Monday, March 26, 2012

Update + Tennis 3/27

Books:
Game Spread: +650
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174

What started out a horrible tournament at 0-3 has turned around well as we won 5 straight. There have been a lot of revenge matches this tournament I've bet on, Tipsarevic over Nalbandian, Almagro over Verdasco, and one other I played I don't remember which (lost the first, won the last two). In all 3 cases, it seems like the books have expected the general public to bet for a repeat of last match, as the lines seem a little skewed toward the underdog who had upset previously. Something to look for in the future.

Of course, it's best to be wary because sometimes the "worse" player's style counters the higher ranked player.

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A note on notation. if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games -115, it's a $230 bet to win 200. However, if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games +115, it's a $200 bet to win $230. It's just easier this way, and bets more on positive juice games than if I did aggravating math and set positive juice games at "to win 200."

Course I could take it a step further and make both positive and negative juice $200 bets to win x, that would optimize it so I'm putting even more on positive juice games respectively, but again - I'm lazy.

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Bets for tomorrow will go here

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