Tough week last week - the very toughest I've had. Probably a much needed dose of humility and hopefully helps me get my act together and finish strong this year and be scrupulous in my plays as I start to bet money on these games next year.
For the thanksgiving games, I see the very best play as the over in the GB/DET game. The number's 55.5, 56 some places, and it might seem scary if it weren't for the two teams playing in this game. As I see it, this is the game where, if you'd ask me 5 weeks ago to predict the highest scoring game, I would have had to call this it. It just LOOKS like a shootout. And even more so now that gb's probably without their starting RB starks. And there are a few defensive injuries for detroit. And I really like that it's in a dome, that's always good for offenses. I like that the weaker team Det is the home team, I'm hoping that gives them confidence enough to score. GB will be facing a tough detroit defense, but they've been unstoppable offensively this far, and are looking forward to this test (from what I've heard). Detroit should profit from facing the 31st pass defense in the league, and even though GB will get some picks like they always do - that could as easily help the over as hurt it. So we said all along this would be a shootout, and the only things that have changed incline us to think even more that this will be a shootout.
2 others bets I considered but think are weaker --- The first is a 6.5 pt teaser - dallas -.5 and san fran +10. Don't really see baltimore blowing out anyone with a decent offense, they only did pitt in the season opener, with 7 turnovers. There are some starters injured for BAL defensively, and I think san fran is still not getting the credit they deserve, so this may be a statement game for them - they may win. I think with the thanksgiving energy, both teams will play well so its harder still to see blowout here. Dallas -1 - teams miami has beaten last 3 games have been weaker competition, and I know I said that when I took buffalo as my best bet last week, but even miami players saying buffalo "laid down" for them. Dallas won't, and Romo should hit quite well against that miami secondary. However, it is a concern that tony fiametta - the fullback who's been blocking well for dallas - is out again this week. When I read about his being out last week, I was scared my play on dallas wouldn't cover and it didn't - Murray got only 50 yards, his lowest as a pro. So between fiametta's absence and miami's good run d, dallas will be pretty 1-dimensional this week, I don't think they're a good play at -7. But I really like them to get it done in a pickem, at home. They're just better than Miami's beaten.
3rd bet worth considering to me is actually the over in the sf/bal game. Baltimore's lowest score at home this year is 29, and 4 of the 5 games they've played in baltimore have been against excellent defenses - pitt, cinci, hou, and one other good d team I don't remember offhand (5th is arizona). Also, they need every game in that tough division, so they should be coming out every drive to score. And so should san fran, who as I said, hasn't been getting credit. Also there are the sibling rivalry and thanksgiving energies going around, I think this will be more explosive than you would imagine with two top-ranked defenses. And I think this line is undervalued because these are both widely recognized "defense teams," and a fact that might be under the radar is that they're both tied for 7th in points scored (25.6 a game). Oh, a postscript - as I said, san fran had a good day in the air against the giants, and I think they will against teams who have solid pass rushes, because Smith favors short, quick passes so good pass rushes aren't quite as scary to them. And BAL is near the top there as well.
That's it for thanksgiving.
Hou -3 @ jax - I don't think matt schaub's injury will have the impact this number suggests. They are a balanced offense, and have only been passing something like 25-30 times a game (not sure average or anything, but many games have been under 30 passes). And IDK - matt leinart had talent in college, he's been here in houston waiting for his shot, probably more humble than he was when he came in as a rookie after getting beat out for the top spot in arizona. Houston staff say he's put in the effort there. Enough about Leinart. Johnson should be back this week, good news good news. This team stronger in pretty much every dimension than jacksonville, when you think about it. Just playing too well lately, everyone said they'd drop off when they lost mario williams, when andre johnson went out, but they haven't. Well, now they're down schaub, but johnson's back, and I think they stay strong against a Blaine Gabbert-lead JAX.
I'm going to be watching the line in the pitt-kc game. It might drop down now that KC has orton and not palko, but it shouldn't - because this will be orton's first start with kc, and new qbs generally do poorly as they get acclimated. I want to tease this down, if the line moves and/or I do a larger teaser 6.5/7, I may be able to get this at pitt -3, which I feel is as near a sure thing as you can get in the nfl. Another large favorite I want to tease towards pickem is Atlanta at home against a Peterson-less Minnesota. Atlanta always good at home, min should be pretty 1-dimensional and easy to stop. I like them to cover the 9 too, but I really like these two games teased together.
I hadn't messed with teasers before but I saw one of the guys on youtube who's 70+% ATS this year favors them, They seem powerful when you can tease over key numbers and in the right situations (like he got cleveland +9 against saint louis, or vice versa... neither of those teams is beating anyone by 9... and he got ne - 7.5 against the jets, no way the JETS woulda beat the PATS by more than a touchdown). Probably something of a sucker bet because you need two games to not be blowouts in the wrong way, and this is after all the Never Figure League, but I want to mess with them.
Watching a few things with injuries, most significantly - if Addai will be out again this week, I really like both Car -3 and indy < 20.5. Carolina's D is suspect, but Indy's offense has been terrible without addai, before that they were good for 17ish it seemed to me.
As it stands:
Book 1: Best bets
400 Unpicked, poss. some version of ATL -3 v MIN/PIT -3ish v KC teased
200 Hou - 3 @ jax
200 GB/DET > 55.5
Book 2: Diverse spread
Same 3 as book 1, @ 200 each
100 sf/bal > 39
100 dal -.5 v mia teased with sf + 10 @ bal
Book 6: Actual (What I would actually put money on)
Same as book 1 for now.
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