Tennis 5/21

Books-
Spread 1326
Totals 296

Bets- Fognini -3 -110 over Darcis

Tennis 5/18

So books -

Spread: 1126
Totals: 296

Bets:
Gasquet +5 against Ferrer -114

It feels really good to just have a plain winning day, after the month we've been having. We had considered wawrinka -4 over Seppi, glad we didn't take it, would have been a loss (also Djok -5 over Monaco, which pushed).

With how well we did last month, its natural to feel like we're unstoppable, and we fell into that trap. We took picks we were on the fence about in our pride, and we've paid for it. Learning to ride the highs and the lows is something I'm glad we're going through on paper, but hopefully we have learned to keep ourselves distant enough to take nothing when there's nothing there, and 4 picks when there are 4 picks there.

Tennis 5/16

berdych -3 over almagro -106

I know books need to be updated... they're in the range of 900/300 spread and totals respective.

Tennis 5/16

isner -2 over seppi -110
wawrinka -2.5 over tipsarevic -104

Tennis 5/11

And down we go (1-2). April was amazing but May has been killer.

Books:
Spread -  946
Totals - what it was

Play today is Djokovic/Tipsarevic < 20.5. The line is djok -5 but this is more like djok -3.5 unless there are 7-game sets. You always get a little extra with the under because of that but you're getting quite a lot here. And we think Djok can do a break a set here.

Tennis 5/9 - edit 5/10

Ow.

Spread: 1214
Totals: 536

Bets are -

berdych -3.5 over monfils -120
simon -2.5 over tips -125
djokovic -4 over wawrinka -109

Tennis 5-7 & 5-8

Rough loss, think we did take it below -3 so using -120 juice.

Books:
Spread:1838
Totals:536

Bets -
5-7
youzhny over marti -4.5 -114
baghdatis -1.5  over garcia-lopez +114

5-8
400 gasquet -1.5 over bellucci -104
EDIT: also ramos -3.5 over delbonis -104

200 on each unless otherwise noted ofc. Can you believe this, lines a day in advance? Crazy.

EDIT: So its a true push with Youzhny winning and another loss (at least no juice) on Baghdatis. Man he's been godawful to us this month, 0-2 and the others we had considered he would have lost. Time to put the hammer down on all this considering of Baghdatis as a pick, when he should be a fade the way he's playing. We're adapting too slowly.

Tennis 5/5

2-0 for the day. Dat Andujar line... we shoulda made it a lock, it jumped out to both of us.

Very happy to be back in the black for the tournament week (7-5 so far, Note to self for future calculations 5-5 in May so far).

Books:
Spread:  2318
Totals: 536

OK so. The play is
400 Gasquet -? -?

The line right now is -3 -103, but I coulda swore when we settled on it it was 2.5, and that was a factor in making it a lock. So professional here... We'll see if dad remembers, and set the juice at -120 as a penalty if he remembers it -2.5, regardless of outcome. Otherwise its taken -3 -103, still as a lock.

Tennis 5/4

0-1 w a postponement. EDIT 1-1, ATP website derped but neiminen had won and covered.

Todays are
andujar -3 -104 over rosol
lopez -2.5 -108 over tomic


Oh we're starting a fucking around book, money line. We experimented earlier with money line in tennis and took a loss, and in football were not impressed with the small win we had given the risks. So this is purely for fun. Bets here will be 100 on dogs and to win 100 on favs... and if you look at some of the numbers you'll understand why the units are smaller, and why this is a fuck-around book. With my expected bankroll size, actually playing these would mean putting down over 30% of bankroll on gasquet for a big 2.5% profit. Sure, it's a "sure thing" but real money? Yea right. Anyway, bets here -
kohlschrieber even up -440
gasquet over de la nava -1300
bagh +175 x2

Tennis 5-3

Ouch, 1-2 again. Going to watch Baghdatis as a possible fade if he keeps having sets like that.

Books (4k bankroll, both in the black)-
Spread: 1950
Totals: 536

Bets (200 on)-
lopez -4 over stakhovsky -116
nieminen -2.5 over veic -116

Tennis 5/2

Tough day (1-2). Shoulda gotten away from Gimeno-Traver - he hadn't done anything recently. Was able to get away from a Davydenko play for the same reason, that woulda been disastrous at -145.

