Well, those unconventional teases didn't belong after all. After going what 5-1-1 or something on teases, I went a little teaser crazy. One lesson from last week's 1-2 loss (with a lock loss ;/) is no teases in 7 and under pt. spreads generally. Second, I'm talking myself out of what I really see as happening - my dad and I were trying to decide between the pats + the titans for the second leg of the lock, and we both kept saying we felt really strong about the pats - but second-guessing ourselves due to tebowmania hype. Think the overanalysis has to go.
Anyway, though last week was the wrong spot for teasers, there is a spot I think they belong coming up. I'm teasing the steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami. These are the two places I feel the best teasing - up off the 3 in what everyone sees as a close game, and onto or just under the 3 in a large spread where the question is just how much the game will be won by.
What stops me from making this my lock for week 16 is the status of Roethlisberger - whether he'll play/be 100%. If he plays and isn't seriously hampered, it's hard to see SF's offense putting together enough against pittsburgh's defense to blow them out. One thing besides the obvious things you can say about these two teams is SF has been struggling with blitz schemes, it seems, in the Arizona and Baltimore losses. The (defensive?) coach @ arizona learned those schemes in pittsburgh, and so they'll see the same thing they struggled against last week. Maybe they'll adjust, but my father said he thinks you either see the blitz coming or you don't, and I think there's some truth to that. They faced another blitz-heavy defense in BAL and hadn't made changes by the ARI game.
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