Week 16 ATS

Well, that which I feared came to pass, Roth's injury was too much. But it also took bad playcalling (few blitzes) and some shoddy reffing to make it happen. Feel a little bad that I didn't see a mobility injury affecting a mobility qb as bad as it did, but even with that I think that was a tough one to get away from, steelers getting 10.

This week I like:
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock)
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease)
200 SF -2

Read on for explanation, or watch the video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR6UKB204W0

Pretty happy with the teams I'm putting money on - no more betting on Tennessee in a lock, at least 3 of the 4 of my lost locks have been betting on average teams (generally in a fade of their opponent), so even though Atl is solid, I'll get money down on new orleans and sleep better at night. I'm sort of fading that atlanta secondary here; and not convinced by atlanta's recent performances, while I think NO is playing better they were @ first meeting. I also don't think first meeting is predictive because of how huge home field is for both of these two teams this year. What convinced me to make this a lock and not just another pick was that Peyton is taking the right philosophy for a cover here, saying these games matter more (whereas some coaches, while they won't admit they're giving up/resting, can show it if you read between the lines) and calling this a big game. He'll take it seriously, and the saints will play hard to get the first round bye.

NE also have been enormous ATS this year, but the giants are pretty shaky. That leg of the tease alone is probably scarier than any of the other plays just because the giants can flop hard, despite talent, and their defense can make anyone look good. But they have the better offense, and their losses lately make me think they are undervalued here (last six games they've played NE, NO, GB, SF, DAL, WAS, but people just see they've lost 4 of last 5). Also turnovers tend to bounce generally (bad week good week bad week) so Eli may hold on, and the trash talk in NY makes this a big game (and the giants tend to play to level of their opp) and may motivate bradshaw to carry or coughlin to stop betting on jacobs. The jets are looking shakier defensively, and sanchez has been under 200 yds last 4 I heard. But enough about that. I have to take this tease because I have a great deal of trouble seeing the dolphins beating new england in new england. NE still has the top seed to play for and the dolphins, for all they've looked better, have done it through soft scheduling and are stepping up in class this week, as the broncos did last week. The pats d is scary here, but at least they're better against the run and have the potential to get picks from moore. Nice to see Fasano is out, too.

SF is SF, you've heard about their d by now, and they, like NO, are playing for the bye this week. I'm happy to have my money on them. Seahawks have looked okay lately, but that's been playing the rams twice, the bears as they are now, the redskins (actually losing at home to the skins, though the skins been playing a little better), and I forget what other underwhelming team. So they're overvalued here. Lynch had those great runs, but nada against a good run d (chitown much better than stl/was/whoever else it was I think) and so that should continue this week. That win last week looks better than it is too cause of chitown's 5 turnovers, without that it woulda been closer against an injured chicago. The zeitgeist is the hawks rock at home but they're actually only 4-3 I believe. Now they have a solid d too, but they don't have the pass rush that tripped up Smith in the Bal and Ari games (and should have in the Pitt game but for lousy playcalling - it did when they called it) - they're 22nd in sacks with under 30, so I think san francisco's offense will be successful enough here.