Books (4k bankroll, both in black)-
Spread: 2210
Totals: 536

Gonna be-
baghdatis -4 over brown -112
cipolla -3 v munoz de la nava -118
nalbandian -4.5 v bedene -108

200 ofc.

Tennis 5/1

What a nice way to start the tournament week (2-0)! And there are c. 30 lines for tomorrow, I love it.

Books -
Spread: +2444
Totals: +536

Bets-
200 on
starace -3 over goffin -101
gimeno-traver -3 over navarro -112
fognini -2.5 over paire -105

Win-loss record for April:
 Spread - 19-8-2.
Totals - 1-0-1.

Pushes aside, 70.37% win rate. AMAZING month.

Tennis 4/30

200 Tomic -3.5 over Rochus -114
200 Dodig -2.5 over Unger -113

Books -
Spread: +2044
Totals: +536
Sets:  +174

Tennis 4/26

There we go! Books -

Spread: +2266
Totals: +536
Sets:  +174

Bets -
200 lopez -2.5 v nieminen -104
200 baghdatis -1.5 v fognini +106
200 troicki -3.5 v bachinger -111

Tennis 4/25

-104 yesterday., all from that ridiculous juice on a 2-2 day.

Today -

200 anderson -1.5 over delbonis -106
200 raonic -2 over andreev -112
400 lopez -2.5 over cipolla -117

Still kinda juicy, if not as bad as yesterday.

Tennis 4/24

200 andujar -4.5 -133
200 garcia-lopez -3 +101
200 dodig -2 -120
200 hanescu -3 -123

Healthy juice here...

Tennis 4/21

200 djokovic -4 over berdych -113
200 nadal/simon < 19 -117

Its tough to bet on both semis, this deep in the tournament. You have to wonder in a spot like this if you're trying to push past an average performance so far (5-4-1) and bound to turn your small gain into a loss.

But I can't really get away from it. Djok is 8-1 against Berdych, only loss on grass. His 6-4 6-2 today is slightly underwhelming for him considering his opponent, but he pointed to his emotions following his grandfather's death as part of the trouble and I believe it. I also think he's going to get it under control and go win one for the gipper. This is a tough line for the books to make, they're pretty pinned into Djok -4 since it seems the most likely result, but I see 5 as more likely than 3 here. I know you got a server like Berdych who sees a ton of tiebreakers, but here on clay....

As for the under w/ nadal, Simon just doesn't have the weapons to hurt Nadal on clay at all. He's not going to outrally him, no one can, and that's Simon's game. I'm taking the under because it's hard to see Simon winning a set, and in 2 sets the under's a better bet than -5.5 cause 6-4 6-3 a push and not a loss. Also saves a few juice and I sorely need that here, laying out nearly -120 on both these. Can't get away from em though.

Books-
spread: +1370
Totals: +536
Set: +174

Tennis 4/20

200 tsonga -2.5 over simon -107
200 murray/berdych > 22 -101

Books-
Game Spread: +1584

Totals: +336

Set Line: +174

Tennis 4/18

A rough push (1-1-1, net change -$8) and I'm going to hear it from my father for counseling against Fognini over Llodra. We cut more losses than wins though, so its not that disconcerting.

Bets to come. Early lean to Melzer -2.5 over Benneteau. Lots of large lines today, we need to get more comfortable with those.

EDIT. tomorrow's match:
400 melzer -2.5 -112 over benneteau
200 simon -4 -116 over gil

Tennis 4/17

Another good day. Books:
 Game Spread: +1840

Totals: +336

Set Line: +174

Tennis for 4/17:

200 volandri -3.5 -125 vs Gianessi

200 youzhny -3 -104 v Gil

400 andujar -3 117 vs. del Bonis

Andujar is going to bury delbonis. Send him on his bike.

Tennis 4/16

400 melzer -3.5 over kazbot -112
200 stepanek -2.5 over nieminen -110
200 kohlschrieber -3.5 over ruffin -125

5-0 baby! no tennis 4/14

Well we KILLED today, 3-0, now 5-0-1 on these two lil concurrent tourneys. Feeling more and more confident. Need to start calling some locks, really, we feel better about some of these than others and the money should reflect it.

