Week 13 books

So its just gonna be book 1/book 6 which will most likely be mirror images - although I may play some parlays or moneyline plays that didn't traditionally belong in book 1. Bets I feel best about did the best, what a shocker. Giving up on diverse spread, wal-mart style value-handicapping works for some, but I prefer to craft a few bets and try to really avoid losing rather than say I feel 55% about this side in every game. Best money line was an intriguing idea, but too risky I think even if I avoided the mistakes I made (ravens was avoidable, buffalo against cincy early I'm not certain). And money lines get less valuable later in the year, it seems. Diverse money line, though it ends positive, as I said it's tough to find good money lines later in the year, and really tough to get them such that 2/3 or 3/4 is a wash on almost sure things. I think that book was like teasers before I discovered teasers - and teasers seem to be better value. Though I don't feel like doing the math, I recall doing some that suggested that.

I made a big mistake in discussing very briefly with my father lines I felt would move yesterday (due to AP's injury, mainly, also both of us had trouble connecting this week), and locking myself out of both: 1) a better lock (since I know NE will cover 13) and 2) a more synergistic play (den +8.5 + den/min < 44.5 as a tease, both stand/fall together b/c of broncos style). So I'll post actual books first, and then what I wish I had gone with. No actual lock this week.

Books based off 4k bankroll (So 2.5/5/10% bet sizes at 100/200/400)

Book 1: Best Bets (+780)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5
200 GB -5.5

Book 6: Actual Bets (+40) - always contains all book 1 bets
No additional bets

A note - money discrepency between 1/6 not due to failed additional bets ~ yet, only one $100 loss additional so far ~ it's just a recent addition and came into existence in time to lose 700 that horrible week 11.

What I wish I'd done -
400 NE -13 + SF -6.5
200 DEN + 8.5 + DEN/MIN <44.5 (though I think unteased versions of both these bets also good, and very likely mathematically and logically better) -- Or maybe just the denver side, unteased. IDK.
200 GB -5.5

For reasoning, see the video: (Link to come)