What a nice way to start the tournament week (2-0)! And there are c. 30 lines for tomorrow, I love it.
Books -
Spread: +2444
Totals: +536
Bets-
200 on
starace -3 over goffin -101
gimeno-traver -3 over navarro -112
fognini -2.5 over paire -105
Win-loss record for April:
Spread - 19-8-2.
Totals - 1-0-1.
Pushes aside, 70.37% win rate. AMAZING month.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Tennis 4/30
200 Tomic -3.5 over Rochus -114
200 Dodig -2.5 over Unger -113
Books -
Spread: +2044
Totals: +536
Sets: +174
200 Dodig -2.5 over Unger -113
Books -
Spread: +2044
Totals: +536
Sets: +174
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Tennis 4/26
There we go! Books -
Spread: +2266
Totals: +536
Sets: +174
Bets -
200 lopez -2.5 v nieminen -104
200 baghdatis -1.5 v fognini +106
200 troicki -3.5 v bachinger -111
Spread: +2266
Totals: +536
Sets: +174
Bets -
200 lopez -2.5 v nieminen -104
200 baghdatis -1.5 v fognini +106
200 troicki -3.5 v bachinger -111
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Tennis 4/25
-104 yesterday., all from that ridiculous juice on a 2-2 day.
Today -
200 anderson -1.5 over delbonis -106
200 raonic -2 over andreev -112
400 lopez -2.5 over cipolla -117
Still kinda juicy, if not as bad as yesterday.
Today -
200 anderson -1.5 over delbonis -106
200 raonic -2 over andreev -112
400 lopez -2.5 over cipolla -117
Still kinda juicy, if not as bad as yesterday.
Tennis 4/24
200 andujar -4.5 -133
200 garcia-lopez -3 +101
200 dodig -2 -120
200 hanescu -3 -123
Healthy juice here...
200 garcia-lopez -3 +101
200 dodig -2 -120
200 hanescu -3 -123
Healthy juice here...
Friday, April 20, 2012
Tennis 4/21
200 djokovic -4 over berdych -113
200 nadal/simon < 19 -117
Its tough to bet on both semis, this deep in the tournament. You have to wonder in a spot like this if you're trying to push past an average performance so far (5-4-1) and bound to turn your small gain into a loss.
But I can't really get away from it. Djok is 8-1 against Berdych, only loss on grass. His 6-4 6-2 today is slightly underwhelming for him considering his opponent, but he pointed to his emotions following his grandfather's death as part of the trouble and I believe it. I also think he's going to get it under control and go win one for the gipper. This is a tough line for the books to make, they're pretty pinned into Djok -4 since it seems the most likely result, but I see 5 as more likely than 3 here. I know you got a server like Berdych who sees a ton of tiebreakers, but here on clay....
As for the under w/ nadal, Simon just doesn't have the weapons to hurt Nadal on clay at all. He's not going to outrally him, no one can, and that's Simon's game. I'm taking the under because it's hard to see Simon winning a set, and in 2 sets the under's a better bet than -5.5 cause 6-4 6-3 a push and not a loss. Also saves a few juice and I sorely need that here, laying out nearly -120 on both these. Can't get away from em though.
Books-
spread: +1370
Totals: +536
Set: +174
200 nadal/simon < 19 -117
Its tough to bet on both semis, this deep in the tournament. You have to wonder in a spot like this if you're trying to push past an average performance so far (5-4-1) and bound to turn your small gain into a loss.
But I can't really get away from it. Djok is 8-1 against Berdych, only loss on grass. His 6-4 6-2 today is slightly underwhelming for him considering his opponent, but he pointed to his emotions following his grandfather's death as part of the trouble and I believe it. I also think he's going to get it under control and go win one for the gipper. This is a tough line for the books to make, they're pretty pinned into Djok -4 since it seems the most likely result, but I see 5 as more likely than 3 here. I know you got a server like Berdych who sees a ton of tiebreakers, but here on clay....