Books-
Game Spread: +1462
Totals: +336
Set Line: +174

-A note: Andujar 4/13 refers to his first match, the only one that could be bet at time of post on 4/12. Sucks they had him play 2, we generally like him to beat Cipolla, but for that, even at -3.5.
-In that vein, I ain't scurred but I is, no need to stay perfect but there's just nothing to attack 4/14. Andreev too up and down to bet on his matches, we like Monaco ofc but @ -5.5? Too risky. We should possibly take isner -2 (-118 bleh), but IDK. Same excuse here. Anyway, early rounds do seem to be easier pickings lately, and there's a new tourney starting soon enough.

Tennis 4/13 and musings on 4/12

For tomorrow, 200 on -
cipolla -1.5 +110
lopez +3 -110 over berlocq
andujar -2 -104

me- "Feliciano lopez plays berlocq..."
dad- "How many's lopez favored by?"
me- "Well I guess we're taking lopez +3."
Does seem like it will be close, and hard to tell which way it goes, but we'll take the dog here. We like andujar -2 a lot, but not quite as a lock. Figure cipolla probably wins, and we'll take the positive juice.

Re 4/12, gotten so sick of how late they leave the lines, I copied the lines down last night and we "bet" on them this eve before checking scores. Quotes cause we decided there wasn't anything worth playing. We were pretty close in our guesses though, were seriously considering betting Querrey's match went 3 and it did. We also thought Fish might continue to go south(he was -5). Wish we'd known his no-name opponent was a Houston native (tournament there), and had the guts to play money line. May as well wish it was real money too, while I was at it. Does make me want to go for ze big moneys like a crazy man occasionally in the future though.

Funny story though, my father said isner -4.5 might be worth something, but risky, and I thought I might have fixed the problem. I was talking about isner/zeballos < 21.5, because it allowed 6-4 6-4 which isner -4.5 didn't. And, so I said, it's so hard to cover 4.5 in 3 sets.  Isner manages to win 6-7 6-4 6-2, covering 5 games with a lost set.....

Well I still tend to think long run the under will outperform in situations like this... 6-4 6-4 seems more common than 3-set 5+games covers (note that other 2-set outcomes are the same - 7-6 requires a 6-2 other set for both the total and the side, as 7-5 requires a 6-3 for both). Yet this is probably something I should look up. After all, a lot of matches do seem to have final sets with large margins of victory, as one player is mentally or physically exhausted.

Tennis 4/11

Took lopez -3 before I looked at the result. It pushed. Here its impact is duly noted.

Frustrated by how late these lines go up... There's nothing we want at Hassan tomorrow, but
its even money, as it always is, whether they'll get lines up on the US clay court championship Thursday matches before I sleep.

Tennis 4/10

200 hanescu (EDIT: -3. derp) -115 200 ramos/riba < 20.5 i forget the juice and it just started so we'll say -110. Was likely better juice, but possibly worse.

Edit: Winner winner chicken dinner...

Tennis 4/1

200 Djok -3 -118

EDIT (AFTER):
Books-
Game Spread: +642
Totals: -64 ---- no +136
Set Line: +174

EDIT again - checked my march last 1/2 math, forgot to enter ebden/querrey over win. Totals is at +136. Spread is right.

Tennis 3/29

200 Fish -3 over Monaco -104

Update + Tennis 3/27

Books:
Game Spread: +650
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174

What started out a horrible tournament at 0-3 has turned around well as we won 5 straight. There have been a lot of revenge matches this tournament I've bet on, Tipsarevic over Nalbandian, Almagro over Verdasco, and one other I played I don't remember which (lost the first, won the last two). In all 3 cases, it seems like the books have expected the general public to bet for a repeat of last match, as the lines seem a little skewed toward the underdog who had upset previously. Something to look for in the future.

Of course, it's best to be wary because sometimes the "worse" player's style counters the higher ranked player.

***
A note on notation. if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games -115, it's a $230 bet to win 200. However, if a bet says 200 John Doe +/-x games +115, it's a $200 bet to win $230. It's just easier this way, and bets more on positive juice games than if I did aggravating math and set positive juice games at "to win 200."

