Sunday of Week 12 went well, 3-0 best bets, 1-2 diverse bets, 1 for 1 on the money line plays. Best bets are the only ones I'd actually make, so 3 for 3 :) Going to update books, write down early lines, here, but I thought I'd mention the ones I like most at first glance before I use this as a notepad.
oakland +3 @ miami - I still don't believe miami's for real - I thought they'd cover dallas -7 but lose (took dal -.5) with the way dallas has been playing, was right on the money there, and I think oakland's a better team than dallas is playing as right now. Gotta feel like oakland gonna go beat up miami. Course they could have another 100+ yard penalty game like minnesota (and many other games), didn't see a hell of a lot against chicago so they may be due. But palmer looking better week to week, the possibility mcfadden plays, hopefully oakland will be less injured than they were against chitown too.
atl +1 @ hou - very hard for me to bet against houston, but without leinart they are going to be even more run-centric, and atlanta has the #2 run defense. May be a good matchup. I like the tease a lot - I see atlanta winning this game, so atlanta +7.5 or 8 sounds great.
gb -6.5 @ nyg - we'll see how the giants play tonight, and whether bradshaw will play, but green bay is green bay is green bay. Giants secondary strikes me as somewhat suspect, though they're tied with themselves defensively against the run/pass (20th). I have seen some games where rodgers gets sacked a lot this year and doesn't seem too phased - he's not like brady in that way, not as tempted to fade him against a good pass rush.
sd -3 @ jax - Maybe I'm still drinking the kool-aid on san diego, but there's not much good to say about jacksonville. They're still passing the ball 40+ times and running it 20- times, so until they correct that I'm tempted to fade them. I guess one thing I'd want to know is how jacksonville does against the deep ball before I bet this.
jets -3.5 @ was - maybe @ -3 because washington. Probably not though.
Two other tease plays I really like (first is atlanta): 1. cin + 14/14.5 @ pit - without polamolu, in the rematch, cincy's d against pitt's o, hard to see them losing by more than 2 touchdowns. Possibly my favorite tease as I look at it. 2. ind + 28 @ new england - 28's a hell of a lot of points. NE could very well pull a Saints on Indy, true, and they certainly are meanspirited enough at times, but indy looked a little better this week with addai back. Granted, it was against carolina's d, but they'll be playing new england's d. If I can say indy gets 17, new england would have to get 46 to cover it. I see NE getting 31-42. Worried the blowout might dispirit them and they don't get their 17, but I tend to figure they will.
Which brings me to a question. Someone said you can play totals on a team in a contest - I'll probably google this later - but if someone can tell me, is that the case? If so, since the line is 21, and the total is 48.5, there are 14 points out to Indy (48.5 - 21 = 27.5 / 2 = 13.75). I like indy to get more than 14... 17 or 20 seems a solid bet.
That's all for now, but going to use this as a notepad - this is more for me -
oak +3 @ miami
atl +1 @ hou/tease?
gb -6.5
sd -3 @ jax
(jets) (@ -3.5 now)
chi -8 v kc? run d good gainst bush
tease cin +14.5
tease ind + 28 (.5? line prolly away)
ne/ind over 48.5
chi/kc under 38?
cin/pit over 41
bal/cle under 37.5?
ind over 14
Book 1:780
Book 2:-840
Book 3: -340
Book 4: +600
Book 5: -1530
Book 6: 40
Monday, November 28, 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Week 12 books
Aight, off on the GB one. Way too huge of a number to call, I guess. And it looked like, all thanksgiving, the refs were calling every penalty. All 3 games went under, and I'm going to be looking at nationally broadcasted games to see if they are more highly officiated and if that favors the under. I haven't been paying attention MNF/SNF/TNF so far, but it's something to consider.
So books for the rest of week 12, after that bleak week 11 (all books 4k bankroll) -
Book 1: Best spread/o/u -20 (after Thanksgiving loss 200 gb/det > 55.5)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520)
200 Car -3 @ Ind
200 Hou -3 @ Jax
Book 2: Diverse Spread/O/U-1220 (after same Thanksgiving loss for 200, loss on sf/bal over 100, push on tease play) 400
200 Pit/atl tease (130 juice, so 260)
200 Hou -3 @ jax
100 Car -3 @ ind
100 buf/nyj < 42
100 tease cin -.5 v cle + tb +10 (120)
100 cle/cin < 37.5
Book 3: Best moneyline -340
Off
Book 4: Diverse moneyline +500
600 Pit
Book 5: Parlays -1530
Off
Book 6: Actual Bets I'd Make -760
Duplicates Book 1.
Best bets -
Teaser. Pit/KC - can tease it down to 3, pittsburgh vs palko-lead kc at home in close enough to a pickem... ATL/Min - can tease it under 3, atlanta vs Petersonless min in atlanta. Few other injuries on min - shancoe harvin prolly will both play, but injured. rudolph, others. atl pretty healthy. julio jones comin back.
Car -3 @ Ind - yea, if indy gonna get one, this does look to be a good spot after the bye w/ addai prolly back in. And you can say a bunch about cellar-dweller teams doing well towards the end of the season cause lines go against them. But Indy shouldn't be able to keep up with carolina's high-powered offense. Indy with the worst defense in the nfl should let cam have a field day. Like I say, w Addai in and carolina's weak d too, I think this may be a shootout, but ultimately, indy will make mistakes offensively and lose this track meet. (Very tempted to go over 46, but even though I expect them to score this week, can't really trust 'em after the points they've put up the last few. )
Hou -3 @ jax - see the thursday post, basically houston's not passing that much, leinart may be okay, and houston still has jacksonville beat in every area when you get down to it. There's a reason this line has moved to -6.5, just puzzled as why it started so low. But thankful...
Other bets considered
Buf/nyj < 42 - jackson out, LT out. Both offenses playing poorly lately. Jets good d. Sanchez looks like he's breakin down a little on the picks, and buffalo might capitalize (hopefully not for pick sixes, but picks after drives). Still, this could go over. Spiller could play well for buffalo, buffalo could turn it around, and/or give it up to the jets who tend to play better towards the end of the year. So this is just going to be watched in book 2.
cin -.5 + tb + 10 tease - I like cincy at home in a pickem against cleveland, even though cleveland played better last week. There were some injuries defensively for jacksonville during that game, and cinci should be tougher competition all around. Cinci getting AJ green back. tampa bay showed something against green bay covering that 14 point spread there, and their d is pretty solid. The rankings don't really reflect it, but aside from Minnesota and Indy early, they've been playing the toughest of competition. They may have the toughest schedule to date. They've had a lot of close games where they held their opponents down, and should be able to at least keep it within 10. On the other side, could be hasselback's hampered by that elbow injury. CJ seems more of a liability - yes, he ran well against carolina, but that is carolina. That being said, tennessee has more playoff hopes, and probably wants it more.
cle/cin < 37.5 - Two tough defensive teams. Cinci been more of a passing team lately, and cle very high in the ratings defensively against the pass. That said, the first meeting of these two teams was over this number, and cleveland's playing well (for them) lately, and cinci I think can score. But it just seems decent when you look at it.
Pit money line - I think there's value here. I mean, say big ben goes down, pit's backups are still better than tyler palko and pittsburgh is still better than kc. This should be more like -900 for pit. You have to say there's a better than 90% chance pit wins here - it would take a hell of a lot of "any given sunday" juju to switch this outcome.
So books for the rest of week 12, after that bleak week 11 (all books 4k bankroll) -
Book 1: Best spread/o/u -20 (after Thanksgiving loss 200 gb/det > 55.5)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520)
200 Car -3 @ Ind
200 Hou -3 @ Jax
Book 2: Diverse Spread/O/U-1220 (after same Thanksgiving loss for 200, loss on sf/bal over 100, push on tease play) 400
200 Pit/atl tease (130 juice, so 260)
200 Hou -3 @ jax
100 Car -3 @ ind
100 buf/nyj < 42
100 tease cin -.5 v cle + tb +10 (120)
100 cle/cin < 37.5
Book 3: Best moneyline -340
Off
Book 4: Diverse moneyline +500
600 Pit
Book 5: Parlays -1530
Off
Book 6: Actual Bets I'd Make -760
Duplicates Book 1.
