Sunday of Week 12 went well, 3-0 best bets, 1-2 diverse bets, 1 for 1 on the money line plays. Best bets are the only ones I'd actually make, so 3 for 3 :) Going to update books, write down early lines, here, but I thought I'd mention the ones I like most at first glance before I use this as a notepad.
oakland +3 @ miami - I still don't believe miami's for real - I thought they'd cover dallas -7 but lose (took dal -.5) with the way dallas has been playing, was right on the money there, and I think oakland's a better team than dallas is playing as right now. Gotta feel like oakland gonna go beat up miami. Course they could have another 100+ yard penalty game like minnesota (and many other games), didn't see a hell of a lot against chicago so they may be due. But palmer looking better week to week, the possibility mcfadden plays, hopefully oakland will be less injured than they were against chitown too.
atl +1 @ hou - very hard for me to bet against houston, but without leinart they are going to be even more run-centric, and atlanta has the #2 run defense. May be a good matchup. I like the tease a lot - I see atlanta winning this game, so atlanta +7.5 or 8 sounds great.
gb -6.5 @ nyg - we'll see how the giants play tonight, and whether bradshaw will play, but green bay is green bay is green bay. Giants secondary strikes me as somewhat suspect, though they're tied with themselves defensively against the run/pass (20th). I have seen some games where rodgers gets sacked a lot this year and doesn't seem too phased - he's not like brady in that way, not as tempted to fade him against a good pass rush.
sd -3 @ jax - Maybe I'm still drinking the kool-aid on san diego, but there's not much good to say about jacksonville. They're still passing the ball 40+ times and running it 20- times, so until they correct that I'm tempted to fade them. I guess one thing I'd want to know is how jacksonville does against the deep ball before I bet this.
jets -3.5 @ was - maybe @ -3 because washington. Probably not though.
Two other tease plays I really like (first is atlanta): 1. cin + 14/14.5 @ pit - without polamolu, in the rematch, cincy's d against pitt's o, hard to see them losing by more than 2 touchdowns. Possibly my favorite tease as I look at it. 2. ind + 28 @ new england - 28's a hell of a lot of points. NE could very well pull a Saints on Indy, true, and they certainly are meanspirited enough at times, but indy looked a little better this week with addai back. Granted, it was against carolina's d, but they'll be playing new england's d. If I can say indy gets 17, new england would have to get 46 to cover it. I see NE getting 31-42. Worried the blowout might dispirit them and they don't get their 17, but I tend to figure they will.
Which brings me to a question. Someone said you can play totals on a team in a contest - I'll probably google this later - but if someone can tell me, is that the case? If so, since the line is 21, and the total is 48.5, there are 14 points out to Indy (48.5 - 21 = 27.5 / 2 = 13.75). I like indy to get more than 14... 17 or 20 seems a solid bet.
That's all for now, but going to use this as a notepad - this is more for me -
oak +3 @ miami
atl +1 @ hou/tease?
gb -6.5
sd -3 @ jax
(jets) (@ -3.5 now)
chi -8 v kc? run d good gainst bush
tease cin +14.5
tease ind + 28 (.5? line prolly away)
ne/ind over 48.5
chi/kc under 38?
cin/pit over 41
bal/cle under 37.5?
ind over 14
Book 1:780
Book 2:-840
Book 3: -340
Book 4: +600
Book 5: -1530
Book 6: 40
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