200 Djok -3 -118
EDIT (AFTER):
Books-
Game Spread: +642
Totals: -64 ---- no +136
Set Line: +174
EDIT again - checked my march last 1/2 math, forgot to enter ebden/querrey over win. Totals is at +136. Spread is right.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Monday, March 26, 2012
Update + Tennis 3/27
Books:
Game Spread: +650
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174
What started out a horrible tournament at 0-3 has turned around well as we won 5 straight. There have been a lot of revenge matches this tournament I've bet on, Tipsarevic over Nalbandian, Almagro over Verdasco, and one other I played I don't remember which (lost the first, won the last two). In all 3 cases, it seems like the books have expected the general public to bet for a repeat of last match, as the lines seem a little skewed toward the underdog who had upset previously. Something to look for in the future.
Of course, it's best to be wary because sometimes the "worse" player's style counters the higher ranked player.
***
A note on notation. if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games -115, it's a $230 bet to win 200. However, if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games +115, it's a $200 bet to win $230. It's just easier this way, and bets more on positive juice games than if I did aggravating math and set positive juice games at "to win 200."
Course I could take it a step further and make both positive and negative juice $200 bets to win x, that would optimize it so I'm putting even more on positive juice games respectively, but again - I'm lazy.
***
Bets for tomorrow will go here
Game Spread: +650
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174
What started out a horrible tournament at 0-3 has turned around well as we won 5 straight. There have been a lot of revenge matches this tournament I've bet on, Tipsarevic over Nalbandian, Almagro over Verdasco, and one other I played I don't remember which (lost the first, won the last two). In all 3 cases, it seems like the books have expected the general public to bet for a repeat of last match, as the lines seem a little skewed toward the underdog who had upset previously. Something to look for in the future.
Of course, it's best to be wary because sometimes the "worse" player's style counters the higher ranked player.
***
A note on notation. if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games -115, it's a $230 bet to win 200. However, if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games +115, it's a $200 bet to win $230. It's just easier this way, and bets more on positive juice games than if I did aggravating math and set positive juice games at "to win 200."
Course I could take it a step further and make both positive and negative juice $200 bets to win x, that would optimize it so I'm putting even more on positive juice games respectively, but again - I'm lazy.
***
Bets for tomorrow will go here
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Friday, March 23, 2012
Tennis 3/23
Unless further notice, going big tomorrow. Should probably cut some, but not sure which. Prolly Nishikori, seems to struggle a lil with big servers and Lacko very solid.
200 Melzer -3 -103
200 Nalbandian -1.5 +114
200 Nishikori -2.5 -110
200 Tsonga/Malisse <20.5 +118
200 Berdych/Mahut <19.5 -106
200 Melzer -3 -103
200 Nalbandian -1.5 +114
200 Nishikori -2.5 -110
200 Tsonga/Malisse <20.5 +118
200 Berdych/Mahut <19.5 -106
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Tennis 3/22
Bleh, turns out those were more than retirement rumors. Shoulda taken Gonzo.. or rather the over betting on Gonzo winning a set. Update on books:
Game Spread: +256
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174
Today taking 200 Ebden/Querrey over 22.5 -106. Ebden's had a very good year, and Querrey looked miserable in the doubles final at Indian Wells, and reportedly at his loss. Spraying balls everywhere with that goofy smile on. We think Ebden gets a set, and Dad thinks Querrey won't fuck up so badly he loses to Ebden in 2
Game Spread: +256
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174
Today taking 200 Ebden/Querrey over 22.5 -106. Ebden's had a very good year, and Querrey looked miserable in the doubles final at Indian Wells, and reportedly at his loss. Spraying balls everywhere with that goofy smile on. We think Ebden gets a set, and Dad thinks Querrey won't fuck up so badly he loses to Ebden in 2
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Tennis 3/21
Going on now, but I didn't look. Well, I did see that I missed the first just now, but had called it placed before. So the missed bet was 200 nalbandian darcis under 20.5 -108. The other is 200 mahut gonzalez over 22 -115.
Actually canceling the latter, all his wins were on clay. Almost makes me want to take mahut -2 instead, but lets just stay away.
Actually canceling the latter, all his wins were on clay. Almost makes me want to take mahut -2 instead, but lets just stay away.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Tennis 3/17
Book update -
Game Spread: +482
Will edit in picks for the semis, leaning towards rafa over fed and djok over isner, of course, but we'll see how many games we'd have to lay...
200 rafa -2 -113
Game Spread: +482
Will edit in picks for the semis, leaning towards rafa over fed and djok over isner, of course, but we'll see how many games we'd have to lay...
200 rafa -2 -113
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
2011-2012 NFL season best bets summary with notes
Before I begin, let me say the written balance reflects balance at the start of each week. For full juice statistics, you will have to do the math on the losses. If there's a "v" instead of an "@" I bet the home team.