Best bets -
Teaser. Pit/KC - can tease it down to 3, pittsburgh vs palko-lead kc at home in close enough to a pickem... ATL/Min - can tease it under 3, atlanta vs Petersonless min in atlanta. Few other injuries on min - shancoe harvin prolly will both play, but injured. rudolph, others. atl pretty healthy. julio jones comin back.
Car -3 @ Ind - yea, if indy gonna get one, this does look to be a good spot after the bye w/ addai prolly back in. And you can say a bunch about cellar-dweller teams doing well towards the end of the season cause lines go against them. But Indy shouldn't be able to keep up with carolina's high-powered offense. Indy with the worst defense in the nfl should let cam have a field day. Like I say, w Addai in and carolina's weak d too, I think this may be a shootout, but ultimately, indy will make mistakes offensively and lose this track meet. (Very tempted to go over 46, but even though I expect them to score this week, can't really trust 'em after the points they've put up the last few. )
Hou -3 @ jax - see the thursday post, basically houston's not passing that much, leinart may be okay, and houston still has jacksonville beat in every area when you get down to it. There's a reason this line has moved to -6.5, just puzzled as why it started so low. But thankful...
Other bets considered
Buf/nyj < 42 - jackson out, LT out. Both offenses playing poorly lately. Jets good d. Sanchez looks like he's breakin down a little on the picks, and buffalo might capitalize (hopefully not for pick sixes, but picks after drives). Still, this could go over. Spiller could play well for buffalo, buffalo could turn it around, and/or give it up to the jets who tend to play better towards the end of the year. So this is just going to be watched in book 2.
cin -.5 + tb + 10 tease - I like cincy at home in a pickem against cleveland, even though cleveland played better last week. There were some injuries defensively for jacksonville during that game, and cinci should be tougher competition all around. Cinci getting AJ green back. tampa bay showed something against green bay covering that 14 point spread there, and their d is pretty solid. The rankings don't really reflect it, but aside from Minnesota and Indy early, they've been playing the toughest of competition. They may have the toughest schedule to date. They've had a lot of close games where they held their opponents down, and should be able to at least keep it within 10. On the other side, could be hasselback's hampered by that elbow injury. CJ seems more of a liability - yes, he ran well against carolina, but that is carolina. That being said, tennessee has more playoff hopes, and probably wants it more.
cle/cin < 37.5 - Two tough defensive teams. Cinci been more of a passing team lately, and cle very high in the ratings defensively against the pass. That said, the first meeting of these two teams was over this number, and cleveland's playing well (for them) lately, and cinci I think can score. But it just seems decent when you look at it.
Pit money line - I think there's value here. I mean, say big ben goes down, pit's backups are still better than tyler palko and pittsburgh is still better than kc. This should be more like -900 for pit. You have to say there's a better than 90% chance pit wins here - it would take a hell of a lot of "any given sunday" juju to switch this outcome.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Thanksgiving bet/other bets for week 12
Tough week last week - the very toughest I've had. Probably a much needed dose of humility and hopefully helps me get my act together and finish strong this year and be scrupulous in my plays as I start to bet money on these games next year.
For the thanksgiving games, I see the very best play as the over in the GB/DET game. The number's 55.5, 56 some places, and it might seem scary if it weren't for the two teams playing in this game. As I see it, this is the game where, if you'd ask me 5 weeks ago to predict the highest scoring game, I would have had to call this it. It just LOOKS like a shootout. And even more so now that gb's probably without their starting RB starks. And there are a few defensive injuries for detroit. And I really like that it's in a dome, that's always good for offenses. I like that the weaker team Det is the home team, I'm hoping that gives them confidence enough to score. GB will be facing a tough detroit defense, but they've been unstoppable offensively this far, and are looking forward to this test (from what I've heard). Detroit should profit from facing the 31st pass defense in the league, and even though GB will get some picks like they always do - that could as easily help the over as hurt it. So we said all along this would be a shootout, and the only things that have changed incline us to think even more that this will be a shootout.
2 others bets I considered but think are weaker --- The first is a 6.5 pt teaser - dallas -.5 and san fran +10. Don't really see baltimore blowing out anyone with a decent offense, they only did pitt in the season opener, with 7 turnovers. There are some starters injured for BAL defensively, and I think san fran is still not getting the credit they deserve, so this may be a statement game for them - they may win. I think with the thanksgiving energy, both teams will play well so its harder still to see blowout here. Dallas -1 - teams miami has beaten last 3 games have been weaker competition, and I know I said that when I took buffalo as my best bet last week, but even miami players saying buffalo "laid down" for them. Dallas won't, and Romo should hit quite well against that miami secondary. However, it is a concern that tony fiametta - the fullback who's been blocking well for dallas - is out again this week. When I read about his being out last week, I was scared my play on dallas wouldn't cover and it didn't - Murray got only 50 yards, his lowest as a pro. So between fiametta's absence and miami's good run d, dallas will be pretty 1-dimensional this week, I don't think they're a good play at -7. But I really like them to get it done in a pickem, at home. They're just better than Miami's beaten.
3rd bet worth considering to me is actually the over in the sf/bal game. Baltimore's lowest score at home this year is 29, and 4 of the 5 games they've played in baltimore have been against excellent defenses - pitt, cinci, hou, and one other good d team I don't remember offhand (5th is arizona). Also, they need every game in that tough division, so they should be coming out every drive to score. And so should san fran, who as I said, hasn't been getting credit. Also there are the sibling rivalry and thanksgiving energies going around, I think this will be more explosive than you would imagine with two top-ranked defenses. And I think this line is undervalued because these are both widely recognized "defense teams," and a fact that might be under the radar is that they're both tied for 7th in points scored (25.6 a game). Oh, a postscript - as I said, san fran had a good day in the air against the giants, and I think they will against teams who have solid pass rushes, because Smith favors short, quick passes so good pass rushes aren't quite as scary to them. And BAL is near the top there as well.
That's it for thanksgiving.
Hou -3 @ jax - I don't think matt schaub's injury will have the impact this number suggests. They are a balanced offense, and have only been passing something like 25-30 times a game (not sure average or anything, but many games have been under 30 passes). And IDK - matt leinart had talent in college, he's been here in houston waiting for his shot, probably more humble than he was when he came in as a rookie after getting beat out for the top spot in arizona. Houston staff say he's put in the effort there. Enough about Leinart. Johnson should be back this week, good news good news. This team stronger in pretty much every dimension than jacksonville, when you think about it. Just playing too well lately, everyone said they'd drop off when they lost mario williams, when andre johnson went out, but they haven't. Well, now they're down schaub, but johnson's back, and I think they stay strong against a Blaine Gabbert-lead JAX.
I'm going to be watching the line in the pitt-kc game. It might drop down now that KC has orton and not palko, but it shouldn't - because this will be orton's first start with kc, and new qbs generally do poorly as they get acclimated. I want to tease this down, if the line moves and/or I do a larger teaser 6.5/7, I may be able to get this at pitt -3, which I feel is as near a sure thing as you can get in the nfl. Another large favorite I want to tease towards pickem is Atlanta at home against a Peterson-less Minnesota. Atlanta always good at home, min should be pretty 1-dimensional and easy to stop. I like them to cover the 9 too, but I really like these two games teased together.
I hadn't messed with teasers before but I saw one of the guys on youtube who's 70+% ATS this year favors them, They seem powerful when you can tease over key numbers and in the right situations (like he got cleveland +9 against saint louis, or vice versa... neither of those teams is beating anyone by 9... and he got ne - 7.5 against the jets, no way the JETS woulda beat the PATS by more than a touchdown). Probably something of a sucker bet because you need two games to not be blowouts in the wrong way, and this is after all the Never Figure League, but I want to mess with them.
