an improvement for Min, and AP's ankle "tweak" shouldn't slow him down, from what I've heard it doesn't sound serious. He's practicing, and should be able to run over Car's weak run defense (27-29th, don't remember). Minnesota's defense has been pretty weak too, I think both these teams are ranked high 20s in terms of points given up. Carolina's put up a ton of yards most games, and a healthy amount of points. It's hard not to like this to be at least a 27-24 win one way or another.
There are a couple other bets worth looking at, but we ended up staying away from them. You might like them though...
It woulda been peachy if andre johnson had been healthy to take the hou -9.5 line, I still feel pretty comfortable with it and took it as a parlay with the over, but it's a large line and we're a little scared of it without johnson. Hou's somewhat suspect run defense is good for the parlay, but bad for the straight up bet. I think I wrote a more detailed blurb about this game in the last post, so moving on.
My father is sold on Det -3 @ denver, but I'm not quite. Detroit's obviously been amazing in the air, and boasts a very solid defense. Yet Detroit is without jahvid best, and didn't have much of a running game to begin with. Teams seem to be zeroing in on this. The already injured and injury-prone Stafford will have a target on him, and could well get reinjured. And the defense surely will know the pass is coming. It's great that McGahee is out (for this bet) but Moreno is a capable back as well, so I'm not sure it's enough. Tim Tebow has heart, and looked okay against SD if not so much against Miami. He might find the range this week.
Edit: I lied, taking this bet. Hill, their backup, could get it done if stafford gets reinjured. Too much talent.
Lastly, we rejected arizona and baltimore under 43.5. Arizona is a team who has underperformed, and I feel like there's enough talent and they're very up and down and I'm not super familiar with them, so they could do their part sending this over, esp. with Wells playing (if he'da been out, this would be a great bet). Also, I fear my own nearsightedness about baltimore. Their offense was abysmal last week, but prior to that they were 4th in the league in points scored (granted, with help from their defense, but with Arizona consistently looking for Fitzgerald, this could be the week Reed gets a pick six to help put this over). A lot of the failure last week is due to Rice getting so few touches, and with Suggs and others outspoken this week he will get more touches.
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