200 pats -3 v bills + 49ers -3.5 @ rams (130)
200 jets +3 @ mia
200 bal straight up @ cinci (125)
no lock, just don't know. pats -3 is a lock, but its just a leg, 9ers w their situational football could win by 3. although its clemens and the rams, so... that may be worthy but week 17 so scary. bal straight up in cincy scares me the most, with boldan out, but i just like the veteran team here, better team too.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
NBA 12/31
-580, more like where I thought I'd be. Hopefully I'm learning something here. Hadn't put it up, but took Sac +1.5 and Sac/NYK under 201.5 because of NYK's injuries - now also staudemire in addition to butler and the other two. Keeping up on injuries has hurt me a lot lately as I didn't expect so many so early when I took the Knicks and Clips recently, so I'm trying to fade injured teams here. As I look at it though looks like the Knicks killing the kings, sans butler and staudemire is np tonight I guess. Ah, NBA.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Wk 17 Notepad
sides/totals
car/no > 54 how hard they playing?
lions -3 mccarthy wants all 3 qbs to play. think that matches that 3 tho.
dal/ny > 46 jones? want to see an even game. Too conserv? umenyiora
chi/min > 41 means nothing, min d.
jets +3 @ mia Bush out! line moving...
teases
pats -3 revenge, top seed, buffalo is effin crazy though, i swore off their games
49ers -3.5/4 check injuries
sea +10 picks from skellitor, skittles ran well against sf, 10 a lot
chiefs +10.5 cause broncos will go run after last week, so low-scorer. but orton, but chiefs.
ind +10.5/10 if no mjd
cowboys +10? but giants could run away w it, they more likely to win
car/no > 54 how hard they playing?
lions -3 mccarthy wants all 3 qbs to play. think that matches that 3 tho.
dal/ny > 46 jones? want to see an even game. Too conserv? umenyiora
chi/min > 41 means nothing, min d.
jets +3 @ mia Bush out! line moving...
teases
pats -3 revenge, top seed, buffalo is effin crazy though, i swore off their games
49ers -3.5/4 check injuries
sea +10 picks from skellitor, skittles ran well against sf, 10 a lot
chiefs +10.5 cause broncos will go run after last week, so low-scorer. but orton, but chiefs.
ind +10.5/10 if no mjd
cowboys +10? but giants could run away w it, they more likely to win
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
NBA betting, yesterday, today, tomorrow
Whew, NBA moves fast. Yesterday I picked a couple losers (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgOqtBXfhFQ), 200 on OKC -5 @ min (won by 4), 200 on dallas -4.5 v den (were killed). (Just firing away here because it helps me get a sense of the league in the early going, will remake books (win or lose) in a few weeks).
That brought the NBA total to +360, today I took (I sneaked these two picks past posterity, I will have no way to prove I pushed today) sac getting like 9ish it was a no cover anyway, and minnesota +5 which covered a close one, total at +340.
Leans for tomorrow, well here's my notepad - okc -1 @ mem, mebe sas -4 v lac, utah den < 204, mebe nyk -2.5 @ gs
Edit 12/28 5:55: here's yesterday's video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBjBayHs1HU
I am taking all 4, some of these may have started but I honestly don't know scores. Decided about 3pm to take all 4. Best lines on vegasinsider are OKC pickem, SAS -4, Utah/Den < 202.5, NYK -4.5. So. Lost a bit waiting on the Knicks 'cause of stephen curry, but they even more likely to cover cause of stephen curry (out). That utah/den under moved down, with good reason, and not enough to make me stay away. Still going to make that lock. So 400 on that, 200 others.
That brought the NBA total to +360, today I took (I sneaked these two picks past posterity, I will have no way to prove I pushed today) sac getting like 9ish it was a no cover anyway, and minnesota +5 which covered a close one, total at +340.