Watching a few things with injuries, most significantly - if Addai will be out again this week, I really like both Car -3 and indy < 20.5. Carolina's D is suspect, but Indy's offense has been terrible without addai, before that they were good for 17ish it seemed to me.
As it stands:
Book 1: Best bets
400 Unpicked, poss. some version of ATL -3 v MIN/PIT -3ish v KC teased
200 Hou - 3 @ jax
200 GB/DET > 55.5
Book 2: Diverse spread
Same 3 as book 1, @ 200 each
100 sf/bal > 39
100 dal -.5 v mia teased with sf + 10 @ bal
Book 6: Actual (What I would actually put money on)
Same as book 1 for now.
For the thanksgiving games, I see the very best play as the over in the GB/DET game. The number's 55.5, 56 some places, and it might seem scary if it weren't for the two teams playing in this game. As I see it, this is the game where, if you'd ask me 5 weeks ago to predict the highest scoring game, I would have had to call this it. It just LOOKS like a shootout. And even more so now that gb's probably without their starting RB starks. And there are a few defensive injuries for detroit. And I really like that it's in a dome, that's always good for offenses. I like that the weaker team Det is the home team, I'm hoping that gives them confidence enough to score. GB will be facing a tough detroit defense, but they've been unstoppable offensively this far, and are looking forward to this test (from what I've heard). Detroit should profit from facing the 31st pass defense in the league, and even though GB will get some picks like they always do - that could as easily help the over as hurt it. So we said all along this would be a shootout, and the only things that have changed incline us to think even more that this will be a shootout.
2 others bets I considered but think are weaker --- The first is a 6.5 pt teaser - dallas -.5 and san fran +10. Don't really see baltimore blowing out anyone with a decent offense, they only did pitt in the season opener, with 7 turnovers. There are some starters injured for BAL defensively, and I think san fran is still not getting the credit they deserve, so this may be a statement game for them - they may win. I think with the thanksgiving energy, both teams will play well so its harder still to see blowout here. Dallas -1 - teams miami has beaten last 3 games have been weaker competition, and I know I said that when I took buffalo as my best bet last week, but even miami players saying buffalo "laid down" for them. Dallas won't, and Romo should hit quite well against that miami secondary. However, it is a concern that tony fiametta - the fullback who's been blocking well for dallas - is out again this week. When I read about his being out last week, I was scared my play on dallas wouldn't cover and it didn't - Murray got only 50 yards, his lowest as a pro. So between fiametta's absence and miami's good run d, dallas will be pretty 1-dimensional this week, I don't think they're a good play at -7. But I really like them to get it done in a pickem, at home. They're just better than Miami's beaten.
3rd bet worth considering to me is actually the over in the sf/bal game. Baltimore's lowest score at home this year is 29, and 4 of the 5 games they've played in baltimore have been against excellent defenses - pitt, cinci, hou, and one other good d team I don't remember offhand (5th is arizona). Also, they need every game in that tough division, so they should be coming out every drive to score. And so should san fran, who as I said, hasn't been getting credit. Also there are the sibling rivalry and thanksgiving energies going around, I think this will be more explosive than you would imagine with two top-ranked defenses. And I think this line is undervalued because these are both widely recognized "defense teams," and a fact that might be under the radar is that they're both tied for 7th in points scored (25.6 a game). Oh, a postscript - as I said, san fran had a good day in the air against the giants, and I think they will against teams who have solid pass rushes, because Smith favors short, quick passes so good pass rushes aren't quite as scary to them. And BAL is near the top there as well.
That's it for thanksgiving.
Hou -3 @ jax - I don't think matt schaub's injury will have the impact this number suggests. They are a balanced offense, and have only been passing something like 25-30 times a game (not sure average or anything, but many games have been under 30 passes). And IDK - matt leinart had talent in college, he's been here in houston waiting for his shot, probably more humble than he was when he came in as a rookie after getting beat out for the top spot in arizona. Houston staff say he's put in the effort there. Enough about Leinart. Johnson should be back this week, good news good news. This team stronger in pretty much every dimension than jacksonville, when you think about it. Just playing too well lately, everyone said they'd drop off when they lost mario williams, when andre johnson went out, but they haven't. Well, now they're down schaub, but johnson's back, and I think they stay strong against a Blaine Gabbert-lead JAX.
I'm going to be watching the line in the pitt-kc game. It might drop down now that KC has orton and not palko, but it shouldn't - because this will be orton's first start with kc, and new qbs generally do poorly as they get acclimated. I want to tease this down, if the line moves and/or I do a larger teaser 6.5/7, I may be able to get this at pitt -3, which I feel is as near a sure thing as you can get in the nfl. Another large favorite I want to tease towards pickem is Atlanta at home against a Peterson-less Minnesota. Atlanta always good at home, min should be pretty 1-dimensional and easy to stop. I like them to cover the 9 too, but I really like these two games teased together.
I hadn't messed with teasers before but I saw one of the guys on youtube who's 70+% ATS this year favors them, They seem powerful when you can tease over key numbers and in the right situations (like he got cleveland +9 against saint louis, or vice versa... neither of those teams is beating anyone by 9... and he got ne - 7.5 against the jets, no way the JETS woulda beat the PATS by more than a touchdown). Probably something of a sucker bet because you need two games to not be blowouts in the wrong way, and this is after all the Never Figure League, but I want to mess with them.
Watching a few things with injuries, most significantly - if Addai will be out again this week, I really like both Car -3 and indy < 20.5. Carolina's D is suspect, but Indy's offense has been terrible without addai, before that they were good for 17ish it seemed to me.
As it stands:
Book 1: Best bets
400 Unpicked, poss. some version of ATL -3 v MIN/PIT -3ish v KC teased
200 Hou - 3 @ jax
200 GB/DET > 55.5
Book 2: Diverse spread
Same 3 as book 1, @ 200 each
100 sf/bal > 39
100 dal -.5 v mia teased with sf + 10 @ bal
Book 6: Actual (What I would actually put money on)
Same as book 1 for now.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Get the fuck up, this boat is real (kinda)
I'm on a boat and... I'm goin fast and.. I got a nautical themed pashmina afghan. Alright, enough of that. Also enough of testing the waters, after 10 weeks, and 6ish weeks of the 5-book format. I'm starting to get a sense of what works and what doesn't, enough that I want to prepare for playing for keeps in the 2012-13 season by pretending I'm playing for keeps now. So I'm making a book 6, and this is just those bets I would actually put money on. I know the format here is kind of weird, with me watching different types of bets to see how I like them, but if you want to see where I feel strongest, you can look to book 6. And it should be no shocker that book 6 is going to be almost an exact duplicate of book 1, with a smattering of money line plays akin to book 4 (that is, to win 100, possibly balanced so that a 3/4 split is a breakeven point where I feel better than 75% about the games, and not large money line plays to win 300) and possibly a parlay or two from book five.
Going to start it zero sum, even though I could say I've been doing well on best bets and since this will be almost a duplicate, I could try to estimate where it would be, but no. Also could say I'm lucky to be putting this together now and not before the Jets game, but as that was the 'best bet' I felt worst about (see youtube vid posted in week 11 post), I might have gotten away from it. Either way, it starts now, and I will be thinking about each bet like it's for money (that's why you'll see the parlays I do play as probably $100 plays, not $200 plays as in book 5). Of course, based off 4k bankroll, since that's what I plan on betting with next year.
Book 6: Fo Real (ish)
400 Buf + 3 (@ 115 - so 460 after juice)
200 Dal -7
200 NE -15
100 Jax -1 + Jax/Cle < 34.5
P.S. Adding one bet at least to book 2 on the wk 11 post
Going to start it zero sum, even though I could say I've been doing well on best bets and since this will be almost a duplicate, I could try to estimate where it would be, but no. Also could say I'm lucky to be putting this together now and not before the Jets game, but as that was the 'best bet' I felt worst about (see youtube vid posted in week 11 post), I might have gotten away from it. Either way, it starts now, and I will be thinking about each bet like it's for money (that's why you'll see the parlays I do play as probably $100 plays, not $200 plays as in book 5). Of course, based off 4k bankroll, since that's what I plan on betting with next year.