Week 4: 0
UNKNOWN
Week 5: -160
400 SD -3.5 @ DEN WIN
200 NO -6 @ CAR LOSS
200 TAM +3 @ NO LOSS
Week 6: -200 (~1-2 ATS)
400 NYJ -7 v MIA WIN
200 NE -7 v DAL LOSS
200 PHI -1 @ WAS WIN
Week 7: +180 (~3-3 ATS)
400 DEN +3 @ MIA (no juice) WIN
200 PIT -3.5 @ ARI WIN
200 SD -2 @ NYJ LOSS
Week 8: +560 (~5-4 ATS)
400 buf -5 v was WIN
200 ne -2 @ pit LOSS
200 nyg -9.5 v mia LOSS
200 no -13 @ stl LOSS
Week 9: +300 (~6-7 ATS)
400 sf -3.5 @ was WIN
200 pit -3 v bal LOSS
200 gb -5 @ sd WIN
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia LOSS
Week 10: +460 (~8-9 ATS)
400 NE +1 @ nyj WIN
200 hou -3 @ tb WIN
200 atl/no > 50 LOSS
Week 11: +840 (~10-10 ATS)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia LOSS
200 ne -14.5 v kc WIN
200 dal -7.5 @ was LOSS
200 nyj -4.5 @ den LOSS
Week 12: +160 (~11-13 ATS)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520) WIN
200 Car -3 @ Ind WIN
200 Hou -3 @ Jax WIN
200 gb/det > 55.5 LOSS
Week 13: +740 (~14-14 ATS)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5 LOSS
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5 WIN
200 GB -5.5 LOSS
Week 14: +500 (~15-16 ATS)
400 pats -1 + jets -3 WIN
200 Saints -3 WIN
200 chicago/denver under some mid-30s number (check the youtube, too lazy) WIN
Week 15: +1300 (~18-16 ATS)
400 saints -1.5 @ min + ten -.5 @ ind LOSS
200 gb -6.5 @ kc + sea/chi <43 LOSS
200 cin pk @ stl + ne -1 @ den WIN
200 steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami. LOSS
Week 16: +660 (~19-19 ATS)
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock) WIN
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease) WIN
200 SF -2 PUSH
Week 17: +1260 (~21-19 ATS)
200 pats -3 v bills + 49ers -3.5 @ rams (130) WIN
200 jets +3 @ mia WIN
200 bal straight up @ cinci (125) WIN
End regular season: + 1860 (~24-19 ATS) Note: ~ shows approximate due to loss of data on week 4. I suspect I was 1-2, so possibly 25-21 total.
Wildcard weekend: +0 playoffs
400 Giants (no juice)
200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5
Divisional Round: +260
400 NO (-120) NOTE - I think this line was -3, but if it was SU, they lost that too.
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)
Championship Weekend: -120
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)
Superbowl: +280
200 Pats -2.5
End Playoffs: +60 (3-3 ATS)
SUMMARY
Overall numbers were probably 28-24 (assuming 1-2 week 4). 53.8% is not great by any stretch, 53% is a good approx. breakeven number (52.5 if all bets -110 but they weren't). The reason for the sizable $ win is my amazing lock percentage - 9/2 regular season (81%), 10/3 overall (77%). I bet these twice and hard so the results look like 38-27 (which would be a 58.5% success rate, a great but not unheard of number for a handicapper).
ONLY playing locks in the future seems appealing at first glance. 10/3 assuming -110 juice on locks would have net 2680 instead of 1940. On non-locks, I was 18-21 (46%). But of that 18-21, I was 3-9 weeks 5-10, and 15-12 weeks 11-17 (and since it's an odd number, breaking the halves into weeks 5-11 and 12-17 would show 4-11 and 14-10 respectively). If I'm correct that I got better as the season went on, non-locks deserve another chance - at least on paper.
P.S. I use first person pronouns for ease, but what credit is due is due also to my father, who was as much a part of this as I.
Some notes on math errors:
-You'll notice a $40 difference with this and most of the regular season (this is 40 lower) if you page through. I had failed to account for the 40 juice lost between week 5 and week 6.
-You'll noticed I forgot to drop 20 extra juice from the steeler tease being busted if you page through the playoffs. The numbers here are accurate.
-When I did the math originally I thought I ended the regular season +2000 even. The +1860 here seems right, but I can't figure the issue. Either way- +2000 would be great, yet +1860 still pretty great.