Leans for tomorrow, well here's my notepad - okc -1 @ mem, mebe sas -4 v lac, utah den < 204, mebe nyk -2.5 @ gs
Edit 12/28 5:55: here's yesterday's video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBjBayHs1HU
I am taking all 4, some of these may have started but I honestly don't know scores. Decided about 3pm to take all 4. Best lines on vegasinsider are OKC pickem, SAS -4, Utah/Den < 202.5, NYK -4.5. So. Lost a bit waiting on the Knicks 'cause of stephen curry, but they even more likely to cover cause of stephen curry (out). That utah/den under moved down, with good reason, and not enough to make me stay away. Still going to make that lock. So 400 on that, 200 others.
Monday, December 26, 2011
NBA Betting
Starting up NBA betting, just going to put it here as well to keep it written down. I would be highly cautious of taking my advice, I'm a lifelong laker fan but I barely know the top teams, let alone the league at large. Sort of similar to where I was coming into NFL betting, and I did manage to post a VERY minor profit through the first 4 weeks of the NFL before settling on my current structure and feeling ready to seriously test my handicapping. Again like football I'm going to be reformatting and counting separately the books after a while (maybe 3 weeks, depending on when I feel like I've learned a decent amount), win or lose.
Anyway. My picks for Christmas were (oh yea, 4k bankroll):
400 Bulls pickem (lucky ass number here, gogo using vegas odds, and I got very lucky as the bulls didn't look as good as I thought/lakers looked better)
200 LAC -4 (wow the clippers looked like shit, outside shots and no rebounds, but too much star power + they covered easily)
200 Celtics +4.5 (veterans did work against the new talent, wasn't as close as it looks by the numbers as celtics led much of the 4th, and we covered easily here too)
Reasoning here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJZbeaobRnQ
3-0 not bad start, and of course as I said above ALL SKILL ALL PLANNED I'M #1.
Picks for tonight (+800 current):
200 OKC -5 @ Min
200 Dallas -4.5 v Den
Rolling with the talent in both cases. In the OKC game, it is a back-2-back game for them, but they are youngish and should be alright with it. There's an advantage to having played a season opener already and being more comfortable than Min will be, too. Not that I know a ton about basketball, but I don't think much of Minnesota.
The Dallas game, same things can be said, although back-to-back I think a little tougher for them. Hoping they make steps towards adjusting to loss of Chandler. Mainly after the loss to the heat they'll really want to win this game, esp. with the lack of credit given to them by the media, and maybe vegas figures the public will back off them a little so this line is smaller I think when it should be larger because Dallas wants to win. It's still kind of large against a Denver team that's worked well as a unit. But no star power, and I will take the defending champs, even with the line.
I say much the same here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgOqtBXfhFQ
Just a quick NFL update 1-0-1 this week, sitting at like +840 I believe. Lock to play tonight.
Anyway. My picks for Christmas were (oh yea, 4k bankroll):
400 Bulls pickem (lucky ass number here, gogo using vegas odds, and I got very lucky as the bulls didn't look as good as I thought/lakers looked better)
200 LAC -4 (wow the clippers looked like shit, outside shots and no rebounds, but too much star power + they covered easily)
200 Celtics +4.5 (veterans did work against the new talent, wasn't as close as it looks by the numbers as celtics led much of the 4th, and we covered easily here too)
Reasoning here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJZbeaobRnQ
3-0 not bad start, and of course as I said above ALL SKILL ALL PLANNED I'M #1.
Picks for tonight (+800 current):
200 OKC -5 @ Min
200 Dallas -4.5 v Den
Rolling with the talent in both cases. In the OKC game, it is a back-2-back game for them, but they are youngish and should be alright with it. There's an advantage to having played a season opener already and being more comfortable than Min will be, too. Not that I know a ton about basketball, but I don't think much of Minnesota.
The Dallas game, same things can be said, although back-to-back I think a little tougher for them. Hoping they make steps towards adjusting to loss of Chandler. Mainly after the loss to the heat they'll really want to win this game, esp. with the lack of credit given to them by the media, and maybe vegas figures the public will back off them a little so this line is smaller I think when it should be larger because Dallas wants to win. It's still kind of large against a Denver team that's worked well as a unit. But no star power, and I will take the defending champs, even with the line.
