Took Djok -5, he covered it exactly how we drew it up, in 5 sets with a 6-1 set. It works though. Taking djok/rafa over 39.5 in the finals that probably just started but I won't see till later so don't say anything, all ye followers.
Let me update the books.
Game Spread: +174
Totals: -48 (200 Djok/rafa over 39.5, forgot the juice we'll say -114 it may have been that and its suitably unfavorable)
Set Line: +174
Money Line: -642
Ay carumba, just googled the semi to make sure djok did win by 6 games, and found out the results of the final. At least I prolly cover that 39.5 from what it said, but that really sucks.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Tennis 1/26/27
Took nadal +2.5 sets -400 before we watched it (didn't update here, call me a liar). Dad wanted the game line +2.5 games, but habit from nfl I said stay away from 2 bets on one match. Oh well, this is like Who's Line Is It Anyway, the important thing is we watch tennis. When we feel comfy, going to reset, positive or negative, and get srs.
Taking djok -5 games here in the other semi. Dunno book totals.
Taking djok -5 games here in the other semi. Dunno book totals.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Tennis 1/26?
1-1 moves us to -48 (totals book). Bleh, keep firing away to acclimate.
Tempted to mess with this -2.5 sets line, nadal +2.5 sets -400 sounds like free money - he's gotta get one set you'd think. Kinda feels like a sucker bet though, there's 80 juice between the bets - guess there's always more on money lines things, prolly part of why I tend to dislike money line types. And I guess they kinda figure occasionally the dog has a bad day and does lose in straight sets... wonder how often Nadal's done it to Fed in serious tourneys, since he's I think 17-9 in their meetings. Course they are usually on different halves of the draw, this their first semi meeting.
I'll edit this if I decide to play that or Nadal +2.5 games +101. Seems like a close call, so tempted with the dog. The humidity was making nadal's balls hang up instead of kicking against berdych, and berdych was flattening out his shots. But I don't think fed will go for quite as much. Course he'll have fewer errors when he does.
Tempted to mess with this -2.5 sets line, nadal +2.5 sets -400 sounds like free money - he's gotta get one set you'd think. Kinda feels like a sucker bet though, there's 80 juice between the bets - guess there's always more on money lines things, prolly part of why I tend to dislike money line types. And I guess they kinda figure occasionally the dog has a bad day and does lose in straight sets... wonder how often Nadal's done it to Fed in serious tourneys, since he's I think 17-9 in their meetings. Course they are usually on different halves of the draw, this their first semi meeting.
I'll edit this if I decide to play that or Nadal +2.5 games +101. Seems like a close call, so tempted with the dog. The humidity was making nadal's balls hang up instead of kicking against berdych, and berdych was flattening out his shots. But I don't think fed will go for quite as much. Course he'll have fewer errors when he does.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Tennis 1/23
Tough day for GS/totals books, 3 losses -400, -232 repectively make those stand at -26 (GS), -32 (tot). We don't love any of the game spreads, but we do think djok ferrer will go 3 sets, and delpo/fed 4 or more. We haven't started to talk locks yet, but I like delpo/fed over better. Djok playing lights out and all, but ferrer is very good and we're kinda deep for 3-setters. If we weren't just getting a feel, IDK if I could take djok/ferrer under.
Totals (-32):
200 djok/ferrer < 31.5 -107
200 delpo/fed > 38.5 -108
Totals (-32):
200 djok/ferrer < 31.5 -107
200 delpo/fed > 38.5 -108
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Tennis 1/22
Update cause I'm bored. Books are at -642 ML +374 GS +200 totals. Lets see, wanted Llodra +8 cause if there's a weak spot in the top players I see it as murray. Didn't go too hot. Good news is I bet ON the other top players, who covered easily. Delpo beat his 6 games by like 5, roger his 7 by 4 or 5 or so (stopped checking at 5-1 in the 3rd). That 36.5 under was just gold, 24ish games played. Guess its toughish to have a 4-setter under that without hugely temperamental play, but since its possible I just dunno what the books were thinking. No way it was going 5, looked a lot like 3.
