The end (ish)

So the NFL regular season comes to a close. I will probably reconsolidate and post my books from week 5-17 and check my math, but it looks like I end +2000 on 4k, 51%. I'm pretty happy with it for a first attempt, but I have some concerns. I'm happy my locks did so well, 9-2 from week 5-17 (2-2 old format). That bodes well for next year. I'm not happy to say that just playing locks at same prices I'd be somewhere around +3100, so I was probably something like 13-17 elsewhere (13 x 200 = 2600 - (17 x 220 = 3740) = -1140), meaning I hit very close to 50% overall -- 22 - 19 (53.6%). That would be a very minor win indeed had I not varied my bet sizes considering I'm more likely to lay 10 extra juice (or 20 on 7-pt teasers) than 5 or 10 less juice (although most frequently normal juice). And it's only so large of a win with varied bet sizes because of the large percentages bet, very risky play indeed (5% on non-locks, 10% on locks).

With that being said, breaking the season in halves tells a more optimistic story. As I was 6-0 through week 10 on locks and I believe at +850 it looks like I was something like 4-10 aside from locks (6-0 = +2400 - ((10 x 220 = 2200) - (4 x 200 = 800) = 1400)) = 1k). That's even more rough math, but if correct I was something like 9-7 on nonlocks from weeks 11-17. So I think I'm showing improvement overall, ATS wise, and even though I fell down on 2 of 5 locks in the 2nd half of the season I feel like one of those was avoidable. I ended better than I started so I feel like I'm learning. I feel good enough to play for money next year.

I'm also quitting NBA betting for now. Games each day is a drag, a real time-waster, and this shit is hard to call with the 60-70 game seasons and these players' egos.
I like the NFL much better. I may try to follow the NBA a little with the idea of putting a little money down on it some day, but I'm done keeping books, and I think if I were to break into another venue it would more likely be NCAA football or another professional sport with low-game seasons.


I will probably start a separate NFL book for playoffs, it seems like a different animal than regular season but I will probably give it a go.

EDIT - Looks like I missed $40 juice I think week 5 or 6 - the one with SD over denver - can't be assed to change each post since then. But +2000 not +2040. All the other math as far as profit/loss is right, yet to check numbers ATS etc.