I say much the same here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgOqtBXfhFQ
Just a quick NFL update 1-0-1 this week, sitting at like +840 I believe. Lock to play tonight.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Week 16 ATS
Well, that which I feared came to pass, Roth's injury was too much. But it also took bad playcalling (few blitzes) and some shoddy reffing to make it happen. Feel a little bad that I didn't see a mobility injury affecting a mobility qb as bad as it did, but even with that I think that was a tough one to get away from, steelers getting 10.
This week I like:
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock)
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease)
200 SF -2
Read on for explanation, or watch the video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR6UKB204W0
Pretty happy with the teams I'm putting money on - no more betting on Tennessee in a lock, at least 3 of the 4 of my lost locks have been betting on average teams (generally in a fade of their opponent), so even though Atl is solid, I'll get money down on new orleans and sleep better at night. I'm sort of fading that atlanta secondary here; and not convinced by atlanta's recent performances, while I think NO is playing better they were @ first meeting. I also don't think first meeting is predictive because of how huge home field is for both of these two teams this year. What convinced me to make this a lock and not just another pick was that Peyton is taking the right philosophy for a cover here, saying these games matter more (whereas some coaches, while they won't admit they're giving up/resting, can show it if you read between the lines) and calling this a big game. He'll take it seriously, and the saints will play hard to get the first round bye.
NE also have been enormous ATS this year, but the giants are pretty shaky. That leg of the tease alone is probably scarier than any of the other plays just because the giants can flop hard, despite talent, and their defense can make anyone look good. But they have the better offense, and their losses lately make me think they are undervalued here (last six games they've played NE, NO, GB, SF, DAL, WAS, but people just see they've lost 4 of last 5). Also turnovers tend to bounce generally (bad week good week bad week) so Eli may hold on, and the trash talk in NY makes this a big game (and the giants tend to play to level of their opp) and may motivate bradshaw to carry or coughlin to stop betting on jacobs. The jets are looking shakier defensively, and sanchez has been under 200 yds last 4 I heard. But enough about that. I have to take this tease because I have a great deal of trouble seeing the dolphins beating new england in new england. NE still has the top seed to play for and the dolphins, for all they've looked better, have done it through soft scheduling and are stepping up in class this week, as the broncos did last week. The pats d is scary here, but at least they're better against the run and have the potential to get picks from moore. Nice to see Fasano is out, too.
SF is SF, you've heard about their d by now, and they, like NO, are playing for the bye this week. I'm happy to have my money on them. Seahawks have looked okay lately, but that's been playing the rams twice, the bears as they are now, the redskins (actually losing at home to the skins, though the skins been playing a little better), and I forget what other underwhelming team. So they're overvalued here. Lynch had those great runs, but nada against a good run d (chitown much better than stl/was/whoever else it was I think) and so that should continue this week. That win last week looks better than it is too cause of chitown's 5 turnovers, without that it woulda been closer against an injured chicago. The zeitgeist is the hawks rock at home but they're actually only 4-3 I believe. Now they have a solid d too, but they don't have the pass rush that tripped up Smith in the Bal and Ari games (and should have in the Pitt game but for lousy playcalling - it did when they called it) - they're 22nd in sacks with under 30, so I think san francisco's offense will be successful enough here.
This week I like:
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock)
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease)
200 SF -2
Read on for explanation, or watch the video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR6UKB204W0
Pretty happy with the teams I'm putting money on - no more betting on Tennessee in a lock, at least 3 of the 4 of my lost locks have been betting on average teams (generally in a fade of their opponent), so even though Atl is solid, I'll get money down on new orleans and sleep better at night. I'm sort of fading that atlanta secondary here; and not convinced by atlanta's recent performances, while I think NO is playing better they were @ first meeting. I also don't think first meeting is predictive because of how huge home field is for both of these two teams this year. What convinced me to make this a lock and not just another pick was that Peyton is taking the right philosophy for a cover here, saying these games matter more (whereas some coaches, while they won't admit they're giving up/resting, can show it if you read between the lines) and calling this a big game. He'll take it seriously, and the saints will play hard to get the first round bye.
