200 pats -3 v bills + 49ers -3.5 @ rams (130)
200 jets +3 @ mia
200 bal straight up @ cinci (125)
no lock, just don't know. pats -3 is a lock, but its just a leg, 9ers w their situational football could win by 3. although its clemens and the rams, so... that may be worthy but week 17 so scary. bal straight up in cincy scares me the most, with boldan out, but i just like the veteran team here, better team too.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
NBA 12/31
-580, more like where I thought I'd be. Hopefully I'm learning something here. Hadn't put it up, but took Sac +1.5 and Sac/NYK under 201.5 because of NYK's injuries - now also staudemire in addition to butler and the other two. Keeping up on injuries has hurt me a lot lately as I didn't expect so many so early when I took the Knicks and Clips recently, so I'm trying to fade injured teams here. As I look at it though looks like the Knicks killing the kings, sans butler and staudemire is np tonight I guess. Ah, NBA.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Wk 17 Notepad
sides/totals
car/no > 54 how hard they playing?
lions -3 mccarthy wants all 3 qbs to play. think that matches that 3 tho.
dal/ny > 46 jones? want to see an even game. Too conserv? umenyiora
chi/min > 41 means nothing, min d.
jets +3 @ mia Bush out! line moving...
teases
pats -3 revenge, top seed, buffalo is effin crazy though, i swore off their games
49ers -3.5/4 check injuries
sea +10 picks from skellitor, skittles ran well against sf, 10 a lot
chiefs +10.5 cause broncos will go run after last week, so low-scorer. but orton, but chiefs.
ind +10.5/10 if no mjd
cowboys +10? but giants could run away w it, they more likely to win
car/no > 54 how hard they playing?
lions -3 mccarthy wants all 3 qbs to play. think that matches that 3 tho.
dal/ny > 46 jones? want to see an even game. Too conserv? umenyiora
chi/min > 41 means nothing, min d.
jets +3 @ mia Bush out! line moving...
teases
pats -3 revenge, top seed, buffalo is effin crazy though, i swore off their games
49ers -3.5/4 check injuries
sea +10 picks from skellitor, skittles ran well against sf, 10 a lot
chiefs +10.5 cause broncos will go run after last week, so low-scorer. but orton, but chiefs.
ind +10.5/10 if no mjd
cowboys +10? but giants could run away w it, they more likely to win
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
NBA betting, yesterday, today, tomorrow
Whew, NBA moves fast. Yesterday I picked a couple losers (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgOqtBXfhFQ), 200 on OKC -5 @ min (won by 4), 200 on dallas -4.5 v den (were killed). (Just firing away here because it helps me get a sense of the league in the early going, will remake books (win or lose) in a few weeks).
That brought the NBA total to +360, today I took (I sneaked these two picks past posterity, I will have no way to prove I pushed today) sac getting like 9ish it was a no cover anyway, and minnesota +5 which covered a close one, total at +340.
Leans for tomorrow, well here's my notepad - okc -1 @ mem, mebe sas -4 v lac, utah den < 204, mebe nyk -2.5 @ gs
Edit 12/28 5:55: here's yesterday's video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBjBayHs1HU
I am taking all 4, some of these may have started but I honestly don't know scores. Decided about 3pm to take all 4. Best lines on vegasinsider are OKC pickem, SAS -4, Utah/Den < 202.5, NYK -4.5. So. Lost a bit waiting on the Knicks 'cause of stephen curry, but they even more likely to cover cause of stephen curry (out). That utah/den under moved down, with good reason, and not enough to make me stay away. Still going to make that lock. So 400 on that, 200 others.
That brought the NBA total to +360, today I took (I sneaked these two picks past posterity, I will have no way to prove I pushed today) sac getting like 9ish it was a no cover anyway, and minnesota +5 which covered a close one, total at +340.