Book 6: Fo Real (ish)
400 Buf + 3 (@ 115 - so 460 after juice)
200 Dal -7
200 NE -15
100 Jax -1 + Jax/Cle < 34.5
P.S. Adding one bet at least to book 2 on the wk 11 post
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Week 11 books
Here we are. Best bets doing the best, what I most think worth consideration. Find the reasoning for those here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvz5Mg4Lua4. Here's the books, all books based 4k bankroll -
Book 1: Best spread (+880)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia
200 ne -14.5 v kc
200 dal -7.5 @ was
200 nyj -4.5 @ den
Book 2: diverse spread (-540)
200 buf +2.5
200 ne -14.5
200 dal -7.5
200 nyj -4.5
100 cle/jax <35
100 nyg -3
EDIT 100 chi -3.5
Book 3: best money (-640)
EDIT: 1020 DAL (300)
Book 4: diverse money (+500)
EDIT: Yep, definitely off again this week - sad day.
Book 5: parlays (-930)
jax -1 + jax/cle < 35
ari +10 + ari/sf > 41.5
nyj -5.5 + nyj/den < 41
giants pick - Jeremy Maclin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out for this game. Vick with two broken ribs probably won't want to play against the giants pass rush, there's no one worse to face in that situation. If he does play, he should be hesitant to run. I'm not so sure it's a good thing, because the eagles are 2-0 when McCoy gets 25+ carries, 1-6 (win to rams early) when he gets less. I worry that if Young starts, they'll run it like they should. But that number not necessarily reflective, because it's a question of chicken and egg. Do they win because he gets carries or does he get carries because they're winning? I think a little bit of both. So it's a concern, but my dad pointed out Young has been horrible lately, so I figure the giants are better off on balance for Vick's injury. Have to like their pass rush to get in on young some and shake up that performance even more.
The giants really need this game, with the cowboys' weak schedule they need to stay on top and bounce back from that SF loss. The eagles are pretty much playing for pride at this point, they'd have to win out to have a shot at the division, and they've got a couple of tough out of division games. Manning seems to have a pretty solid killer instinct this year, playing really well in the 4th quarter. Bradshaw didn't practice today, which is unfortunate, it would be icing to have him back and the run game going. All in all, though, I have to like them getting just 3 points at home here, as that makes it a pick 'em minus homefield advantage and they are the better team.
jax -1 + jax/cle < 35 - cleveland's got a good d, but not against the run - I think they're 29th or 30th, so jones-drew should have a good day. Hardesty didn't practice today, so maybe cleveland will be without a decent running back again. Even if he plays, w/ a hamstring he won't be 100%. With the ineptitude of these two offenses and efficiency of their defenses, the under just jumps out at you - and that's why it's moved down from 37.5 - 34 (in some places). That's about all there is to say about the under. I think the jags' d is better than cleveland's in total, since jacksonville's faced a tougher schedule and consistently held teams under their averages, and with jacksonville having the best offensive player on the field, I tend to like the spread.
Now, prolly my favorite part of this parlay is the correlation. Jacksonville's season high this year is 20 points, so I feel like if they win it, it stays under 35. If Cleveland is to win they'd have to stop jones-drew enough, and it's more likely to be something like 20-17 cleveland with cleveland putting up the best offensive showing they've had lately. So I feel like I'm getting two bets for one, I'll be very surprised if Jax wins and it goes over. Jones-Drew would have to have a record day, not just a good or great one.
ari + 10 + ari/sf > 41.5- Speaking of good correlation. Arizona has been mid-20s in the league in every stat defensively, so I don't see them as able to stop San Fran. Hell, they gave baltimore 30 points, and minnesota under mcnabb 34, and the rest of the games on their schedule aren't exactly high-powered offenses either that are putting up these stats against their defense. So if arizona stays within ten they'll have to score points.
But why want to take arizona + 10 anyway? SF is great ATS this year (maybe perfect). Well, SF is great ATS because they haven't been getting recognized, but the lines are starting to reflect their talents here I think. And not taking into account the fact that Arizona has talent as a team and has been coming on lately. They've underperformed this season but are picking it up. They can put up some points. The biggest reason I like them here is because SF's defense may be amazing, but they are 26th against the pass. And so I have to like Fitzgerald to show up big here.
jets -5.5 + den/nyj <41 - I say why I like the jets side in the video. The under - the jets are good for 24 a game +/- 3 and they are slotted for 23.5 here. Their offense is weak but they generally have a good turnover margin and are very consistently in that range. If they come out and have a good game (27), the broncos need to score more than 14 to push this over. It's possible, with Tebow craziness in the fourth quarter, but I think that jets D is just too solid. Ryan has a chapter on dealing with the option in his book on defense. Short week is tough for the jets with this unconvential denver offense, but I still just like their D - when denver faced its first real test under tebow in the lions, they put up ten. Against the dolphins good d, they got 15 in regulation, almost all of it in the last 5 minutes (a lot of that can be chalked to the way the dolphins play in the 4th quarter). So I don't really think denver gets it done against a good d, and I think this goes under. That said, this is prolly the parlay I feel weakest about, just due to general tebow craziness. ***oh, yeah, mcgahee limited in practice today, they sounded like he was going to play earlier in the week, but now I really like this, whether or not he plays it sounds like that hamstring will be a problem**
Book 1: Best spread (+880)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia
200 ne -14.5 v kc
200 dal -7.5 @ was
200 nyj -4.5 @ den
Book 2: diverse spread (-540)
200 buf +2.5
200 ne -14.5
200 dal -7.5
200 nyj -4.5
100 cle/jax <35
100 nyg -3
EDIT 100 chi -3.5
Book 3: best money (-640)
EDIT: 1020 DAL (300)
Book 4: diverse money (+500)
EDIT: Yep, definitely off again this week - sad day.
Book 5: parlays (-930)
jax -1 + jax/cle < 35
ari +10 + ari/sf > 41.5
nyj -5.5 + nyj/den < 41
giants pick - Jeremy Maclin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out for this game. Vick with two broken ribs probably won't want to play against the giants pass rush, there's no one worse to face in that situation. If he does play, he should be hesitant to run. I'm not so sure it's a good thing, because the eagles are 2-0 when McCoy gets 25+ carries, 1-6 (win to rams early) when he gets less. I worry that if Young starts, they'll run it like they should. But that number not necessarily reflective, because it's a question of chicken and egg. Do they win because he gets carries or does he get carries because they're winning? I think a little bit of both. So it's a concern, but my dad pointed out Young has been horrible lately, so I figure the giants are better off on balance for Vick's injury. Have to like their pass rush to get in on young some and shake up that performance even more.
The giants really need this game, with the cowboys' weak schedule they need to stay on top and bounce back from that SF loss. The eagles are pretty much playing for pride at this point, they'd have to win out to have a shot at the division, and they've got a couple of tough out of division games. Manning seems to have a pretty solid killer instinct this year, playing really well in the 4th quarter. Bradshaw didn't practice today, which is unfortunate, it would be icing to have him back and the run game going. All in all, though, I have to like them getting just 3 points at home here, as that makes it a pick 'em minus homefield advantage and they are the better team.
jax -1 + jax/cle < 35 - cleveland's got a good d, but not against the run - I think they're 29th or 30th, so jones-drew should have a good day. Hardesty didn't practice today, so maybe cleveland will be without a decent running back again. Even if he plays, w/ a hamstring he won't be 100%. With the ineptitude of these two offenses and efficiency of their defenses, the under just jumps out at you - and that's why it's moved down from 37.5 - 34 (in some places). That's about all there is to say about the under. I think the jags' d is better than cleveland's in total, since jacksonville's faced a tougher schedule and consistently held teams under their averages, and with jacksonville having the best offensive player on the field, I tend to like the spread.
