Week 11 books

Here we are. Best bets doing the best, what I most think worth consideration. Find the reasoning for those here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvz5Mg4Lua4. Here's the books, all books based 4k bankroll -


Book 1: Best spread (+880)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia
200 ne -14.5 v kc
200 dal -7.5 @ was
200 nyj -4.5 @ den

Book 2: diverse spread (-540)
200 buf +2.5
200 ne -14.5
200 dal -7.5
200 nyj -4.5
100 cle/jax <35
100 nyg -3
EDIT 100 chi -3.5

Book 3: best money (-640)
EDIT: 1020 DAL (300)
Book 4: diverse money (+500)
EDIT: Yep, definitely off again this week - sad day.

Book 5: parlays (-930)
jax -1 + jax/cle < 35
ari +10 + ari/sf  > 41.5
nyj -5.5 + nyj/den < 41

giants pick - Jeremy Maclin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out for this game. Vick with two broken ribs probably won't want to play against the giants pass rush, there's no one worse to face in that situation. If he does play, he should be hesitant to run. I'm not so sure it's a good thing, because the eagles are 2-0 when McCoy gets 25+ carries, 1-6 (win to rams early) when he gets less. I worry that if Young starts, they'll run it like they should. But that number not necessarily reflective, because it's a question of chicken and egg. Do they win because he gets carries or does he get carries because they're winning? I think a little bit of both. So it's a concern, but my dad pointed out Young has been horrible lately, so I figure the giants are better off on balance for Vick's injury. Have to like their pass rush to get in on young some and shake up that performance even more.
The giants really need this game, with the cowboys' weak schedule they need to stay on top and bounce back from that SF loss. The eagles are pretty much playing for pride at this point, they'd have to win out to have a shot at the division, and they've got a couple of tough out of division games. Manning seems to have a pretty solid killer instinct this year, playing really well in the 4th quarter.  Bradshaw didn't practice today, which is unfortunate, it would be icing to have him back and the run game going. All in all, though, I have to like them getting just 3 points at home here, as that makes it a pick 'em minus homefield advantage and they are the better team.

jax -1 + jax/cle < 35 - cleveland's got a good d, but not against the run - I think they're 29th or 30th, so jones-drew should have a good day. Hardesty didn't practice today, so maybe cleveland will be without a decent running back again. Even if he plays, w/ a hamstring he won't be 100%. With the ineptitude of these two offenses and efficiency of their defenses, the under just jumps out at you - and that's why it's moved down from 37.5 - 34 (in some places). That's about all there is to say about the under. I think the jags' d is better than cleveland's in total, since jacksonville's faced a tougher schedule and consistently held teams under their averages, and with jacksonville having the best offensive player on the field, I tend to like the spread.
         Now, prolly my favorite part of this parlay is the correlation. Jacksonville's season high this year is 20 points, so I feel like if they win it, it stays under 35. If Cleveland is to win they'd have to stop jones-drew enough, and it's more likely to be something like 20-17 cleveland with cleveland putting up the best offensive showing they've had lately. So I feel like I'm getting two bets for one, I'll be very surprised if Jax wins and it goes over. Jones-Drew would have to have a record day, not just a good or great one.

ari + 10 + ari/sf > 41.5- Speaking of good correlation. Arizona has been mid-20s in the league in every stat defensively, so I don't see them as able to stop San Fran. Hell, they gave baltimore 30 points, and minnesota under mcnabb 34, and the rest of the games on their schedule aren't exactly high-powered offenses either that are putting up these stats against their defense. So if arizona stays within ten they'll have to score points.
   But why want to take arizona + 10 anyway? SF is great ATS this year (maybe perfect). Well, SF is great ATS because they haven't been getting recognized, but the lines are starting to reflect their talents here I think. And not taking into account the fact that Arizona has talent as a team and has been coming on lately. They've underperformed this season but are picking it up. They can put up some points. The biggest reason I like them here is because SF's defense may be amazing, but they are 26th against the pass. And so I have to like Fitzgerald to show up big here.

jets -5.5 + den/nyj <41 - I say why I like the jets side in the video. The under - the jets are good for 24 a game +/- 3 and they are slotted for 23.5 here. Their offense is weak but they generally have a good turnover margin and are very consistently in that range. If they come out and have a good game (27), the broncos need to score more than 14 to push this over. It's possible, with Tebow craziness in the fourth quarter, but I think that jets D is just too solid. Ryan has a chapter on dealing with the option in his book on defense. Short week is tough for the jets with this unconvential denver offense, but I still just like their D - when denver faced its first real test under tebow in the lions, they put up ten. Against the dolphins good d, they got 15 in regulation, almost all of it in the last 5 minutes (a lot of that can be chalked to the way the dolphins play in the 4th quarter). So I don't really think denver gets it done against a good d, and I think this goes under. That said, this is prolly the parlay I feel weakest about, just due to general tebow craziness. ***oh, yeah, mcgahee limited in practice today, they sounded like he was going to play earlier in the week, but now I really like this, whether or not he plays it sounds like that hamstring will be a problem**