Leans for tomorrow, well here's my notepad - okc -1 @ mem, mebe sas -4 v lac, utah den < 204, mebe nyk -2.5 @ gs
Edit 12/28 5:55: here's yesterday's video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBjBayHs1HU
I am taking all 4, some of these may have started but I honestly don't know scores. Decided about 3pm to take all 4. Best lines on vegasinsider are OKC pickem, SAS -4, Utah/Den < 202.5, NYK -4.5. So. Lost a bit waiting on the Knicks 'cause of stephen curry, but they even more likely to cover cause of stephen curry (out). That utah/den under moved down, with good reason, and not enough to make me stay away. Still going to make that lock. So 400 on that, 200 others.
Monday, December 26, 2011
NBA Betting
Starting up NBA betting, just going to put it here as well to keep it written down. I would be highly cautious of taking my advice, I'm a lifelong laker fan but I barely know the top teams, let alone the league at large. Sort of similar to where I was coming into NFL betting, and I did manage to post a VERY minor profit through the first 4 weeks of the NFL before settling on my current structure and feeling ready to seriously test my handicapping. Again like football I'm going to be reformatting and counting separately the books after a while (maybe 3 weeks, depending on when I feel like I've learned a decent amount), win or lose.
Anyway. My picks for Christmas were (oh yea, 4k bankroll):
400 Bulls pickem (lucky ass number here, gogo using vegas odds, and I got very lucky as the bulls didn't look as good as I thought/lakers looked better)
200 LAC -4 (wow the clippers looked like shit, outside shots and no rebounds, but too much star power + they covered easily)
200 Celtics +4.5 (veterans did work against the new talent, wasn't as close as it looks by the numbers as celtics led much of the 4th, and we covered easily here too)
Reasoning here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJZbeaobRnQ
3-0 not bad start, and of course as I said above ALL SKILL ALL PLANNED I'M #1.
Picks for tonight (+800 current):
200 OKC -5 @ Min
200 Dallas -4.5 v Den
Rolling with the talent in both cases. In the OKC game, it is a back-2-back game for them, but they are youngish and should be alright with it. There's an advantage to having played a season opener already and being more comfortable than Min will be, too. Not that I know a ton about basketball, but I don't think much of Minnesota.
The Dallas game, same things can be said, although back-to-back I think a little tougher for them. Hoping they make steps towards adjusting to loss of Chandler. Mainly after the loss to the heat they'll really want to win this game, esp. with the lack of credit given to them by the media, and maybe vegas figures the public will back off them a little so this line is smaller I think when it should be larger because Dallas wants to win. It's still kind of large against a Denver team that's worked well as a unit. But no star power, and I will take the defending champs, even with the line.
I say much the same here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgOqtBXfhFQ
Just a quick NFL update 1-0-1 this week, sitting at like +840 I believe. Lock to play tonight.
Anyway. My picks for Christmas were (oh yea, 4k bankroll):
400 Bulls pickem (lucky ass number here, gogo using vegas odds, and I got very lucky as the bulls didn't look as good as I thought/lakers looked better)
200 LAC -4 (wow the clippers looked like shit, outside shots and no rebounds, but too much star power + they covered easily)
200 Celtics +4.5 (veterans did work against the new talent, wasn't as close as it looks by the numbers as celtics led much of the 4th, and we covered easily here too)
Reasoning here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJZbeaobRnQ
3-0 not bad start, and of course as I said above ALL SKILL ALL PLANNED I'M #1.
Picks for tonight (+800 current):
200 OKC -5 @ Min
200 Dallas -4.5 v Den
Rolling with the talent in both cases. In the OKC game, it is a back-2-back game for them, but they are youngish and should be alright with it. There's an advantage to having played a season opener already and being more comfortable than Min will be, too. Not that I know a ton about basketball, but I don't think much of Minnesota.
The Dallas game, same things can be said, although back-to-back I think a little tougher for them. Hoping they make steps towards adjusting to loss of Chandler. Mainly after the loss to the heat they'll really want to win this game, esp. with the lack of credit given to them by the media, and maybe vegas figures the public will back off them a little so this line is smaller I think when it should be larger because Dallas wants to win. It's still kind of large against a Denver team that's worked well as a unit. But no star power, and I will take the defending champs, even with the line.
I say much the same here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgOqtBXfhFQ
Just a quick NFL update 1-0-1 this week, sitting at like +840 I believe. Lock to play tonight.
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