Course I could take it a step further and make both positive and negative juice $200 bets to win x, that would optimize it so I'm putting even more on positive juice games respectively, but again - I'm lazy.

***
Bets for tomorrow will go here

Tennis 3/26

200 on
gasquet -3 -122
fish -1.5 -105
almagro +1.5 -117

Tennis 3/23

Unless further notice, going big tomorrow. Should probably cut some, but not sure which. Prolly Nishikori, seems to struggle a lil with big servers and Lacko very solid.

200 Melzer -3 -103
200 Nalbandian -1.5 +114
200 Nishikori -2.5 -110

200 Tsonga/Malisse <20.5 +118
200 Berdych/Mahut <19.5 -106

Tennis 3/22

Bleh, turns out those were more than retirement rumors. Shoulda taken Gonzo.. or rather the over betting on Gonzo winning a set. Update on books:

Game Spread: +256
Totals: -64
Set Line: +174

Today taking 200 Ebden/Querrey over 22.5 -106. Ebden's had a very good year, and Querrey looked miserable in the doubles final at Indian Wells, and reportedly at his loss. Spraying balls everywhere with that goofy smile on. We think Ebden gets a set, and Dad thinks Querrey won't fuck up so badly he loses to Ebden in 2

Tennis 3/21

Going on now, but I didn't look. Well, I did see that I missed the first just now, but had called it placed before. So the missed bet was 200 nalbandian darcis under 20.5 -108. The other is 200 mahut gonzalez over 22 -115.

Actually canceling the latter, all his wins were on clay. Almost makes me want to take mahut -2 instead, but lets just stay away.

Tennis 3/17

Book update -

Game Spread: +482

Will edit in picks for the semis, leaning towards rafa over fed and djok over isner, of course, but we'll see how many games we'd have to lay...

200 rafa -2 -113

tennis 3/16

200 nalbandian +5.5 -116

Tennis 3/14 other

200 Simon -1.5 -106

2011-2012 NFL season best bets summary with notes

Before I begin, let me say the written balance reflects balance at the start of each week. For full juice statistics, you will have to do the math on the losses. If there's a "v" instead of an "@" I bet the home team.

Week 4: 0
UNKNOWN

Week 5: -160
400 SD -3.5 @ DEN    WIN
200 NO -6 @ CAR      LOSS
200 TAM +3 @ NO     LOSS

Week 6: -200 (~1-2 ATS)
400 NYJ -7 v MIA       WIN
200 NE -7 v DAL         LOSS
200 PHI -1 @ WAS     WIN

Week 7: +180 (~3-3 ATS)
400 DEN +3 @ MIA (no juice)    WIN
200 PIT -3.5 @ ARI                    WIN
200 SD -2 @ NYJ                       LOSS

Week 8: +560 (~5-4 ATS)
400 buf -5 v was         WIN
200 ne -2 @ pit          LOSS
200 nyg -9.5 v mia      LOSS
200 no -13 @ stl         LOSS

Week 9: +300  (~6-7 ATS)
400 sf -3.5 @ was       WIN
200 pit -3 v bal             LOSS
200 gb -5 @ sd           WIN
200 kc - 4ish (not taking yet, line moving) v mia   LOSS

Week 10: +460 (~8-9 ATS)
400 NE +1 @ nyj     WIN
200 hou -3 @ tb       WIN
200 atl/no > 50          LOSS

Week 11: +840  (~10-10 ATS)
400 buf +2.5 @ mia      LOSS
200 ne -14.5 v kc         WIN
200 dal -7.5 @ was      LOSS
200 nyj -4.5 @ den      LOSS

Week 12: +160 (~11-13 ATS)
400 Tease Pitt -3 v KC + Atl -2.5 v Min (130 juice, so act. 520)   WIN
200 Car -3 @ Ind                         WIN
200 Hou -3 @ Jax                        WIN
200 gb/det > 55.5                         LOSS

Week 13: +740 (~14-14 ATS)
200 NE -13 + den/min < 44.5      LOSS
200 NO -2.5 + SF -6.5               WIN
200 GB -5.5                                 LOSS