NE also have been enormous ATS this year, but the giants are pretty shaky. That leg of the tease alone is probably scarier than any of the other plays just because the giants can flop hard, despite talent, and their defense can make anyone look good. But they have the better offense, and their losses lately make me think they are undervalued here (last six games they've played NE, NO, GB, SF, DAL, WAS, but people just see they've lost 4 of last 5). Also turnovers tend to bounce generally (bad week good week bad week) so Eli may hold on, and the trash talk in NY makes this a big game (and the giants tend to play to level of their opp) and may motivate bradshaw to carry or coughlin to stop betting on jacobs. The jets are looking shakier defensively, and sanchez has been under 200 yds last 4 I heard. But enough about that. I have to take this tease because I have a great deal of trouble seeing the dolphins beating new england in new england. NE still has the top seed to play for and the dolphins, for all they've looked better, have done it through soft scheduling and are stepping up in class this week, as the broncos did last week. The pats d is scary here, but at least they're better against the run and have the potential to get picks from moore. Nice to see Fasano is out, too.
SF is SF, you've heard about their d by now, and they, like NO, are playing for the bye this week. I'm happy to have my money on them. Seahawks have looked okay lately, but that's been playing the rams twice, the bears as they are now, the redskins (actually losing at home to the skins, though the skins been playing a little better), and I forget what other underwhelming team. So they're overvalued here. Lynch had those great runs, but nada against a good run d (chitown much better than stl/was/whoever else it was I think) and so that should continue this week. That win last week looks better than it is too cause of chitown's 5 turnovers, without that it woulda been closer against an injured chicago. The zeitgeist is the hawks rock at home but they're actually only 4-3 I believe. Now they have a solid d too, but they don't have the pass rush that tripped up Smith in the Bal and Ari games (and should have in the Pitt game but for lousy playcalling - it did when they called it) - they're 22nd in sacks with under 30, so I think san francisco's offense will be successful enough here.
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday game
Well, those unconventional teases didn't belong after all. After going what 5-1-1 or something on teases, I went a little teaser crazy. One lesson from last week's 1-2 loss (with a lock loss ;/) is no teases in 7 and under pt. spreads generally. Second, I'm talking myself out of what I really see as happening - my dad and I were trying to decide between the pats + the titans for the second leg of the lock, and we both kept saying we felt really strong about the pats - but second-guessing ourselves due to tebowmania hype. Think the overanalysis has to go.
Anyway, though last week was the wrong spot for teasers, there is a spot I think they belong coming up. I'm teasing the steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami. These are the two places I feel the best teasing - up off the 3 in what everyone sees as a close game, and onto or just under the 3 in a large spread where the question is just how much the game will be won by.
What stops me from making this my lock for week 16 is the status of Roethlisberger - whether he'll play/be 100%. If he plays and isn't seriously hampered, it's hard to see SF's offense putting together enough against pittsburgh's defense to blow them out. One thing besides the obvious things you can say about these two teams is SF has been struggling with blitz schemes, it seems, in the Arizona and Baltimore losses. The (defensive?) coach @ arizona learned those schemes in pittsburgh, and so they'll see the same thing they struggled against last week. Maybe they'll adjust, but my father said he thinks you either see the blitz coming or you don't, and I think there's some truth to that. They faced another blitz-heavy defense in BAL and hadn't made changes by the ARI game.
Anyway, though last week was the wrong spot for teasers, there is a spot I think they belong coming up. I'm teasing the steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami. These are the two places I feel the best teasing - up off the 3 in what everyone sees as a close game, and onto or just under the 3 in a large spread where the question is just how much the game will be won by.
