Week 10 went great, 2-1 best bets, actually 3-1 on the other single bets (weird that those did better this week), 2-1 on 2-play parlays. Maybe best week yet.
And I'm lookin forward to week 11. I liked a lot of the lines... the lines seem to be getting better right now, maybe public opinion is diverging more from the state of things in the nfl and vegas looks to profit. Two are a must:
buf + 2.5 @ mia - The only explanation for this line is Miami winning two games against bad teams and buffalo losing two games against good teams, and the public having a short term memory so Vegas thinks they'll trap people on the Miami side. I think they're right. This line will move to +3, and I'll snatch it up. No way Miami can beat a good team, no way in hell they beat 'em by over 3, lock of the week.
dal - 7.5 @ was - Gotta like Murray against washington's run defense, I think Dallas is starting to get it together all-around, and I've gotta like their D against Washington's O. I admit I'm worried the rookie rb Helu has talent in WAS, he ran well against sf and mia, but thankfully didn't get many carries.
I'm hopeful that people will want the huge home dog (even though this line doesn't fit the beating WAS is due for next week), but it will probably move away from us. Will keep fingers crossed for big -7, but it will still prolly be a best bet at -7.5.
I worry slightly every week that WAS will adjust, but that doesn't keep me from picking against them. I'm probably going to keep picking against washington, miami, indy, etc. I especially like, as a formula, good team @ really bad team, because while home field may be huge in most NFL games, mismatches are still mismatches. And I don't think they make the 6pt difference in those cases (i.e. I like dal -7.5 @ was better than I'd like dal -10.5 in london or dal -13.5 in dal ---it's 3 to neutral, 3 to home, I believe).
Other lines that stood out -
-cin +7 @ bal - if I can get that at 7.5, I like cinci to shut down bal's offense enough to not get massacred.
-NE - 12 v KC - home team, monday night, patriots being patriots, I like them to run up the score and not just win. Especially like this if matt cassell injured.
-JAX + CLE < 36.5 - I've been liking bad offenses and the under lately, they just seem so damn reliable. I got 2 last week, and considered the cle/stl one, but unfortunately missed out.
We'll see how the research bears those out though.
What lines are you looking at? Or who's gonna beat who?
p.s. random week 10 thoughts-
-fred jackson can't block for shit. maybe he just trying to sell play fakes too much, but seemed like every time I looked up he was missing blocks
-atl may be a good under candidate. they ate up 10 minutes of clock time on that first drive, seem to pass a bit to the middle of the field, and mostly march steadily. they may get overvalued. but idk, maybe i just got burned by them 2 weeks in a row...
-sf gettin it done w/o gore. i worried smith would have a good day against the giants, an he did. here's why, and where he will in the future - that nyg pass rush, so great against brady, not so great against sf's little dump passes. look for smith to actually be good against teams who blitz well.
-was worried about homecookin @ met life cause of the past.. too busy hoping my lock to come through, but the pats did have a lot of penalties, and my dad said he saw some no-calls favoring nyj. still going to factor that into decisions played by the jets there, and maybe see if same case w giants.
-lot of jets turnovers in that game. their offense is good for 24, but against pats they knew they needed more and overextended... they may give it up more against high-scoring teams.. although the pats have a great takeaway rate, so that's got to be a lot of it too.
edit: note to self book totals 980 -540 -640 500 -930
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