We'll see what the wise one says, but I lean to jock to cover 9.5 games, he just murdered a guy on the guy's birthday. Merciless. Hewitt with the home crowd could play hard every game though. Slight lean to Gasquet +4. I again think murray -9.5 against kukushkin kinda high, but I guess Kukushkin may not belong here.
Lines a lil tougher, murray/djok both getting tougher lines than fed/delpo were. 9.5 is kinda like the 14.5 of football. 6-3 6-3 6-3 won't do it.
So picks tsonga -6 +114, kukushkin +9.5 +116, nish/tsonga < 37.5 -116. All fav juice bets to win 200, all dog juice 200 a bet. Tempting to play djok, but we also found ourselves liking the over that tiny total 26.5, so we stay away. You know, I wonder how parlays in tennis work. Do they let you do large favorite with under at 2.6/1? Or the reverse, obv. They can't... tooooo much correlation. No, that's straight causation.
We'll see what the wise one says, but I lean to jock to cover 9.5 games, he just murdered a guy on the guy's birthday. Merciless. Hewitt with the home crowd could play hard every game though. Slight lean to Gasquet +4. I again think murray -9.5 against kukushkin kinda high, but I guess Kukushkin may not belong here.
Lines a lil tougher, murray/djok both getting tougher lines than fed/delpo were. 9.5 is kinda like the 14.5 of football. 6-3 6-3 6-3 won't do it.
So picks tsonga -6 +114, kukushkin +9.5 +116, nish/tsonga < 37.5 -116. All fav juice bets to win 200, all dog juice 200 a bet. Tempting to play djok, but we also found ourselves liking the over that tiny total 26.5, so we stay away. You know, I wonder how parlays in tennis work. Do they let you do large favorite with under at 2.6/1? Or the reverse, obv. They can't... tooooo much correlation. No, that's straight causation.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
NFL Championship Weekend
Playoff Book (-100)
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)
Giants/Niners being as close to call as it is, you let me get 10 points in a teaser against the weaker offense, going to do it all day. But a few reasons I think the giants at least even money to win here:
-Niners got gifted some against saints, as excellent at causing turnovers as they are.
-Niners get a lot of picks jumping routes. Eli likes to throw deep balls if he can force single coverage, that are actually rather difficult to pick and not something the niners have had to defend against much this year. They split with the cardinals, the other team that comes to mind that likes these passes.
-Giants pass rush plays a bigger role here - Smith has really struggled against good pass rushes.
There are plenty of great things to be said about both, but those last two points make me think its a good stylistic matchup. That said, the rain favors the 9ers.
Pats pick 'em
-I know bal's tougher competition than their sched this year, but what hasn't been talked about is how few elite passing teams baltimore's faced this year (and the chargers stomped em).
-The patriots defense has been consistently underrated and they're playing good now, though most don't believe it. They say pats played so well last week because it was the broncos. There's truth there, but damnit if that asshole bellicheck didn't light a fire. You could tell the difference was more than just Broncos.
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)
Giants/Niners being as close to call as it is, you let me get 10 points in a teaser against the weaker offense, going to do it all day. But a few reasons I think the giants at least even money to win here:
-Niners got gifted some against saints, as excellent at causing turnovers as they are.
-Niners get a lot of picks jumping routes. Eli likes to throw deep balls if he can force single coverage, that are actually rather difficult to pick and not something the niners have had to defend against much this year. They split with the cardinals, the other team that comes to mind that likes these passes.
-Giants pass rush plays a bigger role here - Smith has really struggled against good pass rushes.
There are plenty of great things to be said about both, but those last two points make me think its a good stylistic matchup. That said, the rain favors the 9ers.
Pats pick 'em
-I know bal's tougher competition than their sched this year, but what hasn't been talked about is how few elite passing teams baltimore's faced this year (and the chargers stomped em).
-The patriots defense has been consistently underrated and they're playing good now, though most don't believe it. They say pats played so well last week because it was the broncos. There's truth there, but damnit if that asshole bellicheck didn't light a fire. You could tell the difference was more than just Broncos.