Now, prolly my favorite part of this parlay is the correlation. Jacksonville's season high this year is 20 points, so I feel like if they win it, it stays under 35. If Cleveland is to win they'd have to stop jones-drew enough, and it's more likely to be something like 20-17 cleveland with cleveland putting up the best offensive showing they've had lately. So I feel like I'm getting two bets for one, I'll be very surprised if Jax wins and it goes over. Jones-Drew would have to have a record day, not just a good or great one.
ari + 10 + ari/sf > 41.5- Speaking of good correlation. Arizona has been mid-20s in the league in every stat defensively, so I don't see them as able to stop San Fran. Hell, they gave baltimore 30 points, and minnesota under mcnabb 34, and the rest of the games on their schedule aren't exactly high-powered offenses either that are putting up these stats against their defense. So if arizona stays within ten they'll have to score points.
But why want to take arizona + 10 anyway? SF is great ATS this year (maybe perfect). Well, SF is great ATS because they haven't been getting recognized, but the lines are starting to reflect their talents here I think. And not taking into account the fact that Arizona has talent as a team and has been coming on lately. They've underperformed this season but are picking it up. They can put up some points. The biggest reason I like them here is because SF's defense may be amazing, but they are 26th against the pass. And so I have to like Fitzgerald to show up big here.
jets -5.5 + den/nyj <41 - I say why I like the jets side in the video. The under - the jets are good for 24 a game +/- 3 and they are slotted for 23.5 here. Their offense is weak but they generally have a good turnover margin and are very consistently in that range. If they come out and have a good game (27), the broncos need to score more than 14 to push this over. It's possible, with Tebow craziness in the fourth quarter, but I think that jets D is just too solid. Ryan has a chapter on dealing with the option in his book on defense. Short week is tough for the jets with this unconvential denver offense, but I still just like their D - when denver faced its first real test under tebow in the lions, they put up ten. Against the dolphins good d, they got 15 in regulation, almost all of it in the last 5 minutes (a lot of that can be chalked to the way the dolphins play in the 4th quarter). So I don't really think denver gets it done against a good d, and I think this goes under. That said, this is prolly the parlay I feel weakest about, just due to general tebow craziness. ***oh, yeah, mcgahee limited in practice today, they sounded like he was going to play earlier in the week, but now I really like this, whether or not he plays it sounds like that hamstring will be a problem**
Monday, November 14, 2011
Week 11 Early Lines
Week 10 went great, 2-1 best bets, actually 3-1 on the other single bets (weird that those did better this week), 2-1 on 2-play parlays. Maybe best week yet.
And I'm lookin forward to week 11. I liked a lot of the lines... the lines seem to be getting better right now, maybe public opinion is diverging more from the state of things in the nfl and vegas looks to profit. Two are a must:
buf + 2.5 @ mia - The only explanation for this line is Miami winning two games against bad teams and buffalo losing two games against good teams, and the public having a short term memory so Vegas thinks they'll trap people on the Miami side. I think they're right. This line will move to +3, and I'll snatch it up. No way Miami can beat a good team, no way in hell they beat 'em by over 3, lock of the week.
dal - 7.5 @ was - Gotta like Murray against washington's run defense, I think Dallas is starting to get it together all-around, and I've gotta like their D against Washington's O. I admit I'm worried the rookie rb Helu has talent in WAS, he ran well against sf and mia, but thankfully didn't get many carries.
I'm hopeful that people will want the huge home dog (even though this line doesn't fit the beating WAS is due for next week), but it will probably move away from us. Will keep fingers crossed for big -7, but it will still prolly be a best bet at -7.5.
I worry slightly every week that WAS will adjust, but that doesn't keep me from picking against them. I'm probably going to keep picking against washington, miami, indy, etc. I especially like, as a formula, good team @ really bad team, because while home field may be huge in most NFL games, mismatches are still mismatches. And I don't think they make the 6pt difference in those cases (i.e. I like dal -7.5 @ was better than I'd like dal -10.5 in london or dal -13.5 in dal ---it's 3 to neutral, 3 to home, I believe).
Other lines that stood out -
-cin +7 @ bal - if I can get that at 7.5, I like cinci to shut down bal's offense enough to not get massacred.
-NE - 12 v KC - home team, monday night, patriots being patriots, I like them to run up the score and not just win. Especially like this if matt cassell injured.
-JAX + CLE < 36.5 - I've been liking bad offenses and the under lately, they just seem so damn reliable. I got 2 last week, and considered the cle/stl one, but unfortunately missed out.
We'll see how the research bears those out though.
What lines are you looking at? Or who's gonna beat who?
p.s. random week 10 thoughts-
-fred jackson can't block for shit. maybe he just trying to sell play fakes too much, but seemed like every time I looked up he was missing blocks
-atl may be a good under candidate. they ate up 10 minutes of clock time on that first drive, seem to pass a bit to the middle of the field, and mostly march steadily. they may get overvalued. but idk, maybe i just got burned by them 2 weeks in a row...
-sf gettin it done w/o gore. i worried smith would have a good day against the giants, an he did. here's why, and where he will in the future - that nyg pass rush, so great against brady, not so great against sf's little dump passes. look for smith to actually be good against teams who blitz well.
-was worried about homecookin @ met life cause of the past.. too busy hoping my lock to come through, but the pats did have a lot of penalties, and my dad said he saw some no-calls favoring nyj. still going to factor that into decisions played by the jets there, and maybe see if same case w giants.
-lot of jets turnovers in that game. their offense is good for 24, but against pats they knew they needed more and overextended... they may give it up more against high-scoring teams.. although the pats have a great takeaway rate, so that's got to be a lot of it too.
edit: note to self book totals 980 -540 -640 500 -930
And I'm lookin forward to week 11. I liked a lot of the lines... the lines seem to be getting better right now, maybe public opinion is diverging more from the state of things in the nfl and vegas looks to profit. Two are a must:
buf + 2.5 @ mia - The only explanation for this line is Miami winning two games against bad teams and buffalo losing two games against good teams, and the public having a short term memory so Vegas thinks they'll trap people on the Miami side. I think they're right. This line will move to +3, and I'll snatch it up. No way Miami can beat a good team, no way in hell they beat 'em by over 3, lock of the week.
dal - 7.5 @ was - Gotta like Murray against washington's run defense, I think Dallas is starting to get it together all-around, and I've gotta like their D against Washington's O. I admit I'm worried the rookie rb Helu has talent in WAS, he ran well against sf and mia, but thankfully didn't get many carries.
I'm hopeful that people will want the huge home dog (even though this line doesn't fit the beating WAS is due for next week), but it will probably move away from us. Will keep fingers crossed for big -7, but it will still prolly be a best bet at -7.5.
I worry slightly every week that WAS will adjust, but that doesn't keep me from picking against them. I'm probably going to keep picking against washington, miami, indy, etc. I especially like, as a formula, good team @ really bad team, because while home field may be huge in most NFL games, mismatches are still mismatches. And I don't think they make the 6pt difference in those cases (i.e. I like dal -7.5 @ was better than I'd like dal -10.5 in london or dal -13.5 in dal ---it's 3 to neutral, 3 to home, I believe).
Other lines that stood out -
-cin +7 @ bal - if I can get that at 7.5, I like cinci to shut down bal's offense enough to not get massacred.
-NE - 12 v KC - home team, monday night, patriots being patriots, I like them to run up the score and not just win. Especially like this if matt cassell injured.
-JAX + CLE < 36.5 - I've been liking bad offenses and the under lately, they just seem so damn reliable. I got 2 last week, and considered the cle/stl one, but unfortunately missed out.
We'll see how the research bears those out though.
What lines are you looking at? Or who's gonna beat who?
p.s. random week 10 thoughts-
-fred jackson can't block for shit. maybe he just trying to sell play fakes too much, but seemed like every time I looked up he was missing blocks
-atl may be a good under candidate. they ate up 10 minutes of clock time on that first drive, seem to pass a bit to the middle of the field, and mostly march steadily. they may get overvalued. but idk, maybe i just got burned by them 2 weeks in a row...