What stops me from making this my lock for week 16 is the status of Roethlisberger - whether he'll play/be 100%. If he plays and isn't seriously hampered, it's hard to see SF's offense putting together enough against pittsburgh's defense to blow them out. One thing besides the obvious things you can say about these two teams is SF has been struggling with blitz schemes, it seems, in the Arizona and Baltimore losses. The (defensive?) coach @ arizona learned those schemes in pittsburgh, and so they'll see the same thing they struggled against last week. Maybe they'll adjust, but my father said he thinks you either see the blitz coming or you don't, and I think there's some truth to that. They faced another blitz-heavy defense in BAL and hadn't made changes by the ARI game.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Week 15 ATS
Tease week as the lines get stronger. Here the bets are:
Book 1: Best bets (+1340 on 4k bankroll, since week 5ish)
400 saints -1.5 @ min + ten -.5 @ ind
200 gb -6.5 @ kc + sea/chi <43
200 cin pk @ stl + ne -1 @ den
Book 2*: "Real" (+600 on 4k bankroll, since wk 11. Duplicates book 1, may contain extra parlays/moneylines)
No additional bets.
Lots of away favorites is scary, but I think they merit it. Scary that many of these teases are unconventional too. But we shall see. Link to reasoning - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7PgyhCNli8
NOTE TO SELF $20 DISCREPANCY ----
Just tried to update book totals, I seem to have lost $20 somewhere. Book 6/2whatever came in at week 11, after the thursday game - book 1 was @ 660. Only non-bk1 loss was jacksonville parlay wk12ish 100 (juice counted). 600 + 100 + 660 = 1360. Bk1 is $20 higher or Bk1 bk6 $20 lower, but fuck it... it's $20. If at some point in the future this matters, look between weeks 11-14.
Book 1: Best bets (+1340 on 4k bankroll, since week 5ish)
400 saints -1.5 @ min + ten -.5 @ ind
200 gb -6.5 @ kc + sea/chi <43
200 cin pk @ stl + ne -1 @ den
Book 2*: "Real" (+600 on 4k bankroll, since wk 11. Duplicates book 1, may contain extra parlays/moneylines)
No additional bets.
Lots of away favorites is scary, but I think they merit it. Scary that many of these teases are unconventional too. But we shall see. Link to reasoning - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7PgyhCNli8
NOTE TO SELF $20 DISCREPANCY ----
Just tried to update book totals, I seem to have lost $20 somewhere. Book 6/2whatever came in at week 11, after the thursday game - book 1 was @ 660. Only non-bk1 loss was jacksonville parlay wk12ish 100 (juice counted). 600 + 100 + 660 = 1360. Bk1 is $20 higher or Bk1 bk6 $20 lower, but fuck it... it's $20. If at some point in the future this matters, look between weeks 11-14.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Last week, thoughts for this week
Sorry I didn't post bets here last week if anyone was looking, but they were on youtube here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKTh9oxAyAU&list=UUd3xV_gTDiHiJEYHVRbzsRQ
And they were: Book 1 (best bets) - Saints -3, chicago/denver under some mid-30s number, and my lock was a tease pats -1/.5 + jets -3. Book 6 (real plays i.e. what I'd actually play) - always duplicates book 1, + a parlay den -3 (extra juice) + den/chi under.
So great week last week, 3-0-1. I talk about it and give early thoughts for week 15 here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocP-C15fvLU
Here's the notepad I'm working with right now -
teases
nyg hosting washington pk INJURIES
saints @ min pk AP?
ten @ indy pk Hasselback?
pit +10 @ sf rothlsberger
dallas tease pk
if drop atlanta -3 tease in atlanta
ne -6 interviews
bal -2.5 @ sd deep ball?
bal + sd > 44.5
buf -1 dad
jets eagles > 44
"He's great for the NFL, the kind of young man he is and the values he represents," Patriots owner Robert Kraft said. "I think it's terrific. We just want to bring him down to earth this weekend.
"I hope we can sort of rain on the parade a little bit."
Not gonna explain it too much, most of it explained in the video. Hoping to do ultimate decisions on this week either tonight or tomorrow, and I'll post here when I have 'em.
And they were: Book 1 (best bets) - Saints -3, chicago/denver under some mid-30s number, and my lock was a tease pats -1/.5 + jets -3. Book 6 (real plays i.e. what I'd actually play) - always duplicates book 1, + a parlay den -3 (extra juice) + den/chi under.