Tennis 1/21
Trying to get a jump on this fast moving Auzzie open. 1-1 so far tonight, -22 = 174 GS book. For tomorrow:
200 delpo -6 -105 v kohlschreiber
200 fed -7 -140 v tomic
And we'll start a separate totals book w/ 200 delpo/kohl < 36.5 -111. Guess how we think that match will go.
200 delpo -6 -105 v kohlschreiber
200 fed -7 -140 v tomic
And we'll start a separate totals book w/ 200 delpo/kohl < 36.5 -111. Guess how we think that match will go.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Tennis 1/20
2-1 game spread, 0-2 money line. totals +196 GS -642 ML. As I see wawrinka and Almagro's rankings for the Australian, I wonder if he wasn't +265, if so money line is 165 better off, but still shitty. It doesn't matter, we're in fire-away-to-get-a-feel mode right now as we start.
I ran out the door to work just getting the game spreads down, so that's all I bet today. Some may be in progress, but scouts honor I took 'em.
GS Book: +196
200 Gasquet -1.5 +105
200 Benneteau +1.5 -116
200 Llodra +8 +104
Just as an aside, for tennis betting betonline's lines blow bovada (bodog)'s out of the water. Probably more a testament to how sucky bodog is, they were the same for football. But tennis it's so striking, look on the money line someone's +600 opp -800 at betonline, will be +540 -900 at bovada. That's just an ex, not an actual line, but I saw it EVERY game.
I ran out the door to work just getting the game spreads down, so that's all I bet today. Some may be in progress, but scouts honor I took 'em.
GS Book: +196
200 Gasquet -1.5 +105
200 Benneteau +1.5 -116
200 Llodra +8 +104
Just as an aside, for tennis betting betonline's lines blow bovada (bodog)'s out of the water. Probably more a testament to how sucky bodog is, they were the same for football. But tennis it's so striking, look on the money line someone's +600 opp -800 at betonline, will be +540 -900 at bovada. That's just an ex, not an actual line, but I saw it EVERY game.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Tennis 1/19
Ouch, not a very auspicious start. Today we got:
Book 1: Game spread (-250)
200 Kohlschreiber -5 +104
200 Isner -1.5 -101
200 Delpo -7.5 +120
Book 2: Money Line (-277)
265 Wawrinka
100 Dolgopolov (+120)
Book 1: Game spread (-250)
200 Kohlschreiber -5 +104
200 Isner -1.5 -101
200 Delpo -7.5 +120
Book 2: Money Line (-277)
265 Wawrinka
100 Dolgopolov (+120)
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Tennis Betting
Starting tennis betting.
Troicki straight up against Kukushkin -277
simon -2 games against benneteau -125
Edit: units for those bets which are in progress but I swear I haven't checked - we'll make 2 sep books, maybe 3 if we do set betting, for now all ML will be to win 100, 4k bankroll. May change it once I make with the maths. Other bets same as NFL, to win 400 locks to win 200 others. Feel confident about simon but didn't discuss lockworthiness, saying 200. Now lets go check...
Troicki straight up against Kukushkin -277
simon -2 games against benneteau -125
Edit: units for those bets which are in progress but I swear I haven't checked - we'll make 2 sep books, maybe 3 if we do set betting, for now all ML will be to win 100, 4k bankroll. May change it once I make with the maths. Other bets same as NFL, to win 400 locks to win 200 others. Feel confident about simon but didn't discuss lockworthiness, saying 200. Now lets go check...
Divisional Results
As per my comment on youtube, last week was:
400 NO (-120)
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)
-280 so -100 total playoffs to date. First week 400 giants -200 (normal juice) steelers saints tease (steelers leg busted)
400 NO (-120)
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)
-280 so -100 total playoffs to date. First week 400 giants -200 (normal juice) steelers saints tease (steelers leg busted)
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Divisional Weekend notepad
Last week was okay, atlanta's secondary was who we thought they were, giants in a big game were (mostly) who we thought they were. That pit-den game was a shame, but its like the man says: sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes tebow has a career day and there's questionable reffing. +180 on the week since the lock won.