Week 14: +500 (~15-16 ATS)
400 pats -1 + jets -3           WIN
200 Saints -3                      WIN
200 chicago/denver under some mid-30s number (check the youtube, too lazy)     WIN

Week 15: +1300 (~18-16 ATS)
400 saints -1.5 @ min + ten -.5 @ ind    LOSS
200 gb -6.5 @ kc + sea/chi <43            LOSS
200 cin pk @ stl + ne -1 @ den            WIN
200 steelers +10 @ sf w/ the pats -3 v miami.   LOSS

Week 16: +660 (~19-19 ATS)
400 NO - 6.5 (Lock)         WIN
200 NE -2.5 + NYG +10 (tease)    WIN
200 SF -2                   PUSH

Week 17: +1260 (~21-19 ATS)
200 pats -3 v bills + 49ers -3.5 @ rams (130)     WIN
200 jets +3 @ mia                                           WIN
200 bal straight up @ cinci (125)                    WIN

End regular season: + 1860 (~24-19 ATS) Note: ~ shows approximate due to loss of data on week 4. I suspect I was 1-2, so possibly 25-21 total.

Wildcard weekend: +0 playoffs
400 Giants (no juice)
200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5

Divisional Round: +260
400 NO (-120) NOTE - I think this line was -3, but if it was SU, they lost that too.
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)

Championship Weekend: -120
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)

Superbowl: +280
200 Pats -2.5

End Playoffs: +60 (3-3 ATS)

SUMMARY

Overall numbers were probably 28-24 (assuming 1-2 week 4). 53.8% is not great by any stretch, 53% is a good approx. breakeven number (52.5 if all bets -110 but they weren't). The reason for the sizable $ win is my amazing lock percentage - 9/2 regular season (81%), 10/3 overall (77%). I bet these twice and hard so the results look like 38-27 (which would be a 58.5% success rate, a great but not unheard of number for a handicapper).

ONLY playing locks in the future seems appealing at first glance. 10/3 assuming -110 juice on locks would have net 2680 instead of 1940. On non-locks, I was 18-21 (46%). But of that 18-21, I was 3-9 weeks 5-10, and 15-12 weeks 11-17 (and since it's an odd number, breaking the halves into weeks 5-11 and 12-17 would show 4-11 and 14-10 respectively). If I'm correct that I got better as the season went on, non-locks deserve another chance - at least on paper.

P.S. I use first person pronouns for ease, but what credit is due is due also to my father, who was as much a part of this as I.


Some notes on math errors:
-You'll notice a $40 difference with this and most of the regular season (this is 40 lower) if you page through. I had failed to account for the 40 juice lost between week 5 and week 6.

-You'll noticed I forgot to drop 20 extra juice from the steeler tease being busted if you page through the playoffs. The numbers here are accurate.

-When I did the math originally I thought I ended the regular season +2000 even. The +1860 here seems right, but I can't figure the issue. Either way- +2000 would be great, yet +1860 still pretty great.

Tennis 3 - 15?

I am ron burgandy? Dunno why there seems to be none tomorrow. Thursday taking isner -4 +107. Going to update books and edit this.

Tennis Books:
Game Spread: +82
Totals: +152
Set Line: +174
Money Line: -642

A few notes -
-Didn't have juice written down for several of the indian wells bets, assuming -110 which is rather unfavorable for betonline. Not going well this tournament, 3 and 3 I think but down 90 (games spread only bets so far) taking that stupid fish -4 at -131 juice. Nalb +2 +106 was very sexy. If I was a little more disciplined I'd be in the black, but still testing the waters with tennis betting.
-Money line bets suck in any sport, there's so much juice attached. I doubt I'll ever actually play money line in tennis, as you can see how inauspicious it's been on paper. Certainly am not looking at taking those bets as I look at lines right now, so may as well call that book done.


P.S. Probably going to do a football summary right about meow.

tennis 3/13

nalbandian +2 +106

fish -4 -131 isner -3 -106

Tennis 3/10

wawrinka -4  almagro -1.5 troicki +1.5

NFL Superbowl ATS

Playoff Book (+300 even I believe, will check later):
200 Pats -2.5 (-110)

Not going to bet props, but I like the brady over 320 passing yards at even money if those are the odds, and I like both teams to kick a field goal over 37 yards if its still at +200.