As for the under w/ nadal, Simon just doesn't have the weapons to hurt Nadal on clay at all. He's not going to outrally him, no one can, and that's Simon's game. I'm taking the under because it's hard to see Simon winning a set, and in 2 sets the under's a better bet than -5.5 cause 6-4 6-3 a push and not a loss. Also saves a few juice and I sorely need that here, laying out nearly -120 on both these. Can't get away from em though.
Books-
spread: +1370
Totals: +536
Set: +174
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Tennis 4/20
200 tsonga -2.5 over simon -107
200 murray/berdych > 22 -101
Books-
Game Spread: +1584
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174
200 murray/berdych > 22 -101
Books-
Game Spread: +1584
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Tennis 4/18
A rough push (1-1-1, net change -$8) and I'm going to hear it from my father for counseling against Fognini over Llodra. We cut more losses than wins though, so its not that disconcerting.
Bets to come. Early lean to Melzer -2.5 over Benneteau. Lots of large lines today, we need to get more comfortable with those.
EDIT. tomorrow's match:
400 melzer -2.5 -112 over benneteau
200 simon -4 -116 over gil
Bets to come. Early lean to Melzer -2.5 over Benneteau. Lots of large lines today, we need to get more comfortable with those.
EDIT. tomorrow's match:
400 melzer -2.5 -112 over benneteau
200 simon -4 -116 over gil
Monday, April 16, 2012
Tennis 4/17
Another good day. Books:
Game Spread: +1840
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174
Tennis for 4/17:
200 volandri -3.5 -125 vs Gianessi
200 youzhny -3 -104 v Gil
400 andujar -3 117 vs. del Bonis
Andujar is going to bury delbonis. Send him on his bike.
Game Spread: +1840
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174
Tennis for 4/17:
200 volandri -3.5 -125 vs Gianessi
200 youzhny -3 -104 v Gil
400 andujar -3 117 vs. del Bonis
Andujar is going to bury delbonis. Send him on his bike.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Tennis 4/16
400 melzer -3.5 over kazbot -112
200 stepanek -2.5 over nieminen -110
200 kohlschrieber -3.5 over ruffin -125
200 stepanek -2.5 over nieminen -110
200 kohlschrieber -3.5 over ruffin -125
Saturday, April 14, 2012
5-0 baby! no tennis 4/14
Well we KILLED today, 3-0, now 5-0-1 on these two lil concurrent tourneys. Feeling more and more confident. Need to start calling some locks, really, we feel better about some of these than others and the money should reflect it.
Books-
Game Spread: +1462
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174
-A note: Andujar 4/13 refers to his first match, the only one that could be bet at time of post on 4/12. Sucks they had him play 2, we generally like him to beat Cipolla, but for that, even at -3.5.
-In that vein, I ain't scurred but I is, no need to stay perfect but there's just nothing to attack 4/14. Andreev too up and down to bet on his matches, we like Monaco ofc but @ -5.5? Too risky. We should possibly take isner -2 (-118 bleh), but IDK. Same excuse here. Anyway, early rounds do seem to be easier pickings lately, and there's a new tourney starting soon enough.
Books-
Game Spread: +1462
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174
-A note: Andujar 4/13 refers to his first match, the only one that could be bet at time of post on 4/12. Sucks they had him play 2, we generally like him to beat Cipolla, but for that, even at -3.5.
-In that vein, I ain't scurred but I is, no need to stay perfect but there's just nothing to attack 4/14. Andreev too up and down to bet on his matches, we like Monaco ofc but @ -5.5? Too risky. We should possibly take isner -2 (-118 bleh), but IDK. Same excuse here. Anyway, early rounds do seem to be easier pickings lately, and there's a new tourney starting soon enough.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Tennis 4/13 and musings on 4/12
For tomorrow, 200 on -
cipolla -1.5 +110
lopez +3 -110 over berlocq
andujar -2 -104
me- "Feliciano lopez plays berlocq..."
dad- "How many's lopez favored by?"
me- "Well I guess we're taking lopez +3."
