Week 10

Aight, 2-2 best bets week 9. Lock came through, so I'm in the black. Still feel a little bad about it, because I feel like the lines were weak last week. Had a bad break though. Baltimore going 92 yards on the last drive isn't something I could have called, and I'm really upset that Pitt blitzed 3+ times instead of just dropping into coverage and letting Flaco through a pick or throw to the middle of the field and lose time that way. Gotta fess up that picking KC over miami was a big mistake, it's apparent now that KC are pretenders (I mean, yes, they won 4 in a row, but look at who those wins were over). I figured being on top of the AFC west would make them buckle down, but they didn't react to the pressure like I thought they would. Guess that type of thing a possible let-down spot for the future, but prolly depends on character of the team.

SO. Here are week 10 bets. I'll remind you I'm doing well in best bets and not so much elsewhere (although doing decently diverse money line considering). I recommend you take best bets under advisement and the rest with a grain of salt, as you make your own decisions.

All books 4k bankroll.

Book 1: best ats/total(+500)
400 NE +1 @ nyj
200 hou -3 @ tb
200 atl/no > 50

Book 2: diverse ats/total (-1010)
200 ne +1
200 hou -3
200 atl/no > 50
200 sf/nyg > 42.5
100 mia/was < 38ish (check?)
100 buf + 6 (@ dal)
100 jax -3 (@ ind)

Book 3: best money line (-640)
Dunno yet, possibly philly, but I think it's like 900. Actually probably off this week

Book 4: diverse money line (+450)
Probably off this week

Book 5: parlays ( -1770)
Giants + 3.5 + sf/nyg > 42.5
Pats + 2 + ne/nyj > 47
And Jax -3 + jax/ind < 37 or 38 or whatever it was

Alright. Lets talk best bets. I took NE as my best bet, but I actually think Hou is the better candidate, so Hou as lock - the way this team has been playing, even without andre johnson, speaks for itself. Their defense has really stepped it up. Granted they've been against weaker teams lately, but they're really coming on and showing they've got it offensively and defensively, really well rounded. Tampa Bay I'm not exactly sure who I'm going to get each week, they don't seem to have the drive to win. That said, they do have a consistently solid defense, and  play tough beat-em-up football. But I think Houston's offense, the way it's been playing lately, will be able to score points on them. They're too well-rounded. TB's offense is a real worry, they are passing fair, it seems, but manage to fail to put up over 25 points in almost every game (maybe every?). They don't seem able to score that much, they're almost invariably below average on points and that's not going to get the job done here.

NE over the jets in almost a pick'em - You know, I mean you're going to expect this, but the pats losing three in a row is almost unheard of. That's the main reason. It's true they're a lot weaker this year, though. But the jets haven't really been showing me that much offensively, their main claim to fame even in their wins has been their defense. They manage to play tight football, not give up turnovers, and that's enough for their average offense to overcome. But I think Brady and co. come out for blood this week, and are able to overcome the jets defense and win. I have to like the patriots GETTING points, in almost any game. Their suspect defense might allow the jets more here than they have been getting, but there are just fundamental problems in the jets offense that seem to prevent them from putting up more than 25 points.
       Also, perhaps the biggest motivator to take this bet is that the jets don't have the pass rush necessary to succeed against brady. Dallas, NYG, and Pitt make up 3 of the 4 teams who've beaten the pats against the spread (off the top of my head, other one being buffalo, who arguably fits nyj defensively with strong cornerbacks, but I think is better against the pats due to their greater propensity for pickoffs - which they demonstrated in their win). They all are in top 25% pass rushers, dallas/nyg among the top 5 most likely. NYJ I think is 18th or so in sacks.
      A couple worries - the pats won handly game 1, the idea that the loser will cover game 2 seems to favor the jets. I think I heard a stat about the jets doing really well against ne @ home past couple years. Lastly, it seems we've seen some home cooking in new york in the chargers and dolphins game. I think the refs actually do give the jets a couple calls a week, and I'm not going to go into the calls that have been made here, but I do worry that that might influence this game. Ultimately, though, I look for Brady and co. to reestablish their offense and snap their small and unheard of losing streak.