-sf gettin it done w/o gore. i worried smith would have a good day against the giants, an he did. here's why, and where he will in the future - that nyg pass rush, so great against brady, not so great against sf's little dump passes. look for smith to actually be good against teams who blitz well.
-was worried about homecookin @ met life cause of the past.. too busy hoping my lock to come through, but the pats did have a lot of penalties, and my dad said he saw some no-calls favoring nyj. still going to factor that into decisions played by the jets there, and maybe see if same case w giants.
-lot of jets turnovers in that game. their offense is good for 24, but against pats they knew they needed more and overextended... they may give it up more against high-scoring teams.. although the pats have a great takeaway rate, so that's got to be a lot of it too.
edit: note to self book totals 980 -540 -640 500 -930
Sunday, November 13, 2011
3rd parlay
is jax -3 and the under. said why i like spread, jax's defensive stats pretty damn good this year, and they haven't had it super easy. addai prolly still out, hard to see colts getting pts without him, history shows they haven't. jags averaging 12.5 or so so i really like the under (though they'll get more gainst colts run d, but thats why i like 'em spread).
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Week 10
Aight, 2-2 best bets week 9. Lock came through, so I'm in the black. Still feel a little bad about it, because I feel like the lines were weak last week. Had a bad break though. Baltimore going 92 yards on the last drive isn't something I could have called, and I'm really upset that Pitt blitzed 3+ times instead of just dropping into coverage and letting Flaco through a pick or throw to the middle of the field and lose time that way. Gotta fess up that picking KC over miami was a big mistake, it's apparent now that KC are pretenders (I mean, yes, they won 4 in a row, but look at who those wins were over). I figured being on top of the AFC west would make them buckle down, but they didn't react to the pressure like I thought they would. Guess that type of thing a possible let-down spot for the future, but prolly depends on character of the team.
SO. Here are week 10 bets. I'll remind you I'm doing well in best bets and not so much elsewhere (although doing decently diverse money line considering). I recommend you take best bets under advisement and the rest with a grain of salt, as you make your own decisions.
All books 4k bankroll.
Book 1: best ats/total(+500)
400 NE +1 @ nyj
200 hou -3 @ tb
200 atl/no > 50
Book 2: diverse ats/total (-1010)
200 ne +1
200 hou -3
200 atl/no > 50
200 sf/nyg > 42.5
100 mia/was < 38ish (check?)
100 buf + 6 (@ dal)
100 jax -3 (@ ind)
Book 3: best money line (-640)
Dunno yet, possibly philly, but I think it's like 900. Actually probably off this week
Book 4: diverse money line (+450)
Probably off this week
Book 5: parlays ( -1770)
Giants + 3.5 + sf/nyg > 42.5
Pats + 2 + ne/nyj > 47
And Jax -3 + jax/ind < 37 or 38 or whatever it was
Alright. Lets talk best bets. I took NE as my best bet, but I actually think Hou is the better candidate, so Hou as lock - the way this team has been playing, even without andre johnson, speaks for itself. Their defense has really stepped it up. Granted they've been against weaker teams lately, but they're really coming on and showing they've got it offensively and defensively, really well rounded. Tampa Bay I'm not exactly sure who I'm going to get each week, they don't seem to have the drive to win. That said, they do have a consistently solid defense, and play tough beat-em-up football. But I think Houston's offense, the way it's been playing lately, will be able to score points on them. They're too well-rounded. TB's offense is a real worry, they are passing fair, it seems, but manage to fail to put up over 25 points in almost every game (maybe every?). They don't seem able to score that much, they're almost invariably below average on points and that's not going to get the job done here.
NE over the jets in almost a pick'em - You know, I mean you're going to expect this, but the pats losing three in a row is almost unheard of. That's the main reason. It's true they're a lot weaker this year, though. But the jets haven't really been showing me that much offensively, their main claim to fame even in their wins has been their defense. They manage to play tight football, not give up turnovers, and that's enough for their average offense to overcome. But I think Brady and co. come out for blood this week, and are able to overcome the jets defense and win. I have to like the patriots GETTING points, in almost any game. Their suspect defense might allow the jets more here than they have been getting, but there are just fundamental problems in the jets offense that seem to prevent them from putting up more than 25 points.
Also, perhaps the biggest motivator to take this bet is that the jets don't have the pass rush necessary to succeed against brady. Dallas, NYG, and Pitt make up 3 of the 4 teams who've beaten the pats against the spread (off the top of my head, other one being buffalo, who arguably fits nyj defensively with strong cornerbacks, but I think is better against the pats due to their greater propensity for pickoffs - which they demonstrated in their win). They all are in top 25% pass rushers, dallas/nyg among the top 5 most likely. NYJ I think is 18th or so in sacks.
A couple worries - the pats won handly game 1, the idea that the loser will cover game 2 seems to favor the jets. I think I heard a stat about the jets doing really well against ne @ home past couple years. Lastly, it seems we've seen some home cooking in new york in the chargers and dolphins game. I think the refs actually do give the jets a couple calls a week, and I'm not going to go into the calls that have been made here, but I do worry that that might influence this game. Ultimately, though, I look for Brady and co. to reestablish their offense and snap their small and unheard of losing streak.
Atl/no > 50 - there's not a lot to say here. Two good offenses. Julio Jones looked amazing last week, the falcons really coming on, and I look for michael turner to run over that suspect saints run d. The saints always put up points, and this game is too close to call on the spread, but it is that way because I expect fireworks. Fifty is a large number, but I think it will be covered.
diverse. nyg/sf > 42.5 - Just seems like a low number. Yes, you can say there are two good defenses. More pertinently, you could say that san francisco is at least top 3 red zone defenses in the league (haven't kept up w/ exact numbers). But the giants have a tendency to give up points and score points, and I look for that to be a major factor here. Yes, they are healthy and held the pats down, but I think that's due to the pass rush being a primary focus of nyg's d. It shouldn't do as much here against the short passes that Alex Smith favors. This is a good matchup for SF's offense for that reason. NYG has a good matchup against SF because Eli has moved up into the elite in qbs this year and he's done it by getting the job done in the red zone. If anyone can overcome SF's iron curtain, it seems to be Eli. Also, though SF hasn't allowed a rushing td this year, they face brandon jacobs, who I'm calling will power through and snap that streak. With all the intensity in this matchup, it being called game of the week, and the giants need to win as much as they can to maintain position as they go into what many are calling the toughest remaining schedule in the league, I expect it to tend towards a shootout. I could see, at the low end of the spectrum, a 21-17 win for one team, but I think it much more likely both sides score at least 21. I don't really see either team winning in a blowout, either.
mia/was < 38 - Two horrible offenses against two solid defenses. I think teams do tend to adjust to injuries, so in some senseWashington's due to get it together and recover from their injuries, but I think even if they start to recover I only see WAS getting 20 here. And their injuries are as bad as they come.
The dolphins offense which has been struggling all year shouldn't do particularly well against washington. I tend to favor them to win ats, but with their abyssmal home record I'm not so sure. This should be a defensive battle, and under 38.
buf + 6 @ dal - Lot to be said here. 1) dallas has played close games against good teams. 2) lot of dallas fans, vegas tends to make the lines with that in mind, so I think they're overvalued here. 3) Unless dallas goes into the half with a ten point lead, I think romo will choke under pressure against that buffalo secondary and throw picks. Um. Could say more. Murray has been running well, that's a substantial worry. Balance of injuries favors Buffalo, with Austin out and a couple defensive starters, though buffalo's missing a few. Fitzpatrick more reliable than Romo. Dallas does well in november, that's a substantial worry, they're due to come on, and with NYG facing the schedule they are still have a shot at the division. Probably more to be said, but I think ultimately 6 is too many points to be giving to a good team like Buffalo.
jax + 3 @ ind - 2 major considerations. 1) the importance of indy's weak run defense against the phenomenal maurice jones-drew cannot be understated. 2) indy put up 17 pretty consistently earlier in the season, but not so much since addai has been out, and he looks to be out this week. Could break it down further, could say jacksonville's defense is better than atlanta's d, and indy put up exactly ZERO points on offense against atlanta (they got a pick 6, or a pick in really good field position.. think pick 6 though)... just the way they've been playing. Jax's weak offense is a concern, but I dunno. Um. Clark out. That's noice. Yeah. We'll just leave it at that.