Here's my notepad for this week-
Taken:
400 NO -3 (120)
Possibilities:
Sides-
Texans +8ish - line movement.. But its BAL in BAL, very tough. But so many points, these teams are mirrors right now.
NYG +8 - GB healthy. NY d playin awesome. What's weather, and what does that mean? Same q for BAL, NE games
NE -13.5 - Follow DEN injuries. Check Elway. If 2ndary injuries + Elway says pass, got to. Tempted still.
Totals-
NYG/GB > 52 - It seems like no one can do enough to keep GB down, but Giants D playing well.
Picks from eli to gb 2ndary could be good/bad but most likely bad for this total.
SF/NO > 47.5 - saints offense + saints defense. But you could say niners offense + niners defense = under. Seriously though, if Saints score early at all it should go over, and there's chance enough that its over even if they don't w how explosive their offense is and their defense's possibly struggling against SF. Could even backdoor cover over if niners blow 'em out, like the STL game.
will brian dawkins play? bruton? (other safety) NE healthy
delanie walker play? check NO injuries for over/under
gb healthy. NYG bradshaw?
bal healthy. hou lots of minor injs... check johnson.
Here's my notepad for this week-
Taken:
400 NO -3 (120)
Possibilities:
Sides-
Texans +8ish - line movement.. But its BAL in BAL, very tough. But so many points, these teams are mirrors right now.
NYG +8 - GB healthy. NY d playin awesome. What's weather, and what does that mean? Same q for BAL, NE games
NE -13.5 - Follow DEN injuries. Check Elway. If 2ndary injuries + Elway says pass, got to. Tempted still.
Totals-
NYG/GB > 52 - It seems like no one can do enough to keep GB down, but Giants D playing well.
Picks from eli to gb 2ndary could be good/bad but most likely bad for this total.
SF/NO > 47.5 - saints offense + saints defense. But you could say niners offense + niners defense = under. Seriously though, if Saints score early at all it should go over, and there's chance enough that its over even if they don't w how explosive their offense is and their defense's possibly struggling against SF. Could even backdoor cover over if niners blow 'em out, like the STL game.
will brian dawkins play? bruton? (other safety) NE healthy
delanie walker play? check NO injuries for over/under
gb healthy. NYG bradshaw?
bal healthy. hou lots of minor injs... check johnson.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Wildcard Weekend
EDIT:
Final picks - 400 Giants (no juice) 200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5. Again feel the best about one leg of a teaser (PIT), but the other has to be scary. Roth Full Prac 2 days. Saints -4 scary as teasers go but PIT free leg and Saints the best other one on the board IMO.
Got to figure this today. Been waiting on the damn injury report which isn't showing up, going to have to track it all over the net. But leans right now:
400 NYG -3 v ATL
200 NO -3.5 v DET + PIT -2 @ DEN (7pt tease, 30 juice)
200 HOU -3
I didn't want to play all the games but I feel pretty good about those picks actually. The only total I have a slight lean to is the under 34 in the DEN/PIT game.
Ironically I've also got a lean to CIN +10, and a possible hedge play of DEN +9 and DEN under 13 or w/e. If denver goes over they should stay w/in 9, so one of those should hit, and both could very well hit (PIT 13 - DEN 6 seems a plausible score here). But maybe Den gets down 10 or so, desperation forces Tebow to throw up prayers every down and he ends up giving up a pick 6 and getting a crazy touchdown (PIT 30 - DEN 16).
I'll edit this for final picks.
Final picks - 400 Giants (no juice) 200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5. Again feel the best about one leg of a teaser (PIT), but the other has to be scary. Roth Full Prac 2 days. Saints -4 scary as teasers go but PIT free leg and Saints the best other one on the board IMO.
Got to figure this today. Been waiting on the damn injury report which isn't showing up, going to have to track it all over the net. But leans right now:
400 NYG -3 v ATL
200 NO -3.5 v DET + PIT -2 @ DEN (7pt tease, 30 juice)
200 HOU -3
I didn't want to play all the games but I feel pretty good about those picks actually. The only total I have a slight lean to is the under 34 in the DEN/PIT game.