So great week last week, 3-0-1. I talk about it and give early thoughts for week 15 here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocP-C15fvLU
Here's the notepad I'm working with right now -
teases
nyg hosting washington pk INJURIES
saints @ min pk AP?
ten @ indy pk Hasselback?
pit +10 @ sf rothlsberger
dallas tease pk
if drop atlanta -3 tease in atlanta
ne -6 interviews
bal -2.5 @ sd deep ball?
bal + sd > 44.5
buf -1 dad
jets eagles > 44
"He's great for the NFL, the kind of young man he is and the values he represents," Patriots owner Robert Kraft said. "I think it's terrific. We just want to bring him down to earth this weekend.
"I hope we can sort of rain on the parade a little bit."
Not gonna explain it too much, most of it explained in the video. Hoping to do ultimate decisions on this week either tonight or tomorrow, and I'll post here when I have 'em.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Week 13 books
So its just gonna be book 1/book 6 which will most likely be mirror images - although I may play some parlays or moneyline plays that didn't traditionally belong in book 1. Bets I feel best about did the best, what a shocker. Giving up on diverse spread, wal-mart style value-handicapping works for some, but I prefer to craft a few bets and try to really avoid losing rather than say I feel 55% about this side in every game. Best money line was an intriguing idea, but too risky I think even if I avoided the mistakes I made (ravens was avoidable, buffalo against cincy early I'm not certain). And money lines get less valuable later in the year, it seems. Diverse money line, though it ends positive, as I said it's tough to find good money lines later in the year, and really tough to get them such that 2/3 or 3/4 is a wash on almost sure things. I think that book was like teasers before I discovered teasers - and teasers seem to be better value. Though I don't feel like doing the math, I recall doing some that suggested that.
I made a big mistake in discussing very briefly with my father lines I felt would move yesterday (due to AP's injury, mainly, also both of us had trouble connecting this week), and locking myself out of both: 1) a better lock (since I know NE will cover 13) and 2) a more synergistic play (den +8.5 + den/min < 44.5 as a tease, both stand/fall together b/c of broncos style). So I'll post actual books first, and then what I wish I had gone with. No actual lock this week.
Books based off 4k bankroll (So 2.5/5/10% bet sizes at 100/200/400)
Book 1: Best Bets (+780)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5
200 GB -5.5
Book 6: Actual Bets (+40) - always contains all book 1 bets
No additional bets
A note - money discrepency between 1/6 not due to failed additional bets ~ yet, only one $100 loss additional so far ~ it's just a recent addition and came into existence in time to lose 700 that horrible week 11.
What I wish I'd done -
400 NE -13 + SF -6.5
200 DEN + 8.5 + DEN/MIN <44.5 (though I think unteased versions of both these bets also good, and very likely mathematically and logically better) -- Or maybe just the denver side, unteased. IDK.
200 GB -5.5
For reasoning, see the video: (Link to come)
I made a big mistake in discussing very briefly with my father lines I felt would move yesterday (due to AP's injury, mainly, also both of us had trouble connecting this week), and locking myself out of both: 1) a better lock (since I know NE will cover 13) and 2) a more synergistic play (den +8.5 + den/min < 44.5 as a tease, both stand/fall together b/c of broncos style). So I'll post actual books first, and then what I wish I had gone with. No actual lock this week.
Books based off 4k bankroll (So 2.5/5/10% bet sizes at 100/200/400)
Book 1: Best Bets (+780)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5
200 GB -5.5
Book 6: Actual Bets (+40) - always contains all book 1 bets
No additional bets
A note - money discrepency between 1/6 not due to failed additional bets ~ yet, only one $100 loss additional so far ~ it's just a recent addition and came into existence in time to lose 700 that horrible week 11.
What I wish I'd done -
400 NE -13 + SF -6.5
200 DEN + 8.5 + DEN/MIN <44.5 (though I think unteased versions of both these bets also good, and very likely mathematically and logically better) -- Or maybe just the denver side, unteased. IDK.