Parlays - giants - already said why I liked the over. A lot of reasoning there probably carries over to why I like the giants +3.5, but I'll emphasize that SF's big thing has been their red zone d, and I just like eli to get it done more than others have in the past. Jacobs, too, seems well-suited to muscle in for their first red zone running TD (sf's defense, that is). I really like the half point here, with two good teams with playoff aspirations, I like knowing that the niners could win by 3 and I could profit.
Parlays - pats/jets - already said why I liked the spread bet. I think the total has come down because ne hasn't produced the past couple weeks, but I think that's largely due to the pass rush of the teams they have been facing. I think they'll get back on track here, and do more than their fair share to send this over. Also, with the pats weak defense, seems like the jets can put up a few points here.
SO. Here are week 10 bets. I'll remind you I'm doing well in best bets and not so much elsewhere (although doing decently diverse money line considering). I recommend you take best bets under advisement and the rest with a grain of salt, as you make your own decisions.
All books 4k bankroll.
Book 1: best ats/total(+500)
400 NE +1 @ nyj
200 hou -3 @ tb
200 atl/no > 50
Book 2: diverse ats/total (-1010)
200 ne +1
200 hou -3
200 atl/no > 50
200 sf/nyg > 42.5
100 mia/was < 38ish (check?)
100 buf + 6 (@ dal)
100 jax -3 (@ ind)
Book 3: best money line (-640)
Dunno yet, possibly philly, but I think it's like 900. Actually probably off this week
Book 4: diverse money line (+450)
Probably off this week
Book 5: parlays ( -1770)
Giants + 3.5 + sf/nyg > 42.5
Pats + 2 + ne/nyj > 47
And Jax -3 + jax/ind < 37 or 38 or whatever it was
Alright. Lets talk best bets. I took NE as my best bet, but I actually think Hou is the better candidate, so Hou as lock - the way this team has been playing, even without andre johnson, speaks for itself. Their defense has really stepped it up. Granted they've been against weaker teams lately, but they're really coming on and showing they've got it offensively and defensively, really well rounded. Tampa Bay I'm not exactly sure who I'm going to get each week, they don't seem to have the drive to win. That said, they do have a consistently solid defense, and play tough beat-em-up football. But I think Houston's offense, the way it's been playing lately, will be able to score points on them. They're too well-rounded. TB's offense is a real worry, they are passing fair, it seems, but manage to fail to put up over 25 points in almost every game (maybe every?). They don't seem able to score that much, they're almost invariably below average on points and that's not going to get the job done here.
NE over the jets in almost a pick'em - You know, I mean you're going to expect this, but the pats losing three in a row is almost unheard of. That's the main reason. It's true they're a lot weaker this year, though. But the jets haven't really been showing me that much offensively, their main claim to fame even in their wins has been their defense. They manage to play tight football, not give up turnovers, and that's enough for their average offense to overcome. But I think Brady and co. come out for blood this week, and are able to overcome the jets defense and win. I have to like the patriots GETTING points, in almost any game. Their suspect defense might allow the jets more here than they have been getting, but there are just fundamental problems in the jets offense that seem to prevent them from putting up more than 25 points.
Also, perhaps the biggest motivator to take this bet is that the jets don't have the pass rush necessary to succeed against brady. Dallas, NYG, and Pitt make up 3 of the 4 teams who've beaten the pats against the spread (off the top of my head, other one being buffalo, who arguably fits nyj defensively with strong cornerbacks, but I think is better against the pats due to their greater propensity for pickoffs - which they demonstrated in their win). They all are in top 25% pass rushers, dallas/nyg among the top 5 most likely. NYJ I think is 18th or so in sacks.
A couple worries - the pats won handly game 1, the idea that the loser will cover game 2 seems to favor the jets. I think I heard a stat about the jets doing really well against ne @ home past couple years. Lastly, it seems we've seen some home cooking in new york in the chargers and dolphins game. I think the refs actually do give the jets a couple calls a week, and I'm not going to go into the calls that have been made here, but I do worry that that might influence this game. Ultimately, though, I look for Brady and co. to reestablish their offense and snap their small and unheard of losing streak.
Atl/no > 50 - there's not a lot to say here. Two good offenses. Julio Jones looked amazing last week, the falcons really coming on, and I look for michael turner to run over that suspect saints run d. The saints always put up points, and this game is too close to call on the spread, but it is that way because I expect fireworks. Fifty is a large number, but I think it will be covered.
diverse. nyg/sf > 42.5 - Just seems like a low number. Yes, you can say there are two good defenses. More pertinently, you could say that san francisco is at least top 3 red zone defenses in the league (haven't kept up w/ exact numbers). But the giants have a tendency to give up points and score points, and I look for that to be a major factor here. Yes, they are healthy and held the pats down, but I think that's due to the pass rush being a primary focus of nyg's d. It shouldn't do as much here against the short passes that Alex Smith favors. This is a good matchup for SF's offense for that reason. NYG has a good matchup against SF because Eli has moved up into the elite in qbs this year and he's done it by getting the job done in the red zone. If anyone can overcome SF's iron curtain, it seems to be Eli. Also, though SF hasn't allowed a rushing td this year, they face brandon jacobs, who I'm calling will power through and snap that streak. With all the intensity in this matchup, it being called game of the week, and the giants need to win as much as they can to maintain position as they go into what many are calling the toughest remaining schedule in the league, I expect it to tend towards a shootout. I could see, at the low end of the spectrum, a 21-17 win for one team, but I think it much more likely both sides score at least 21. I don't really see either team winning in a blowout, either.
mia/was < 38 - Two horrible offenses against two solid defenses. I think teams do tend to adjust to injuries, so in some senseWashington's due to get it together and recover from their injuries, but I think even if they start to recover I only see WAS getting 20 here. And their injuries are as bad as they come.
The dolphins offense which has been struggling all year shouldn't do particularly well against washington. I tend to favor them to win ats, but with their abyssmal home record I'm not so sure. This should be a defensive battle, and under 38.
buf + 6 @ dal - Lot to be said here. 1) dallas has played close games against good teams. 2) lot of dallas fans, vegas tends to make the lines with that in mind, so I think they're overvalued here. 3) Unless dallas goes into the half with a ten point lead, I think romo will choke under pressure against that buffalo secondary and throw picks. Um. Could say more. Murray has been running well, that's a substantial worry. Balance of injuries favors Buffalo, with Austin out and a couple defensive starters, though buffalo's missing a few. Fitzpatrick more reliable than Romo. Dallas does well in november, that's a substantial worry, they're due to come on, and with NYG facing the schedule they are still have a shot at the division. Probably more to be said, but I think ultimately 6 is too many points to be giving to a good team like Buffalo.
jax + 3 @ ind - 2 major considerations. 1) the importance of indy's weak run defense against the phenomenal maurice jones-drew cannot be understated. 2) indy put up 17 pretty consistently earlier in the season, but not so much since addai has been out, and he looks to be out this week. Could break it down further, could say jacksonville's defense is better than atlanta's d, and indy put up exactly ZERO points on offense against atlanta (they got a pick 6, or a pick in really good field position.. think pick 6 though)... just the way they've been playing. Jax's weak offense is a concern, but I dunno. Um. Clark out. That's noice. Yeah. We'll just leave it at that.
Parlays - giants - already said why I liked the over. A lot of reasoning there probably carries over to why I like the giants +3.5, but I'll emphasize that SF's big thing has been their red zone d, and I just like eli to get it done more than others have in the past. Jacobs, too, seems well-suited to muscle in for their first red zone running TD (sf's defense, that is). I really like the half point here, with two good teams with playoff aspirations, I like knowing that the niners could win by 3 and I could profit.