Does seem like it will be close, and hard to tell which way it goes, but we'll take the dog here. We like andujar -2 a lot, but not quite as a lock. Figure cipolla probably wins, and we'll take the positive juice.
Re 4/12, gotten so sick of how late they leave the lines, I copied the lines down last night and we "bet" on them this eve before checking scores. Quotes cause we decided there wasn't anything worth playing. We were pretty close in our guesses though, were seriously considering betting Querrey's match went 3 and it did. We also thought Fish might continue to go south(he was -5). Wish we'd known his no-name opponent was a Houston native (tournament there), and had the guts to play money line. May as well wish it was real money too, while I was at it. Does make me want to go for ze big moneys like a crazy man occasionally in the future though.
Funny story though, my father said isner -4.5 might be worth something, but risky, and I thought I might have fixed the problem. I was talking about isner/zeballos < 21.5, because it allowed 6-4 6-4 which isner -4.5 didn't. And, so I said, it's so hard to cover 4.5 in 3 sets. Isner manages to win 6-7 6-4 6-2, covering 5 games with a lost set.....
Well I still tend to think long run the under will outperform in situations like this... 6-4 6-4 seems more common than 3-set 5+games covers (note that other 2-set outcomes are the same - 7-6 requires a 6-2 other set for both the total and the side, as 7-5 requires a 6-3 for both). Yet this is probably something I should look up. After all, a lot of matches do seem to have final sets with large margins of victory, as one player is mentally or physically exhausted.
cipolla -1.5 +110
lopez +3 -110 over berlocq
andujar -2 -104
me- "Feliciano lopez plays berlocq..."
dad- "How many's lopez favored by?"
me- "Well I guess we're taking lopez +3."
Does seem like it will be close, and hard to tell which way it goes, but we'll take the dog here. We like andujar -2 a lot, but not quite as a lock. Figure cipolla probably wins, and we'll take the positive juice.
Re 4/12, gotten so sick of how late they leave the lines, I copied the lines down last night and we "bet" on them this eve before checking scores. Quotes cause we decided there wasn't anything worth playing. We were pretty close in our guesses though, were seriously considering betting Querrey's match went 3 and it did. We also thought Fish might continue to go south(he was -5). Wish we'd known his no-name opponent was a Houston native (tournament there), and had the guts to play money line. May as well wish it was real money too, while I was at it. Does make me want to go for ze big moneys like a crazy man occasionally in the future though.
Funny story though, my father said isner -4.5 might be worth something, but risky, and I thought I might have fixed the problem. I was talking about isner/zeballos < 21.5, because it allowed 6-4 6-4 which isner -4.5 didn't. And, so I said, it's so hard to cover 4.5 in 3 sets. Isner manages to win 6-7 6-4 6-2, covering 5 games with a lost set.....
Well I still tend to think long run the under will outperform in situations like this... 6-4 6-4 seems more common than 3-set 5+games covers (note that other 2-set outcomes are the same - 7-6 requires a 6-2 other set for both the total and the side, as 7-5 requires a 6-3 for both). Yet this is probably something I should look up. After all, a lot of matches do seem to have final sets with large margins of victory, as one player is mentally or physically exhausted.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Tennis 4/11
Took lopez -3 before I looked at the result. It pushed. Here its impact is duly noted.
Frustrated by how late these lines go up... There's nothing we want at Hassan tomorrow, but
its even money, as it always is, whether they'll get lines up on the US clay court championship Thursday matches before I sleep.
Frustrated by how late these lines go up... There's nothing we want at Hassan tomorrow, but
its even money, as it always is, whether they'll get lines up on the US clay court championship Thursday matches before I sleep.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Tennis 4/10
200 hanescu (EDIT: -3. derp) -115 200 ramos/riba < 20.5 i forget the juice and it just started so we'll say -110. Was likely better juice, but possibly worse.
Edit: Winner winner chicken dinner...
Edit: Winner winner chicken dinner...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)