Here's my yt vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWYkYeBbzyg

Tennis 1/27/12 and 1/29/12

Took Djok -5, he covered it exactly how we drew it up, in 5 sets with a 6-1 set. It works though. Taking djok/rafa over 39.5 in the finals that probably just started but I won't see till later so don't say anything, all ye followers.

Let me update the books.
Game Spread: +174
Totals: -48 (200 Djok/rafa over 39.5, forgot the juice we'll say -114 it may have been that and its suitably unfavorable)
Set Line: +174
Money Line: -642

Ay carumba, just googled the semi to make sure djok did win by 6 games, and found out the results of the final. At least I prolly cover that 39.5 from what it said, but that really sucks.

Tennis 1/26/27

Took nadal +2.5 sets -400 before we watched it (didn't update here, call me a liar). Dad wanted the game line +2.5 games, but habit from nfl I said stay away from 2 bets on one match. Oh well, this is like Who's Line Is It Anyway, the important thing is we watch tennis. When we feel comfy, going to reset, positive or negative, and get srs.

Taking djok -5 games here in the other semi. Dunno book totals.

Tennis 1/26?

1-1 moves us to -48 (totals book). Bleh, keep firing away to acclimate.

Tempted to mess with this -2.5 sets line, nadal +2.5 sets -400 sounds like free money - he's gotta get one set you'd think. Kinda feels like a sucker bet though, there's 80 juice between the bets - guess there's always more on money lines things, prolly part of why I tend to dislike money line types. And I guess they kinda figure occasionally the dog has a bad day and does lose in straight sets... wonder how often Nadal's done it to Fed in serious tourneys, since he's I think 17-9 in their meetings. Course they are usually on different halves of the draw, this their first semi meeting.

I'll edit this if I decide to play that or Nadal +2.5 games +101. Seems like a close call, so tempted with the dog. The humidity was making nadal's balls hang up instead of kicking against berdych, and berdych was flattening out his shots. But I don't think fed will go for quite as much. Course he'll have fewer errors when he does.

Tennis 1/23

Tough day for GS/totals books, 3 losses -400, -232 repectively make those stand at -26 (GS), -32 (tot). We don't love any of the game spreads, but we do think djok ferrer will go 3 sets, and delpo/fed 4 or more. We haven't started to talk locks yet, but I like delpo/fed over better. Djok playing lights out and all, but ferrer is very good and we're kinda deep for 3-setters. If we weren't just getting a feel, IDK if I could take djok/ferrer under.

Totals (-32):
200 djok/ferrer < 31.5 -107
200 delpo/fed > 38.5  -108

Tennis 1/22

Update cause I'm bored. Books are at -642 ML +374 GS +200 totals. Lets see, wanted Llodra +8 cause if there's a weak spot in the top players I see it as murray. Didn't go too hot. Good news is I bet ON the other top players, who covered easily. Delpo beat his 6 games by like 5, roger his 7 by 4 or 5 or so (stopped checking at 5-1 in the 3rd). That 36.5 under was just gold, 24ish games played. Guess its toughish to have a 4-setter under that without hugely temperamental play, but since its possible I just dunno what the books were thinking. No way it was going 5, looked a lot like 3.

We'll see what the wise one says, but I lean to jock to cover 9.5 games, he just murdered a guy on the guy's birthday. Merciless. Hewitt with the home crowd could play hard every game though. Slight lean to Gasquet +4. I again think murray -9.5 against kukushkin kinda high, but I guess Kukushkin may not belong here.

Lines a lil tougher, murray/djok both getting tougher lines than fed/delpo were. 9.5 is kinda like the 14.5 of football. 6-3 6-3 6-3 won't do it.

So picks tsonga -6 +114, kukushkin +9.5 +116, nish/tsonga < 37.5 -116. All fav juice bets to win 200, all dog juice 200 a bet. Tempting to play djok, but we also found ourselves liking the over that tiny total 26.5, so we stay away. You know, I wonder how parlays in tennis work. Do they let you do large favorite with under at 2.6/1? Or the reverse, obv. They can't... tooooo much correlation. No, that's straight causation.