Parlays - pats/jets - already said why I liked the spread bet. I think the total has come down because ne hasn't produced the past couple weeks, but I think that's largely due to the pass rush of the teams they have been facing. I think they'll get back on track here, and do more than their fair share to send this over. Also, with the pats weak defense, seems like the jets can put up a few points here.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Week 9
Aight, here's my books week 9. Week 8, worst week yet. Bleh. Felt the strongest about it, ironically.
I'll say this here and prolly at the start of every post, the only bets you should listen to my advice on at all (historically speaking) are the top bets (book 1), which I talk about here: (youtube link). And I should also add, the judgment you ultimately follow should be your own. Take me as a sounding board, just putting some ideas out there. Anyway, despite my failure pretty much everywhere aside from top bets, I'll post all the bets I'm looking at, and the reasoning, on the odd chance it's useful to others or I become good enough to comfortably bet these categories I'm weaker in some time in the future.
All books based on 4k bankroll
Book 1: Best ATS +340 (down 260 wk8)
400 sf -3.5 @ was
200 pit -3 v bal
200 gb -5 @ sd
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia
Book 2: Diverse spread -1060 (-590)
200 sf -3.5 @ was
200 pit -3 v bal
200 gb -5 @ sd
200 kc -4ish v mia
100 atl -7 @ ind
100 nyj + buf > 44
100 chi + phi > 47
Book 3: Best Moneyline -940 (+300)
525 SF (to win 300)
Book 4: Diverse Moneyline +50 (-450)
350 SF (200)
245 GB (100)
330 ATL (100)
Book 5: Parlays -1170 (-600)
200 ATL + 7 and atl/ind > 44
200 buf + 1.5 and buf/nyj > 44
Edit: 3rd is 200 nyg + 9 and nyg/nep > 51
Might add a couple bets as we see on a couple injuries, of course. If both Kolb and Wells are out, I'll have to take STL to cover in Arizona, I think.
As my bets are - as always - very incestuous, I'll just cover a few and the reasoning there, together with the youtube video, should explain the similar bets in other books.
ATL - 7 - they're comin off the bye, and have been playing much better. Gotta think Michael Turner will run all over that weak indy run d. Indy can't be too happy to be 0-8, might be demoralized. I would almost say this is a top bet, but indy should be getting addai back to become less 1-dimensional, and atlanta's secondary has been suspect most of the season as well. I don't think Curtis painter is as bad as people make him out to be, too (though he is bad) - indy was putting up 17 points pretty consistently for a while, and I could readily see them getting 20 here against the weak secondary. But they shouldn't be able to hold atlanta under 27. Should not. But we'll see.
nyj + buf > 44 - not a whole lot of specific reasoning here. Buffalo puts up a decent amount of points, generally. That should continue, I don't really believe in the Jets' run defense to stop Fred Jackson. One might worry that with the jets lacking a strong run game, buffalo's strong secondary could pick off the jets at the wrong time and waste a lot of clock time. But they might just as easily get picks in good field position. Who knows, maybe you get a pick six. The jets are about due to start playing well - they manage to get to the playoffs fairly frequently, so they might do their share to put this one over.
chi + phi > 47 - This number seems rather low considering how many points philly tends to put up and give away. Chicago's been coming on strong lately on offense themselves, and I'm not sure how well that aging defense can keep up with philly's speed. I think there's a few breakaways on both sides here. Add in one teaspoon devin hester kick returns, stir, serve high scoring. Oh I should also note that philly was either running the hurryup or just quick in the huddle on monday, which should extend the clock here as well. I was skipping through between plays and had to keep backing up.
nyg + 9/NE + nyg > 51 - Giants play down and up to the level of their opponents, so I think they could keep this close, even in foxborough. Even though pats rarely lose back-to-back. Could see this being a close loss in a high scoring game for nyg. Concerned that bradshaw may not play, and jacobs has been shit, but I'm holding hope NE's defense keeps ny in this one. What I really like about this parlay is the correlation - the steelers may have held the pats under 20, but that's a rarity. So if nyg does beat the spread, its got to be in a high scoring game. I think if you take the giants side here, you gotta like the over. So even if the likelihood is 60/40 that NE covers, if the likelihood is 75% that when nyg covers, its >51, this is a good (30% chance) parlay. The numbers are prolly not so severe, but you get the point.
I'll say this here and prolly at the start of every post, the only bets you should listen to my advice on at all (historically speaking) are the top bets (book 1), which I talk about here: (youtube link). And I should also add, the judgment you ultimately follow should be your own. Take me as a sounding board, just putting some ideas out there. Anyway, despite my failure pretty much everywhere aside from top bets, I'll post all the bets I'm looking at, and the reasoning, on the odd chance it's useful to others or I become good enough to comfortably bet these categories I'm weaker in some time in the future.
All books based on 4k bankroll
Book 1: Best ATS +340 (down 260 wk8)
400 sf -3.5 @ was
200 pit -3 v bal
200 gb -5 @ sd
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia
Book 2: Diverse spread -1060 (-590)
200 sf -3.5 @ was
200 pit -3 v bal
200 gb -5 @ sd
200 kc -4ish v mia
100 atl -7 @ ind
100 nyj + buf > 44
100 chi + phi > 47
Book 3: Best Moneyline -940 (+300)
525 SF (to win 300)
Book 4: Diverse Moneyline +50 (-450)
350 SF (200)
245 GB (100)
330 ATL (100)
Book 5: Parlays -1170 (-600)
200 ATL + 7 and atl/ind > 44
200 buf + 1.5 and buf/nyj > 44
Edit: 3rd is 200 nyg + 9 and nyg/nep > 51
Might add a couple bets as we see on a couple injuries, of course. If both Kolb and Wells are out, I'll have to take STL to cover in Arizona, I think.
As my bets are - as always - very incestuous, I'll just cover a few and the reasoning there, together with the youtube video, should explain the similar bets in other books.
ATL - 7 - they're comin off the bye, and have been playing much better. Gotta think Michael Turner will run all over that weak indy run d. Indy can't be too happy to be 0-8, might be demoralized. I would almost say this is a top bet, but indy should be getting addai back to become less 1-dimensional, and atlanta's secondary has been suspect most of the season as well. I don't think Curtis painter is as bad as people make him out to be, too (though he is bad) - indy was putting up 17 points pretty consistently for a while, and I could readily see them getting 20 here against the weak secondary. But they shouldn't be able to hold atlanta under 27. Should not. But we'll see.
nyj + buf > 44 - not a whole lot of specific reasoning here. Buffalo puts up a decent amount of points, generally. That should continue, I don't really believe in the Jets' run defense to stop Fred Jackson. One might worry that with the jets lacking a strong run game, buffalo's strong secondary could pick off the jets at the wrong time and waste a lot of clock time. But they might just as easily get picks in good field position. Who knows, maybe you get a pick six. The jets are about due to start playing well - they manage to get to the playoffs fairly frequently, so they might do their share to put this one over.
chi + phi > 47 - This number seems rather low considering how many points philly tends to put up and give away. Chicago's been coming on strong lately on offense themselves, and I'm not sure how well that aging defense can keep up with philly's speed. I think there's a few breakaways on both sides here. Add in one teaspoon devin hester kick returns, stir, serve high scoring. Oh I should also note that philly was either running the hurryup or just quick in the huddle on monday, which should extend the clock here as well. I was skipping through between plays and had to keep backing up.
nyg + 9/NE + nyg > 51 - Giants play down and up to the level of their opponents, so I think they could keep this close, even in foxborough. Even though pats rarely lose back-to-back. Could see this being a close loss in a high scoring game for nyg. Concerned that bradshaw may not play, and jacobs has been shit, but I'm holding hope NE's defense keeps ny in this one. What I really like about this parlay is the correlation - the steelers may have held the pats under 20, but that's a rarity. So if nyg does beat the spread, its got to be in a high scoring game. I think if you take the giants side here, you gotta like the over. So even if the likelihood is 60/40 that NE covers, if the likelihood is 75% that when nyg covers, its >51, this is a good (30% chance) parlay. The numbers are prolly not so severe, but you get the point.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)