Before I begin, let me say the written balance reflects balance at the start of each week. For full juice statistics, you will have to do the math on the losses. If there's a "v" instead of an "@" I bet the home team.
Week 4: 0
UNKNOWN
Week 5: -160
400 SD -3.5 @ DEN WIN
200 NO -6 @ CAR LOSS
200 TAM +3 @ NO LOSS
Week 6: -200 (~1-2 ATS)
400 NYJ -7 v MIA WIN
200 NE -7 v DAL LOSS
200 PHI -1 @ WAS WIN
Week 7: +180 (~3-3 ATS)
400 DEN +3 @ MIA (no juice) WIN
200 PIT -3.5 @ ARI WIN
200 SD -2 @ NYJ LOSS
Week 8: +560 (~5-4 ATS)
400 buf -5 v was WIN
200 ne -2 @ pit LOSS
200 nyg -9.5 v mia LOSS
200 no -13 @ stl LOSS
Week 9: +300 (~6-7 ATS)
400 sf -3.5 @ was WIN
200 pit -3 v bal LOSS
200 gb -5 @ sd WIN
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia LOSS
Week 10: +460 (~8-9 ATS)
400 NE +1 @ nyj WIN
200 hou -3 @ tb WIN
200 atl/no > 50 LOSS
Week 11: +840 (~10-10 ATS)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia LOSS
200 ne -14.5 v kc WIN
200 dal -7.5 @ was LOSS
200 nyj -4.5 @ den LOSS
Week 12: +160 (~11-13 ATS)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520) WIN
200 Car -3 @ Ind WIN
200 Hou -3 @ Jax WIN
200 gb/det > 55.5 LOSS
Week 13: +740 (~14-14 ATS)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5 LOSS
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5 WIN
200 GB -5.5 LOSS
Week 14: +500 (~15-16 ATS)
400 pats -1 + jets -3 WIN
200 Saints -3 WIN
200 chicago/denver under some mid-30s number (check the youtube, too lazy) WIN
Week 15: +1300 (~18-16 ATS)
400 saints -1.5 @ min + ten -.5 @ ind LOSS
200 gb -6.5 @ kc + sea/chi <43 LOSS
200 cin pk @ stl + ne -1 @ den WIN
200 steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami. LOSS
Week 16: +660 (~19-19 ATS)
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock) WIN
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease) WIN
200 SF -2 PUSH
Week 17: +1260 (~21-19 ATS)
200 pats -3 v bills + 49ers -3.5 @ rams (130) WIN
200 jets +3 @ mia WIN
200 bal straight up @ cinci (125) WIN
End regular season: + 1860 (~24-19 ATS) Note: ~ shows approximate due to loss of data on week 4. I suspect I was 1-2, so possibly 25-21 total.
Wildcard weekend: +0 playoffs
400 Giants (no juice)
200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5
Divisional Round: +260
400 NO (-120) NOTE - I think this line was -3, but if it was SU, they lost that too.
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)
Championship Weekend: -120
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)
Superbowl: +280
200 Pats -2.5
End Playoffs: +60 (3-3 ATS)
SUMMARY
Overall numbers were probably 28-24 (assuming 1-2 week 4). 53.8% is not
great by any stretch, 53% is a good approx. breakeven number (52.5 if all bets -110 but they weren't). The reason for the sizable $ win is my amazing lock percentage - 9/2
regular season (81%), 10/3 overall (77%). I bet these twice and hard so the results look like 38-27 (which would be a 58.5% success rate, a great but not unheard of number for a handicapper).
ONLY playing locks in the future seems appealing at first glance. 10/3 assuming -110 juice on locks would have net 2680 instead of 1940. On non-locks, I was 18-21 (46%). But of that 18-21, I was 3-9 weeks 5-10, and 15-12 weeks 11-17 (and since it's an odd number, breaking the halves into weeks 5-11 and 12-17 would show 4-11 and 14-10 respectively). If I'm correct that I got better as the season went on, non-locks deserve another chance - at least on paper.
P.S. I use first person pronouns for ease, but what credit is due is due also to my father, who was as much a part of this as I.
Some notes on math errors:
-You'll notice a $40 difference with this and most of the regular season (this is 40 lower) if you page through. I had failed to account for the 40 juice lost between week 5 and week 6.
-You'll noticed I forgot to drop 20 extra juice from the steeler tease being busted if you page through the playoffs. The numbers here are accurate.
-When I did the math originally I thought I ended the regular
season +2000 even. The +1860 here seems right, but I can't
figure the issue. Either way- +2000 would be great, yet +1860 still pretty great.
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