Week 4: 0
UNKNOWN
Week 5: -160
400 SD -3.5 @ DEN WIN
200 NO -6 @ CAR LOSS
200 TAM +3 @ NO LOSS
Week 6: -200 (~1-2 ATS)
400 NYJ -7 v MIA WIN
200 NE -7 v DAL LOSS
200 PHI -1 @ WAS WIN
Week 7: +180 (~3-3 ATS)
400 DEN +3 @ MIA (no juice) WIN
200 PIT -3.5 @ ARI WIN
200 SD -2 @ NYJ LOSS
Week 8: +560 (~5-4 ATS)
400 buf -5 v was WIN
200 ne -2 @ pit LOSS
200 nyg -9.5 v mia LOSS
200 no -13 @ stl LOSS
Week 9: +300 (~6-7 ATS)
400 sf -3.5 @ was WIN
200 pit -3 v bal LOSS
200 gb -5 @ sd WIN
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia LOSS
Week 10: +460 (~8-9 ATS)
400 NE +1 @ nyj WIN
200 hou -3 @ tb WIN
200 atl/no > 50 LOSS
Week 11: +840 (~10-10 ATS)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia LOSS
200 ne -14.5 v kc WIN
200 dal -7.5 @ was LOSS
200 nyj -4.5 @ den LOSS
Week 12: +160 (~11-13 ATS)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520) WIN
200 Car -3 @ Ind WIN
200 Hou -3 @ Jax WIN
200 gb/det > 55.5 LOSS
Week 13: +740 (~14-14 ATS)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5 LOSS
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5 WIN
200 GB -5.5 LOSS
Week 14: +500 (~15-16 ATS)
400 pats -1 + jets -3 WIN
200 Saints -3 WIN
200 chicago/denver under some mid-30s number (check the youtube, too lazy) WIN
Week 15: +1300 (~18-16 ATS)
400 saints -1.5 @ min + ten -.5 @ ind LOSS
200 gb -6.5 @ kc + sea/chi <43 LOSS
200 cin pk @ stl + ne -1 @ den WIN
200 steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami. LOSS
Week 16: +660 (~19-19 ATS)
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock) WIN
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease) WIN
200 SF -2 PUSH
Week 17: +1260 (~21-19 ATS)
200 pats -3 v bills + 49ers -3.5 @ rams (130) WIN
200 jets +3 @ mia WIN
200 bal straight up @ cinci (125) WIN
End regular season: + 1860 (~24-19 ATS) Note: ~ shows approximate due to loss of data on week 4. I suspect I was 1-2, so possibly 25-21 total.
Wildcard weekend: +0 playoffs
400 Giants (no juice)
200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5
Divisional Round: +260
400 NO (-120) NOTE - I think this line was -3, but if it was SU, they lost that too.
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)
Championship Weekend: -120
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)
Superbowl: +280
200 Pats -2.5
End Playoffs: +60 (3-3 ATS)
SUMMARY
Overall numbers were probably 28-24 (assuming 1-2 week 4). 53.8% is not great by any stretch, 53% is a good approx. breakeven number (52.5 if all bets -110 but they weren't). The reason for the sizable $ win is my amazing lock percentage - 9/2 regular season (81%), 10/3 overall (77%). I bet these twice and hard so the results look like 38-27 (which would be a 58.5% success rate, a great but not unheard of number for a handicapper).
ONLY playing locks in the future seems appealing at first glance. 10/3 assuming -110 juice on locks would have net 2680 instead of 1940. On non-locks, I was 18-21 (46%). But of that 18-21, I was 3-9 weeks 5-10, and 15-12 weeks 11-17 (and since it's an odd number, breaking the halves into weeks 5-11 and 12-17 would show 4-11 and 14-10 respectively). If I'm correct that I got better as the season went on, non-locks deserve another chance - at least on paper.
P.S. I use first person pronouns for ease, but what credit is due is due also to my father, who was as much a part of this as I.
Some notes on math errors:
-You'll notice a $40 difference with this and most of the regular season (this is 40 lower) if you page through. I had failed to account for the 40 juice lost between week 5 and week 6.
-You'll noticed I forgot to drop 20 extra juice from the steeler tease being busted if you page through the playoffs. The numbers here are accurate.
-When I did the math originally I thought I ended the regular season +2000 even. The +1860 here seems right, but I can't figure the issue. Either way- +2000 would be great, yet +1860 still pretty great.
Tennis 3 - 15?
I am ron burgandy? Dunno why there seems to be none tomorrow. Thursday taking isner -4 +107. Going to update books and edit this.
Tennis Books:
Game Spread: +82
Totals: +152
Set Line: +174
Money Line: -642
A few notes -
-Didn't have juice written down for several of the indian wells bets, assuming -110 which is rather unfavorable for betonline. Not going well this tournament, 3 and 3 I think but down 90 (games spread only bets so far) taking that stupid fish -4 at -131 juice. Nalb +2 +106 was very sexy. If I was a little more disciplined I'd be in the black, but still testing the waters with tennis betting.
-Money line bets suck in any sport, there's so much juice attached. I doubt I'll ever actually play money line in tennis, as you can see how inauspicious it's been on paper. Certainly am not looking at taking those bets as I look at lines right now, so may as well call that book done.
P.S. Probably going to do a football summary right about meow.
Tennis Books:
Game Spread: +82
Totals: +152
Set Line: +174
Money Line: -642
A few notes -
-Didn't have juice written down for several of the indian wells bets, assuming -110 which is rather unfavorable for betonline. Not going well this tournament, 3 and 3 I think but down 90 (games spread only bets so far) taking that stupid fish -4 at -131 juice. Nalb +2 +106 was very sexy. If I was a little more disciplined I'd be in the black, but still testing the waters with tennis betting.
-Money line bets suck in any sport, there's so much juice attached. I doubt I'll ever actually play money line in tennis, as you can see how inauspicious it's been on paper. Certainly am not looking at taking those bets as I look at lines right now, so may as well call that book done.
P.S. Probably going to do a football summary right about meow.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Saturday, March 10, 2012
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