Tennis 4/13 and musings on 4/12

For tomorrow, 200 on -
cipolla -1.5 +110
lopez +3 -110 over berlocq
andujar -2 -104

me- "Feliciano lopez plays berlocq..."
dad- "How many's lopez favored by?"
me- "Well I guess we're taking lopez +3."
Does seem like it will be close, and hard to tell which way it goes, but we'll take the dog here. We like andujar -2 a lot, but not quite as a lock. Figure cipolla probably wins, and we'll take the positive juice.

Re 4/12, gotten so sick of how late they leave the lines, I copied the lines down last night and we "bet" on them this eve before checking scores. Quotes cause we decided there wasn't anything worth playing. We were pretty close in our guesses though, were seriously considering betting Querrey's match went 3 and it did. We also thought Fish might continue to go south(he was -5). Wish we'd known his no-name opponent was a Houston native (tournament there), and had the guts to play money line. May as well wish it was real money too, while I was at it. Does make me want to go for ze big moneys like a crazy man occasionally in the future though.

Funny story though, my father said isner -4.5 might be worth something, but risky, and I thought I might have fixed the problem. I was talking about isner/zeballos < 21.5, because it allowed 6-4 6-4 which isner -4.5 didn't. And, so I said, it's so hard to cover 4.5 in 3 sets.  Isner manages to win 6-7 6-4 6-2, covering 5 games with a lost set.....

Well I still tend to think long run the under will outperform in situations like this... 6-4 6-4 seems more common than 3-set 5+games covers (note that other 2-set outcomes are the same - 7-6 requires a 6-2 other set for both the total and the side, as 7-5 requires a 6-3 for both). Yet this is probably something I should look up. After all, a lot of matches do seem to have final sets with large margins of victory, as one player is mentally or physically exhausted.