NFL Championship Weekend

Playoff Book (-100)
400 Giants +10 and Pats pick'em -140 (tease)

Giants/Niners being as close to call as it is, you let me get 10 points in a teaser against the weaker offense, going to do it all day. But a few reasons I think the giants at least even money to win here:
-Niners got gifted some against saints, as excellent at causing turnovers as they are.
-Niners get a lot of picks jumping routes. Eli likes to throw deep balls if he can force single coverage, that are actually rather difficult to pick and not something the niners have had to defend against much this year. They split with the cardinals, the other team that comes to mind that likes these passes.
-Giants pass rush plays a bigger role here - Smith has really struggled against good pass rushes.

There are plenty of great things to be said about both, but those last two points make me think its a good stylistic matchup. That said, the rain favors the 9ers.

Pats pick 'em
-I know bal's tougher competition than their sched this year, but what hasn't been talked about is how few elite passing teams baltimore's faced this year (and the chargers stomped em).
-The patriots defense has been consistently underrated and they're playing good now, though most don't believe it. They say pats played so well last week because it was the broncos. There's truth there, but damnit if that asshole bellicheck didn't light a fire. You could tell the difference was more than just Broncos.

Tennis 1/21

Trying to get a jump on this fast moving Auzzie open. 1-1 so far tonight, -22 = 174 GS book. For tomorrow:

200 delpo -6 -105 v kohlschreiber
200 fed -7 -140 v tomic

And we'll start a separate totals book w/ 200 delpo/kohl < 36.5 -111. Guess how we think that match will go.

Tennis 1/20

2-1 game spread, 0-2 money line. totals +196 GS -642 ML. As I see wawrinka and Almagro's rankings for the Australian, I wonder if he wasn't +265, if so money line is 165 better off, but still shitty. It doesn't matter, we're in fire-away-to-get-a-feel mode right now as we start.

I ran out the door to work just getting the game spreads down, so that's all I bet today. Some may be in progress, but scouts honor I took 'em.


GS Book: +196
200 Gasquet -1.5 +105
200 Benneteau +1.5 -116
200 Llodra +8 +104


Just as an aside, for tennis betting betonline's lines blow bovada (bodog)'s out of the water. Probably more a testament to how sucky bodog is, they were the same for football. But tennis it's so striking, look on the money line someone's +600 opp -800 at betonline, will be +540 -900 at bovada. That's just an ex, not an actual line, but I saw it EVERY game.

Tennis 1/19

Ouch, not a very auspicious start. Today we got:

Book 1: Game spread (-250)
200 Kohlschreiber -5 +104
200 Isner -1.5 -101
200 Delpo -7.5 +120


Book 2: Money Line (-277)
265 Wawrinka
100 Dolgopolov (+120)

Tennis Betting

Starting tennis betting.

Troicki straight up against Kukushkin -277
simon -2 games against benneteau -125

Edit: units for those bets which are in progress but I swear I haven't checked - we'll make 2 sep books, maybe 3 if we do set betting, for now all ML will be to win 100, 4k bankroll. May change it once I make with the maths. Other bets same as NFL, to win 400 locks to win 200 others. Feel confident about simon but didn't discuss lockworthiness, saying 200. Now lets go check...

Divisional Results

As per my comment on youtube, last week was:
400 NO (-120)
200 BAL -.5 + NE -6.5 (130)
-280 so -100 total playoffs to date. First week 400 giants -200 (normal juice) steelers saints tease (steelers leg busted)

Divisional Weekend notepad

 Last week was okay, atlanta's secondary was who we thought they were, giants in a big game were (mostly) who we thought they were. That pit-den game was a shame, but its like the man says: sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes tebow has a career day and there's questionable reffing. +180 on the week since the lock won.


Here's my notepad for this week-

Taken:
400 NO -3 (120)

Possibilities:
Sides-
Texans +8ish - line movement.. But its BAL in BAL, very tough. But so many points, these teams are mirrors right now.
NYG +8 - GB healthy. NY d playin awesome. What's weather, and what does that mean? Same q for BAL, NE games
NE -13.5 - Follow DEN injuries. Check Elway. If 2ndary injuries + Elway says pass, got to. Tempted still.