200 GB -5.5
For reasoning, see the video: (Link to come)
Friday, December 2, 2011
Last notepad
ne - 13 + den/min < 44.5, 1 unit for now. feel phenomenal about it, only thing better would be gb -6.5 if no bradshaw. waiting on oakland line movement, still like den +2 better than oak +3 but dad lacking testicular fortitude to trust den.
so can see several forms bets'll take this week, maybe 400 tease, 200 oak, 200 den, if bradshaw. maybe gb still makes it on. if no bradshaw, 400 gb, 200 tease, 200 oak/den.
For anyone wondering, minnesota hit really hard with injuries, ponder had been hooking up with mike jenkins, he and several other players put (prematurely, in a give-up move, imo) on IR last week, and now that AP has been ruled out, the side and the under both look great. I'm on the under, 'cause it's really hard to see min putting up many in this situation against this denver d.
Looks like von miller will play, it's not for sure, so I don't blame you for waiting, but I'm shocked the total and sides haven't moved yet with AP being ruled out today.
And I mean the new england bet ... it's a home game, a night game, bitter rival whose now near the very bottom, so they should want to bring the pain (not that it would be out of character for them to bring the pain otherwise).
I tend to think painter better than orlovsky, as bad as both choices are, their defensive coordinator was fired and moves like those don't help short-term, I believe. I do think addai's return helps them, and was considering them at +28, but ultimately think NE -13 is the better bet, esp. w qb change.
so can see several forms bets'll take this week, maybe 400 tease, 200 oak, 200 den, if bradshaw. maybe gb still makes it on. if no bradshaw, 400 gb, 200 tease, 200 oak/den.
For anyone wondering, minnesota hit really hard with injuries, ponder had been hooking up with mike jenkins, he and several other players put (prematurely, in a give-up move, imo) on IR last week, and now that AP has been ruled out, the side and the under both look great. I'm on the under, 'cause it's really hard to see min putting up many in this situation against this denver d.
Looks like von miller will play, it's not for sure, so I don't blame you for waiting, but I'm shocked the total and sides haven't moved yet with AP being ruled out today.
And I mean the new england bet ... it's a home game, a night game, bitter rival whose now near the very bottom, so they should want to bring the pain (not that it would be out of character for them to bring the pain otherwise).
I tend to think painter better than orlovsky, as bad as both choices are, their defensive coordinator was fired and moves like those don't help short-term, I believe. I do think addai's return helps them, and was considering them at +28, but ultimately think NE -13 is the better bet, esp. w qb change.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Public doing well this year, teasers, and updated notepad
See video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Fq9-rBQxXE
Notepad (in an order that makes sense to me but something like descending order of preference)
gb - 7 (if no bradshaw)
denver +1/parlay/under37.5 (all if no ap)
oak -3 (if line move 4+)
NE - 13 tease (really like this)
cin +14 tease
san fran - 6.5 against stl @ home tease
over in cinci pitt (tease?)
atl/hou <39
atlanta -2.5 @ houston - frustratingly hard to decide if I really like it all that much, so will prolly stay away due to other bets.
sd -3 @ jax monday - very unlikely, but needs moar research.
frazier says by friday, eval.
Coughlin - if bradshaw no practice friday, out
league pass ratio - 58.5%. (some time in october - find any other number?)
atl opps - 64%.
adjustment of 11.2 yards/game (based on assump of 55 plays which tracks well with 3.7 yards a carry 41.5% run plays equaling very near their 85ish yards/game, and then the extra 3.07 or so plays x 3.7 yards, whatever the fuck it was) = 4th.
by the y/carry 5th (why the fuck did I not just look at this number?)
P.S. Letting my brain wander while doing dishes, I had Rise Against's Prayer of the Refugee stuck in my head as I tried to think about the DET/NO game, I guess because of Suh's suspension I kept hearing the line "In the morning will come Suh" instead of "soon," and evolved a little parody about the rules changes for hitting quarterbacks this year. It might be amusing, although probably not so much if I were to put it on youtube with me singing it, here it is:
Soft Players with New Penalties (Prayer of the Refugee parody)
Ward yourself from my ire, Sam
Sunday morning will come Suh
I'll tell you stories of a better time,
In a place that we once slew
Before they cracked our sacks
We left all them beneath us in the turf (stay dust?)