Ironically I've also got a lean to CIN +10, and a possible hedge play of DEN +9 and DEN under 13 or w/e. If denver goes over they should stay w/in 9, so one of those should hit, and both could very well hit (PIT 13 - DEN 6 seems a plausible score here). But maybe Den gets down 10 or so, desperation forces Tebow to throw up prayers every down and he ends up giving up a pick 6 and getting a crazy touchdown (PIT 30 - DEN 16).
I'll edit this for final picks.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
The end (ish)
So the NFL regular season comes to a close. I will probably reconsolidate and post my books from week 5-17 and check my math, but it looks like I end +2000 on 4k, 51%. I'm pretty happy with it for a first attempt, but I have some concerns. I'm happy my locks did so well, 9-2 from week 5-17 (2-2 old format). That bodes well for next year. I'm not happy to say that just playing locks at same prices I'd be somewhere around +3100, so I was probably something like 13-17 elsewhere (13 x 200 = 2600 - (17 x 220 = 3740) = -1140), meaning I hit very close to 50% overall -- 22 - 19 (53.6%). That would be a very minor win indeed had I not varied my bet sizes considering I'm more likely to lay 10 extra juice (or 20 on 7-pt teasers) than 5 or 10 less juice (although most frequently normal juice). And it's only so large of a win with varied bet sizes because of the large percentages bet, very risky play indeed (5% on non-locks, 10% on locks).
With that being said, breaking the season in halves tells a more optimistic story. As I was 6-0 through week 10 on locks and I believe at +850 it looks like I was something like 4-10 aside from locks (6-0 = +2400 - ((10 x 220 = 2200) - (4 x 200 = 800) = 1400)) = 1k). That's even more rough math, but if correct I was something like 9-7 on nonlocks from weeks 11-17. So I think I'm showing improvement overall, ATS wise, and even though I fell down on 2 of 5 locks in the 2nd half of the season I feel like one of those was avoidable. I ended better than I started so I feel like I'm learning. I feel good enough to play for money next year.
I'm also quitting NBA betting for now. Games each day is a drag, a real time-waster, and this shit is hard to call with the 60-70 game seasons and these players' egos.
I like the NFL much better. I may try to follow the NBA a little with the idea of putting a little money down on it some day, but I'm done keeping books, and I think if I were to break into another venue it would more likely be NCAA football or another professional sport with low-game seasons.
I will probably start a separate NFL book for playoffs, it seems like a different animal than regular season but I will probably give it a go.
EDIT - Looks like I missed $40 juice I think week 5 or 6 - the one with SD over denver - can't be assed to change each post since then. But +2000 not +2040. All the other math as far as profit/loss is right, yet to check numbers ATS etc.
With that being said, breaking the season in halves tells a more optimistic story. As I was 6-0 through week 10 on locks and I believe at +850 it looks like I was something like 4-10 aside from locks (6-0 = +2400 - ((10 x 220 = 2200) - (4 x 200 = 800) = 1400)) = 1k). That's even more rough math, but if correct I was something like 9-7 on nonlocks from weeks 11-17. So I think I'm showing improvement overall, ATS wise, and even though I fell down on 2 of 5 locks in the 2nd half of the season I feel like one of those was avoidable. I ended better than I started so I feel like I'm learning. I feel good enough to play for money next year.
I'm also quitting NBA betting for now. Games each day is a drag, a real time-waster, and this shit is hard to call with the 60-70 game seasons and these players' egos.
I like the NFL much better. I may try to follow the NBA a little with the idea of putting a little money down on it some day, but I'm done keeping books, and I think if I were to break into another venue it would more likely be NCAA football or another professional sport with low-game seasons.
I will probably start a separate NFL book for playoffs, it seems like a different animal than regular season but I will probably give it a go.
EDIT - Looks like I missed $40 juice I think week 5 or 6 - the one with SD over denver - can't be assed to change each post since then. But +2000 not +2040. All the other math as far as profit/loss is right, yet to check numbers ATS etc.
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