Totals-
NYG/GB > 52 - It seems like no one can do enough to keep GB down, but Giants D playing well.
Picks from eli to gb 2ndary could be good/bad but most likely bad for this total.

SF/NO > 47.5 - saints offense + saints defense. But you could say niners offense + niners defense = under. Seriously though, if Saints score early at all it should go over, and there's chance enough that its over even if they don't w how explosive their offense is and their defense's possibly struggling against SF. Could even backdoor cover over if niners blow 'em out, like the STL game.


will brian dawkins play? bruton? (other safety) NE healthy

delanie walker play? check NO injuries for over/under

gb healthy. NYG bradshaw?

bal healthy. hou lots of minor injs... check johnson.

Wildcard Weekend

EDIT:
Final picks - 400 Giants (no juice) 200 6.5pt teaser(120 juice) saints -4 + steelers -1.5. Again feel the best about one leg of a teaser (PIT), but the other has to be scary. Roth Full Prac 2 days. Saints -4 scary as teasers go but PIT free leg and Saints the best other one on the board IMO.


Got to figure this today. Been waiting on the damn injury report which isn't showing up, going to have to track it all over the net. But leans right now:

400 NYG -3 v ATL
200 NO -3.5 v DET + PIT -2 @ DEN (7pt tease, 30 juice)
200 HOU -3

I didn't want to play all the games but I feel pretty good about those picks actually. The only total I have a slight lean to is the under 34 in the DEN/PIT game.

Ironically I've also got a lean to CIN +10, and a possible hedge play of DEN +9 and DEN under 13 or w/e. If denver goes over they should stay w/in 9, so one of those should hit, and both could very well hit (PIT 13 - DEN 6 seems a plausible score here). But maybe Den gets down 10 or so, desperation forces Tebow to throw up prayers every down and he ends up giving up a pick 6 and getting a crazy touchdown (PIT 30 - DEN 16).

I'll edit this for final picks.

The end (ish)

So the NFL regular season comes to a close. I will probably reconsolidate and post my books from week 5-17 and check my math, but it looks like I end +2000 on 4k, 51%. I'm pretty happy with it for a first attempt, but I have some concerns. I'm happy my locks did so well, 9-2 from week 5-17 (2-2 old format). That bodes well for next year. I'm not happy to say that just playing locks at same prices I'd be somewhere around +3100, so I was probably something like 13-17 elsewhere (13 x 200 = 2600 - (17 x 220 = 3740) = -1140), meaning I hit very close to 50% overall -- 22 - 19 (53.6%). That would be a very minor win indeed had I not varied my bet sizes considering I'm more likely to lay 10 extra juice (or 20 on 7-pt teasers) than 5 or 10 less juice (although most frequently normal juice). And it's only so large of a win with varied bet sizes because of the large percentages bet, very risky play indeed (5% on non-locks, 10% on locks).

With that being said, breaking the season in halves tells a more optimistic story. As I was 6-0 through week 10 on locks and I believe at +850 it looks like I was something like 4-10 aside from locks (6-0 = +2400 - ((10 x 220 = 2200) - (4 x 200 = 800) = 1400)) = 1k). That's even more rough math, but if correct I was something like 9-7 on nonlocks from weeks 11-17. So I think I'm showing improvement overall, ATS wise, and even though I fell down on 2 of 5 locks in the 2nd half of the season I feel like one of those was avoidable. I ended better than I started so I feel like I'm learning. I feel good enough to play for money next year.

I'm also quitting NBA betting for now. Games each day is a drag, a real time-waster, and this shit is hard to call with the 60-70 game seasons and these players' egos.
I like the NFL much better. I may try to follow the NBA a little with the idea of putting a little money down on it some day, but I'm done keeping books, and I think if I were to break into another venue it would more likely be NCAA football or another professional sport with low-game seasons.


I will probably start a separate NFL book for playoffs, it seems like a different animal than regular season but I will probably give it a go.

EDIT - Looks like I missed $40 juice I think week 5 or 6 - the one with SD over denver - can't be assed to change each post since then. But +2000 not +2040. All the other math as far as profit/loss is right, yet to check numbers ATS etc.