We had a place that we could call home (show superdome/stadium)
And the QBs we could touch
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help now,
Let me put him down, down down!
Down!
We are the angry and the deadbeat,
We're hungry for your soul
They were the ones we kept quiet,
When the play-fake wasn't sold
You'd be sweating while you got no balm,
Gotcha, safety in your zone.
They'd be pulling, or we'd nail you
-Take back everything you've thrown.
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help now,
Let me put him down, down down!
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help now,
Let me put him down, down down!
So let us hit thighs ref,
The game must be played.
Blown coverage, good passes
Gets yards either way
Keep quiet, no wrong here
We'll swing through the fray
To the 'backs that we toss
And the 'backs who escape!
Go!
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help, now
Let me put him down, down, down!
Don't hold him up, ref
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help, now
Let me put him down, down, down!
Don't hold him up...
(He don't need your help, he'll stand his ground)
Don't hold him up...
(He don't need your help)
No! No! No!
Don't hold him up!
(He don't need your help, let us put him down)
Don't hold me up!
(He don't need your help, he'll stand his ground)
Let us put him down, down, down down!
Notepad (in an order that makes sense to me but something like descending order of preference)
gb - 7 (if no bradshaw)
denver +1/parlay/under37.5 (all if no ap)
oak -3 (if line move 4+)
NE - 13 tease (really like this)
cin +14 tease
san fran - 6.5 against stl @ home tease
over in cinci pitt (tease?)
atl/hou <39
atlanta -2.5 @ houston - frustratingly hard to decide if I really like it all that much, so will prolly stay away due to other bets.
sd -3 @ jax monday - very unlikely, but needs moar research.
frazier says by friday, eval.
Coughlin - if bradshaw no practice friday, out
league pass ratio - 58.5%. (some time in october - find any other number?)
atl opps - 64%.
adjustment of 11.2 yards/game (based on assump of 55 plays which tracks well with 3.7 yards a carry 41.5% run plays equaling very near their 85ish yards/game, and then the extra 3.07 or so plays x 3.7 yards, whatever the fuck it was) = 4th.
by the y/carry 5th (why the fuck did I not just look at this number?)
P.S. Letting my brain wander while doing dishes, I had Rise Against's Prayer of the Refugee stuck in my head as I tried to think about the DET/NO game, I guess because of Suh's suspension I kept hearing the line "In the morning will come Suh" instead of "soon," and evolved a little parody about the rules changes for hitting quarterbacks this year. It might be amusing, although probably not so much if I were to put it on youtube with me singing it, here it is:
Soft Players with New Penalties (Prayer of the Refugee parody)
Ward yourself from my ire, Sam
Sunday morning will come Suh
I'll tell you stories of a better time,
In a place that we once slew
Before they cracked our sacks
We left all them beneath us in the turf (stay dust?)
We had a place that we could call home (show superdome/stadium)
And the QBs we could touch
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help now,
Let me put him down, down down!
Down!
We are the angry and the deadbeat,
We're hungry for your soul
They were the ones we kept quiet,
When the play-fake wasn't sold
You'd be sweating while you got no balm,
Gotcha, safety in your zone.
They'd be pulling, or we'd nail you
-Take back everything you've thrown.
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help now,
Let me put him down, down down!
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help now,
Let me put him down, down down!
So let us hit thighs ref,
The game must be played.
Blown coverage, good passes
Gets yards either way
Keep quiet, no wrong here
We'll swing through the fray
To the 'backs that we toss
And the 'backs who escape!
Go!
Don't hold him up, ref,
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help, now
Let me put him down, down, down!
Don't hold him up, ref
He can stand his own ground,
He don't need your help, now
Let me put him down, down, down!
Don't hold him up...
(He don't need your help, he'll stand his ground)
Don't hold him up...
(He don't need your help)
No! No! No!
Don't hold him up!
(He don't need your help, let us put him down)
Don't hold me up!
(He don't need your help, he'll stand his ground)
Let us put him down, down, down down!
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