Week 9

Aight, here's my books week 9. Week 8, worst week yet. Bleh. Felt the strongest about it, ironically.

I'll say this here and prolly at the start of every post, the only bets you should listen to my advice on at all (historically speaking) are the top bets (book 1), which I talk about  here: (youtube link). And I should also add, the judgment you ultimately follow should be your own. Take me as a sounding board, just putting some ideas out there. Anyway, despite my failure pretty much everywhere aside from top bets, I'll post all the bets I'm looking at, and the reasoning, on the odd chance it's useful to others or I become good enough to comfortably bet these categories I'm weaker in some time in the future.

All books based on 4k bankroll

Book 1: Best ATS +340 (down 260 wk8)
400 sf -3.5 @ was
200 pit -3 v bal
200 gb -5 @ sd
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia

Book 2: Diverse spread -1060 (-590)
200 sf -3.5 @ was
200 pit -3 v bal
200 gb -5 @ sd
200 kc -4ish v mia
100 atl -7 @ ind
100 nyj + buf > 44
100 chi + phi > 47

Book 3: Best Moneyline -940 (+300)
525 SF (to win 300)

Book 4: Diverse Moneyline +50 (-450)
350 SF (200)
245 GB (100)
330 ATL (100)

Book 5: Parlays -1170 (-600)
200 ATL + 7 and atl/ind > 44
200 buf + 1.5 and buf/nyj > 44
Edit: 3rd is 200 nyg + 9 and nyg/nep > 51

Might add a couple bets as we see on a couple injuries, of course. If both Kolb and Wells are out, I'll have to take STL to cover in Arizona, I think.

As my bets are - as always - very incestuous, I'll just cover a few and the reasoning there, together with the youtube video, should explain the similar bets in other books.

ATL - 7 - they're comin off the bye, and have been playing much better. Gotta think Michael Turner will run all over that weak indy run d. Indy can't be too happy to be 0-8, might be demoralized. I would almost say this is a top bet, but indy should be getting addai back to become less 1-dimensional, and atlanta's secondary has been suspect most of the season as well. I don't think Curtis painter is as bad as people make him out to be, too (though he is bad) - indy was putting up 17 points pretty consistently for a while, and I could readily see them getting 20 here against the weak secondary. But they shouldn't be able to hold atlanta under 27. Should not. But we'll see.

nyj + buf > 44 - not a whole lot of specific reasoning here. Buffalo puts up a decent amount of points, generally. That should continue, I don't really believe in the Jets' run defense to stop Fred Jackson. One might worry that with the jets lacking a strong run game, buffalo's strong secondary could pick off the jets at the wrong time and waste a lot of clock time. But they might just as easily get picks in good field position. Who knows, maybe you get a pick six. The jets are about due to start playing well - they manage to get to the playoffs fairly frequently, so they might do their share to put this one over.

chi + phi > 47 - This number seems rather low considering how many points philly tends to put up and give away. Chicago's been coming on strong lately on offense themselves, and I'm not sure how well that aging defense can keep up with philly's speed. I think there's a few breakaways on both sides here. Add in one teaspoon devin hester kick returns, stir, serve high scoring. Oh I should also note that philly was either running the hurryup or just quick in the huddle on monday, which should extend the clock here as well. I was skipping through between plays and had to keep backing up.

nyg + 9/NE + nyg > 51 - Giants play down and up to the level of their opponents, so I think they could keep this close, even in foxborough. Even though pats rarely lose back-to-back. Could see this being a close loss in a high scoring game for nyg. Concerned that bradshaw may not play, and jacobs has been shit, but I'm holding hope NE's defense keeps ny in this one. What I really like about this parlay is the correlation - the steelers may have held the pats under 20, but that's a rarity. So if nyg does beat the spread, its got to be in a high scoring game. I think if you take the giants side here, you gotta like the over. So even if the likelihood is 60/40 that NE covers, if the likelihood is 75% that when nyg covers, its >51, this is a good (30% chance) parlay. The numbers are prolly not so severe, but you get the point.