Atl/no > 50 - there's not a lot to say here. Two good offenses. Julio Jones looked amazing last week, the falcons really coming on, and I look for michael turner to run over that suspect saints run d. The saints always put up points, and this game is too close to call on the spread, but it is that way because I expect fireworks. Fifty is a large number, but I think it will be covered.

diverse. nyg/sf > 42.5 - Just seems like a low number. Yes, you can say there are two good defenses. More pertinently, you could say that san francisco is at least top 3 red zone defenses in the league (haven't kept up w/ exact numbers). But the giants have a tendency to give up points and score points, and I look for that to be a major factor here. Yes, they are healthy and held the pats down, but I think that's due to the pass rush being a primary focus of nyg's d.  It shouldn't do as much here against the short passes that Alex Smith favors. This is a good matchup for SF's offense for that reason. NYG has a good matchup against SF because Eli has moved up into the elite in qbs this year and he's done it by getting the job done in the red zone. If anyone can overcome SF's iron curtain, it seems to be Eli. Also, though SF hasn't allowed a rushing td this year, they face brandon jacobs, who I'm calling will power through and snap that streak. With all the intensity in this matchup, it being called game of the week, and the giants need to win as much as they can to maintain position as they go into what many are calling the toughest remaining schedule in the league, I expect it to tend towards a shootout. I could see, at the low end of the spectrum, a 21-17 win for one team, but I think it much more likely both sides score at least 21. I don't really see either team winning in a blowout, either.

mia/was < 38 - Two horrible offenses against two solid defenses. I think teams do tend to adjust to injuries, so in some senseWashington's due to get it together and recover from their injuries, but I think even if they start to recover I only see WAS getting 20 here. And their injuries are as bad as they come.
       The dolphins offense which has been struggling all year shouldn't do particularly well against washington. I tend to favor them to win ats, but with their abyssmal home record I'm not so sure. This should be a defensive battle, and under 38.

buf + 6 @ dal -  Lot to be said here. 1) dallas has played close games against good teams. 2) lot of dallas fans, vegas tends to make the lines with that in mind, so I think they're overvalued here. 3) Unless dallas goes into the half with a ten point lead, I think romo will choke under pressure against that buffalo secondary and throw picks. Um. Could say more. Murray has been running well, that's a substantial worry. Balance of injuries favors Buffalo, with Austin out and a couple defensive starters, though buffalo's missing a few. Fitzpatrick more reliable than Romo. Dallas does well in november, that's a substantial worry, they're due to come on, and with NYG facing the schedule they are still have a shot at the division. Probably more to be said, but I think ultimately 6 is too many points to be giving to a good team like Buffalo.

jax + 3 @ ind - 2 major considerations. 1) the importance of indy's weak run defense against the phenomenal maurice jones-drew cannot be understated. 2) indy put up 17 pretty consistently earlier in the season, but not so much since addai has been out, and he looks to be out this week. Could break it down further, could say jacksonville's defense is better than atlanta's d, and indy put up exactly ZERO points on offense against atlanta (they got a pick 6, or a pick in really good field position.. think pick 6 though)... just the way they've been playing. Jax's weak offense is a concern, but I dunno. Um. Clark out. That's noice. Yeah. We'll just leave it at that.

Parlays - giants - already said why I liked the over. A lot of reasoning there probably carries over to why I like the giants +3.5, but I'll emphasize that SF's big thing has been their red zone d, and I just like eli to get it done more than others have in the past. Jacobs, too, seems well-suited to muscle in for their first red zone running TD (sf's defense, that is). I really like the half point here, with two good teams with playoff aspirations, I like knowing that the niners could win by 3 and I could profit.

Parlays - pats/jets - already said why I liked the spread bet. I think the total has come down because ne hasn't produced the past couple weeks, but I think that's largely due to the pass rush of the teams they have been facing. I think they'll get back on track here, and do more than their fair share to send this over. Also, with the pats weak defense, seems like the jets can put up a few points here.