Week 12 books

Aight, off on the GB one. Way too huge of a number to call, I guess. And it looked like, all thanksgiving, the refs were calling every penalty. All 3 games went under, and I'm going to be looking at nationally broadcasted games to see if they are more highly officiated and if that favors the under. I haven't been paying attention MNF/SNF/TNF so far, but it's something to consider.

So books for the rest of week 12, after that bleak week 11 (all books 4k bankroll) -


Book 1: Best spread/o/u -20 (after Thanksgiving loss 200 gb/det > 55.5)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520)
200 Car -3 @ Ind
200 Hou -3 @ Jax

Book 2: Diverse Spread/O/U-1220 (after same Thanksgiving loss for 200, loss on sf/bal over 100, push on tease play) 400
200 Pit/atl tease (130 juice, so 260)
200 Hou -3 @ jax
100 Car -3 @ ind
100 buf/nyj < 42
100 tease cin -.5 v cle + tb +10 (120)
100 cle/cin < 37.5

Book 3: Best moneyline -340
Off
Book 4: Diverse moneyline +500
600 Pit

Book 5: Parlays -1530
Off

Book 6: Actual Bets I'd Make -760
Duplicates Book 1.

Best bets -
Teaser. Pit/KC - can tease it down to 3, pittsburgh vs palko-lead kc at home in close enough to a pickem... ATL/Min - can tease it under 3, atlanta vs Petersonless min in atlanta. Few other injuries on min - shancoe harvin prolly will both play, but injured. rudolph, others. atl pretty healthy. julio jones comin back.

Car -3 @ Ind - yea, if indy gonna get one, this does look to be a good spot after the bye w/ addai prolly back in. And you can say a bunch about cellar-dweller teams doing well towards the end of the season cause lines go against them. But Indy shouldn't be able to keep up with carolina's high-powered offense. Indy with the worst defense in the nfl should let cam have a field day. Like I say, w Addai in and carolina's weak d too, I think this may be a shootout, but ultimately, indy will make mistakes offensively and lose this track meet. (Very tempted to go over 46, but even though I expect them to score this week, can't really trust 'em after the points they've put up the last few. )

Hou -3 @ jax - see the thursday post, basically houston's not passing that much, leinart may be okay, and houston still has jacksonville beat in every area when you get down to it. There's a reason this line has moved to -6.5, just puzzled as why it started so low. But thankful...

Other bets considered
Buf/nyj < 42 - jackson out, LT out. Both offenses playing poorly lately. Jets good d. Sanchez looks like he's breakin down a little on the picks, and buffalo might capitalize (hopefully not for pick sixes, but picks after drives). Still, this could go over. Spiller could play well for buffalo, buffalo could turn it around, and/or give it up to the jets who tend to play better towards the end of the year. So this is just going to be watched in book 2.

cin -.5 + tb + 10 tease - I like cincy at home in a pickem against cleveland, even though cleveland played better last week. There were some injuries defensively for jacksonville during that game, and cinci should be tougher competition all around. Cinci getting AJ green back. tampa bay showed something against green bay covering that 14 point spread there, and their d is pretty solid. The rankings don't really reflect it, but aside from Minnesota and Indy early, they've been playing the toughest of competition. They may have the toughest schedule to date. They've had a lot of close games where they held their opponents down, and should be able to at least keep it within 10. On the other side, could be hasselback's hampered by that elbow injury. CJ seems more of a liability - yes, he ran well against carolina, but that is carolina. That being said, tennessee has more playoff hopes, and probably wants it more.

cle/cin < 37.5 - Two tough defensive teams. Cinci been more of a passing team lately, and cle very high in the ratings defensively against the pass. That said, the first meeting of these two teams was over this number, and cleveland's playing well (for them) lately, and cinci I think can score. But it just seems decent when you look at it.

Pit money line - I think there's value here. I mean, say big ben goes down, pit's backups are still better than tyler palko and pittsburgh is still better than kc. This should be more like -900 for pit. You have to say there's a better than 90% chance pit wins here - it would take a hell of a lot of "any given sunday" juju to switch this outcome.